Good morning, Thursday, March 30th.
Today we're talking about inventory and the sudden crash. Not that It's been a slow roll, but it's definitely not the expected increase in inventory that we need. And it might be good. It actually might be a good thing. So let's get into this. Today we're talking about three things you need to know, Ryan Lundquist.
HEADLINESAppraiser. h f a. Again, in the news, it's actually gone today. And then talk about a little bit more about the big picture of the housing inventory. Let's get moving. There we go. Inventory watch. Let's see. Okay. Ryan Lundquist. This guy is my muse. He's I don't know how to explain it other than this guy has just raised the bar, raised the level of what I offer up.
He did this right here, and I never thought to do anything like this, which is why I think it's amazing because these little tiny graphs that he does allows me to look at Santa Clara County and see what's going on with them as well. So for example, I took this and I spent about an hour looking at it and transferred it over to Santa Clara County.
This paragraph right here is I think why we need to go here. So let me take this. This is Ryan's Sacramento appraisal blog.com. It's right here. I'm not hiding it at all. You're very welcome to take a look at it all day long. Sellers are definitely hibernating, and I think the reason why is because of this.
But let's take a look at this number real quick. First of all, digest this a little. This is three counties, Sacramento, Placer, oh four counties, El Dorado, YTO Placer in Sacramento, right? Four counties. So the numbers are quite larger than what we're Going to see, but not by much. But historically, by this time, this year, we are into 75 8,000 on average.
and in Sacramento. In the Sacramento region, the four counties, and maybe I'll do this next week with four counties, so the South Bay or what have you, we're down Sacramento is down to maybe 4,500, so almost 60% we're not as bad. We're about 25% off. So we're, averaging 27 about, I would say 28, 2700.
Now we're about 2000 over three months. These are new listings. Santa Clara County, only single-family homes, right? Not, not.
condos, mobile homes, townhouses, what have you. Inventory's tight inventory is way down. And I have to say that it's down across the nation too. Let's see. That's another thing that we're Going to talk about. Housing inventory. This is across the. Right now we have just under 600,000 units for sale. It's not as bad as it was in January 2022.
It popped up a little bit. I came back down, but inventory overall is hurting a little bit. This is a new thing I found. I actually put it on Wednesdays, but I wanted to show you that I saw found this. , it takes roughly 8.2. We have 8.2 months of inventory left. It's months of supply. So if we stop putting new houses on the market, we would run out of homes in 8.2 months.
Let me move this over so you can see my fat hat out of the way, right?
During January it went up a little bit, 10. This is February reporting. Now we're at the end of March, so that number's Going to be a little bit further down. All right. Let's see. So where did this one come from? Oh, this is Realty Times. Yeah. I March. Housing report, spring Thaws Lure Buyer back in the house.
I don't think so. I think demand is pretty consistent maybe across the nation. But here's the. , we don't have enough supply. That's keeping values where they are. I think values are going to stay pretty stable. I think what we're seeing is we're actually seeing multiple offers again, because while there.
Lower demand than last year, the year before. The year before.
That demand has dropped significantly, but so has supply. So it's pretty much the same thing that we're seeing here in Silicon Valley. That's my contention. That's what we're seeing. We're seeing houses. And last yesterday, I told you, I think it was 60% of the houses that sold, 42 out of the 60 last week.
Sold over list price. And if you know any, Ty, typically when you have things that sell over list price, it's sold in the first seven days. That means it was priced correctly, which means you attract enough buyers, which means you're Going to have multiple offers on the table, which gives the seller control.
It gives the seller leverage, it gives you what you want when you're selling, hurts the buyers, but it helps the sellers. We're back into that. I see now without going into detail, everything in red is lower except for this. Yeah, everything in red this week is lower, so we're stabilizing. But if you look, they're not super far down from each other.
This one went down 30, and this one went down. That was 130. That one went down quite a. There's one that went down, like one, I think that I remember this one right here, 43 went down five. So
I think there are buyers out there and these are, I don't know these areas at all. I'm studying these areas. I'm studying 'em to see what's going on. I see a track record Phoenix area. You see the houses, the inventory is tracked down consistently. Las Vegas, which was our canary in the coal mine, if you remember me talking about that.
The numbers are consistently going down, not by droves, but also that means that we're not in fluxing the supply of houses to sell unless you're in Cape Coral, which is going up a little bit. If you look back, it's been going up just a bit. Now, remember, I'm pulling these numbers from real, t.realtor.com, right?
I pull these numbers from realtor.com, and those numbers fluctuate by the minute or by the, I think 30 minutes. It's not real-time. So I did a San Jose search, right? It was just San Jose, a proper search. That's 270, but actual MLS. , it's 338. So if you look, I did 338 right here. You can't really see. Let me move my big fat head.
Hang on a second there. See 338 down here. Bottom left-hand corner, if you can't see my cursor, it just goes to show how realtor.com, Zillow, and all the aggregator sites, they're not Going to be as accurate as the MLS feed that we send you as real estate. We've had, I didn't even see how many close. Let's take a look.
70. What's the big picture here? What is the big picture here? We have eight months of supply. In January we had 10, so it ratcheted down a little bit and that supply came in, but also homes got bought up a little bit.
Housing inventory is still Going to be tight. It's going to be tight. Buyers are out there, even though there are reports out there saying that buyers are coming out in drove. They're still snapping up homes. They're not doing it at the same clip that they were doing over the last three years, which was what I described as a firestorm, not just a hot market.
It was a firestorm. It was outta control. People were panic buying, which that's when you get into trouble. That's why I preferred to work with sellers. Then now I wanna work with buyers because buyers have the opportunity to take advantage of this. Cal f h a call h f a, sorry, it's just 20 years of saying f h a.
It's hard to say HFA. So look, zero down payment program, it's equity-based, it's done by California. There are 300 million available for this program. Let me go over here so you can look at my face. If you bring in, if you buy a million dollar house, let's say your income acquires or allows it, You buy a million dollar house, California will put 20% down, but they own 20% of the equity of that house on top of that $200,000, whatever that down payment is.
So let's say it goes down and then 10 years down the road is worth $2 million. Is to keep it simple. There are a million dollars in equity. California gets $200,000 plus its down payment. It's fair to you because you're walking away with $800,000 less, all the closing costs, all that other crap, and all that stuff, right?
But it's a great opportunity.
My concern is, when you give somebody something for free, they don't take care of it, and I'm just as guilty as everybody else. I was given a car when I was a kid and I didn't take care. I didn't have, it, my aunt gave it to me. My parents didn't really show me how to take care of it.
I should have taken care of it. I was lazy. I was a lazy kid. Just like my kids are lazy. , you see my pilot driving around the neighborhood, it's because they don't take care of it. They don't it's not theirs that they don't inherently care. You look at their bedrooms, and you know that they don't care.
Anyway, my problem is if you give them something. They might not take care of it. They might not care if they walk away from it or not. It might give us as investors great opportunities, but at the same time, it could hurt them long term. So does this work out? We'll see, I don't know. That's just my concern.
I don't know if it's a good earth thing or a bad thing, but that's that. All right. That's it for me. It's the last. Live for March for me. I hope you have a great weekend. This weekend I am doing, my daughter is doing a color guard competition, and then another one is doing a play, a little mini play. So a ton of stuff to do.
Hope you have a great weekend. I'm Vito Scarnecchia with ABITANO... we'll see you out there.
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