Is the CRASH OVER?
Highlights:
- Is the CRASH OVER?
- Low inventory 748 sfr SCC = multiple offers, panic buying, difficult for alternative loans
- RATES DROPPED LIKE I SAID THEY WOULD
- What you get for $1MM Santa Clara County
Good morning. It's Thursday, April 6th. Holy moly. , first of all, happy Easter, happy Passover, et cetera. It's going to be a good weekend, a big long weekend. We're actually going to see the Sounds Eight Giants play on Saturday. At least that's the plan. And then I get to do more camera ops. This weekend. And it's, I'm excited about that.
So, I really do enjoy working behind the camera instead of being in front of the camera, because it's just another skill set that I'm learning. And, you know,, They always say you can't, an old dog can't learn new tricks, but that's not true. I'm always trying to do something better with myself, whether it's my mind, my emotions, my spirit, or spirituality or my technical or my real estate or what have you.
Is the CRASH OVER?
And that's, the thing is I'm always trying to improve. So I'm really excited that I get to be behind a. To this weekend. So yeah. Good. Okay. Is the crash over? I don't know. I think it is. Specifically, I think it is. I think our rates just went down to 6.18 or something like that today, and I'll show you that real quick.
Also, inventory is so low. No, not only here, but across the nation. It's just, it's unnaturally low and it's low for the last five years. And what I mean by that is VO sale volume has increased substantially. Over the last few decades. Now, I've only been doing this for 20 years, but I'm looking at the numbers and I'm, and what is while more population growth happens, n more homes get built, not as many homes as necessary, which puts upward pressure on pricing.
There's still a volume of homes trying to be. And whether you're an investor or a corporation or a first-time home buyer or a move-up buyer or a luxury buyer, there are just not enough houses out there right now.
For what people can afford. Now, if you're a corporation, you can afford whatever. If you're an investor, you can afford something that's inside your sector that you're looking for specifically. And some people are looking for million-dollar homes. Some people are looking for $10 million homes.
It really depends on what they're looking at. Some people are looking at commercials, and some people are looking at property. So there are investors of all kinds. But specifically speaking, the home market, the real estate market right now is dangerously low. Inventory is dangerously low, and the Feds just lowered the rates, which means demand's going to go up while inventory stays stable.
I guess that's something you can call it. And what we had over the. 6, 7, and 8 months demand was waning because affordability went sky high and so did interest rates. We were looking at seven and a quarter, seven and a half, obviously after points and everything that reduced down, but
demand went down. Supply went maintained. If it went up a little bit because the attrition slowed down, that forced prices down. Now that rates go down, demand goes. And inventory supply is not there. It's like what happened back in 2010 when that big earthquake happened in,, Malaysia and we had the hard drive fiasco or when that,, volcano happened, and I want to say it was hard drives again too, but there was like a supplies train and prices went.
A low inventory of 748 Single Family Homes in Santa Clara County means multiple offers, panic buying, the difficulty for alternative loans
It's the same way that Cartel does with the gas prices. They restrict oil production. So price, gas prices go up. Supply isn't there and let's take a look.
Over the last few weeks, we've seen the price, and the number of homes plateau, if not go down. Now, last summer we had 500 homes, 488, 440. What was this? I wanna say this is back during the summer, we were at 502, almost 700 units active for sale at any given time, just in San Jose. Now we're down to a third of that, or maybe a half of that, depending on how you wanna look at it.
The numbers are lower, and the inventory is lower now, again, What I realize is when you look@realtor.com, you're not going to get exactly the specific numbers or the specific stretch. So 2 54 is what San Jose or realtor.com shows San Jose, the actual number is 3 22. So it's not as bad as you think, but if we're looking at a baseline, this is my baseline, right?
So we're at 600 over the summer. I can tell you it was probably a little bit higher. Last March, April, and May, which is where we are right now, and inventory is slumping. I've been saying that we need to have inventory go up and I, we were expecting inventory to go up and it just has not. I was also saying that rates were going to come down and if you look, rates have calmed down.
RATES DROPPED LIKE I SAID THEY WOULD
We're at under 6%. Just like I said, it was going to happen. This is temporary because the feds are going to testify again or add another quarter percent, so it's going to go up again. And that's okay because we need it. We need we, need production. We need sales to slow down a little bit because what's going to happen is we'll get back into multiple offers, panic buying, and make it really difficult for the alternative loans, the VA Loan, FHA, the CalHFA, which we've spoken about, the USDA loans, the low down payment.
Or down payment assistance programs, it's going to make it really difficult for them to get back into it. And this is the time, and I've been, lots of people have been telling this telling, you, this doesn't matter if you listen to me, or other experts in real estate or in inventory, in economics, or in lending or in appraisal.
They're all telling you that if you're, if you have been struggling with a down payment or trying to get into a house, now, the last few months have been when it is. The rates coming down is bad news for those people. Okay. As I said, rates would drop just like I said. Let's get me out here so we can see a bigger picture there.
What you get for $1MM Santa Clara County
All right. What do you get for a million dollars in Santa Clara County? This is a million-dollar home right here, guys, and it's on the east side of San Jose. I'm saying the east side is bad. It's just when you're looking at the Bay Area, the South Bay everything on this side tends to sell fur a little bit more than this side.
So the same house here in Burbank or Willow Glen or Campbell will be 2000001.8 to 2 million. All right, so this is on the east side of San Jose and it's a nice standard home. Let's take a look at the numbers. Three bedroom, two bath, almost 1200 square feet, built-in 19 59, 64 years old.
Okay, gated community. This one's sold. , tile floor. Looks like they scrubbed the popcorn off
the updated kitchen, which is nice. Yeah. Nice hood. Stainless steel. Looks like they did nice cabinets there. That's a little tight there. I'm not sure how that works. Or at least the picture makes that look tight. What do I know? Oh, maybe it was just a story. I don't know. Hopefully, they can move,, that island around a little bit.
Let's go back to it. That's two and a half feet. Let's go back to it again. They didn't pop scrub the popcorn. Oh, okay. Let's see. Yeah, that's two, two feet. You can't sit there. It looks like it's in place too. All right. Looks like, they still have popcorn in the bedrooms. Laminate floor.
There you go. Wow. Wow, somebody's a collector. All right. When you're selling your house, you want to decrease clutter. What I have a rule of thumb if you've heard this, if you've heard me tell you this before, what's my rule of thumb on any surface when you're selling your home? Put it down in the comments.
That looks like an A D U or a garage. A converted garage maybe. Yeah. That's cool. Like the little cove party cove. Yeah, that's a converted garage, guys. Nice backyard low, maintenance yard, which is cool. I get that. Okay. There you go. That's what you get for a million dollars in Santa Clara.
, let's go back to here.
I want one number real quick. I'm looking for that. Out of the 144 homes, 142 homes sold in Santa Clara this week, the last seven days, please forgive my dog. She's snoring a bit. 132. I could have just looked at that number. So Al Butt 10 sold over a million dollars,
the most expensive home sold for 8.45 and you might be like in Vito in Pennsylvania or New Jersey. This would go for a million dollars, maybe 1,000,500. It. Yeah, beautiful homes. Okay. Enough of that I need to get out and start doing walkarounds.
The other story that I told you is inventory is down across the nation, and it's true. Every city I'm tracking is lower except for four, and there is not even that much. Like that one's 40, that one. Actually less that needs to be read.
So all but three, Cape Coral, Austin, Cape Coral mostly that high, mostly because of Hurricane Ian and people that had hurricane damage. Our selling in their houses because insurance is probably screwing 'em over. And they're done with getting hit by hurricanes. So that's probably unnaturally high for that area.
But last year we were at 22, or 23, so maybe people are just getting out. Same thing with Austin. Yep, there you go. Inventory's low. Prices are, or rates are down, which means demand is up. So my guess is in the next couple weeks, you're going to see prices increase, the median sales price will increase the, well, we're already seeing houses sell pretty quick and for more, especially here in San Jose, Santa Clara County.
Yep. And I think I want to say yesterday I was looking at that, and I think the numbers say that how many go? Oh, the 50. So it's almost 60% of the houses sold in San Jose, sold over the list price. So there you go. I think the crash is over here, at least here in San Jose or Santa Clara County, Silicon Valley, South Bay, and maybe even the Bay Area.
You look here and other people say the case Scher report says San Francisco is down 4%. I think we already saw that attrition and I think we've already accepted the fact that we've seen quite a, lowering in prices. I don't think we're going to get back to April 22, but I think I, lemme show you quick there.
There. See San Francisco's down four. Seattle's down, four Portland's down one San Diego's down two Los Angeles. See. I don't think that's even correct there, but. , I think this is year over year. So from April 22 or March 22, which is when last year I was telling people we're at the pinnacle of the market.
We're at the peak of the market. I think things are slowing down. We knew things were slowing down. We saw rates going up. We saw multiple offers. Or the number of offers comes down and the crazy offers like $400,000 over a list price. Those started going away. So we told people that was happening and some sellers were like, yeah, you know what you're talking about.
Even though I've only been in the business for 20 years, the market slowed down the market contract. And we saw, like even in Blossom Valley, I tell people it, it depends on the house, but on average we saw about a 200, $250,000 drop in value, and that's about right. We're on the right side of 1787, the corridor there we're on the east side.
If we go back to that map, where. That price, our prices are going to go down a little bit. Prices in Campbell went down a little bit in Willow Glen. They went down a little bit, not as much because they're on that side of 85 or 87, so know that we're in a good position right now, but it's going to get more difficult for buyers.
And buyers. If you've, if you have those alternative loans that you're struggling with right now,, I feel like it might be too late for you. Just so don't get frustrated. Just keep writing offers. All right. That's it. I'm Vito Sia with the abba. We'll see you out there. Have a great weekend. Happy Easter & Passover.
Vito Scarnecchia
Realtor®, Broker, Veteran, Dad
DRE#: 01407676
Website: abitano.com
update your home value: https://hmbt.co/bT7qRJ
FREE DESKTOP APPRAISAL https://www.propertyrate.com/agent/vitoscarnecchia
If you are moving ANYWHERE in the world - Let me know! I know a LOT of AMAZING Agents!
Book appointments here: https://calendly.com/abitano/15min
IG https://www.instagram.com/abitanogroup/
FB https://www.facebook.com/vito.scarnecchia/
LI https://www.linkedin.com/in/vito-scarnecchia/
Blog http://blog.abitano.com/
POD https://spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/oxdH1Hwfcvb
Professional Photography by Kim E https://photosbykime.com /
Compass site: https://www.compass.com/agents/vito-scarnecchia/
VydeoEase.com- video post-production service for business marketers. VITO50 for discount
Video Marketing Course for Realtors https://karincarr.samcart.com/referral/O0FGKRS3/0orWK4vK5bAYBD6E
Try Melon video streaming https://melonapp.com?ref=vitoscarnecchia
Comments
Post a Comment