Home Price Growth will Ease in 2025 and 2026 | Home Supply going up!

 



Home Price Growth will Ease in 2025 and 2026

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Introduction and Market Overview
Morning. Morning. Hey, an experts' poll found that home price growth may ease in 2025 and 2026. Let's take a quick look. We need to understand why this is happening. Even if rates go down, we're still looking at buyer apprehension right now. 

Media Influence and Market Sentiment

It's one of those things that the media is pushing the market or the economy to collapse, and I don't know if you see it, but I don't.

The media is saying we're in for a recession now. We're making it less affordable for people to buy houses right now because we're at an all-time high. As far as prices are concerned, as far as the rate is concerned and income compression is happening. I know a lot of people who are getting laid off.

I know a people, a lot of people who are deciding to hold off on any major purchases, and that means the economy could shake,

which also means that home purchases. We'll be on the back burner of everyone's mind for a long time until things shake out. Because people on the whole buy houses when the market's hot and when the market's cold, people don't. Smart people buy. When the market's down, when the market is collapsing, that's when you buy.

Kinda like stocks, anything, right? 



Current Home Price Trends
So right here, really quick article, it's not very elaborate. The latest forecasts are slight downward revisions from Fannie Mae's previous quarterly poll. Which panel predicted? 3.8 home growth, 3.8% home growth, home price growth in 2025 and 3.6% and 2026. Why not 5.8 like we have been seeing?

This is across the nation, guys, right? We're seeing 8% growth here in Santa Clara County. We talked about this last couple of ays ago. We're seeing major growth still here in the Valley. 




Local Market Insights: Santa Clara and Silicon Valley
As a matter of fact, in Blossom Valley, where I live, there's hardly any inventory at all, and we're not experiencing the same thing that the rest of the country is experiencing, right?

So on the whole, this could help home buyers; this could hurt home sellers in the coming months. When it comes to this valley, to the Silicon Valley, to the Bay Area, right? It could slow things down. As a matter of fact, we're we were seeing 12 days on market at the beginning of the year, now we're seeing 17.

That's 'cause there's more inventory and we're gonna go to get into that. So, more inventory means slower growth. The economists here are reacting to the date,a and the data is telling them well. The supply is increasing. Rates aren't coming down. Home purchases are pretty much on the same standard, so maybe we're only gonna see a little bit of growth.

So they're being very conservative about this in certain areas, right? Like here in Sunnyvale Home, really close to Apple, the big space center right here, right? It's walking distance to Apple. It's still almost $3 million. 





Property Listings and Analysis

Not my listing, Kenard's way. Four bedroom, four bath, 2300 square feet. Built in 1956. So this is a total rebuild, but it's huge.

And it's, I don't care for the paint, I don't care for the box brownie effect,' 'cause we don't get purple skies here, guys. We don't get, we don't get that. This is all box brownies. This is all AI stuff, right? Right here, it could even be staged AI. 'Cause I don't, I see shadows, but I don't know. Maybe we'll see.

It looks nice, very nicely updated. I like the fixtures. I like the floor, even though it's laminate. I like the walk-in bath, the shower there. This is a nice-looking house, and if you live near Apple and you're an engineer, you can afford it. S,o gimme a call and we'll go take a look at it if you can't afford it.

We have bank-owned property. It's the only one in Santa Clara County right now. Actually, there's a couple, but this one I wanted to point out, harming the court. Not my listing. $800,000 townhouse. I think it's a four-bedroom, two-and-a-half bath, 1400 square feet townhouse built in 1972, and it's right on the freeway there.

It's HUD-owned for $400 a month. HOA dues and it's been on the market 88 days, so it's a steal. You could probably even get it for $700,000. We can go and write an offer for six 50 Insult. The HUD guys, these guys aren't homeowners, they're business people, and their job is to sell houses, and they get A commission or a vig on everything they sell.

So if you're looking at buying a condo, an investment, this sells four bedrooms, this thing will sell for a lot of money or rent for a lot of money, even though it's close to the freeway. I wonder if this has a pool, has a pond? No. I don't know what that is. So this whole. Thing, $400 a month, and you don't even get a pool.

It's insulting, but again, if you're buying this as an investment, there you go. 




Market Inventory and Buyer-Seller Dynamics
40 days on market report. We have 140 homes that have not sold. I. That number is growing a little bit at a time. That's something to keep an eye on, right? If we look at December, it was 114. November was 180. Even in October, it is 200.
So it's nothing alarming, just yet to think about, especially because we're in the selling season, right? Same thing with no 90 days on market, homes ticking up just a little bit, but nothing to be alarmed about because we were at the same numbers, 66 in October. These numbers are very small.
Nothing to be concerned about, Aria and the Bay Area, including that one we just saw. We have 67, we have nothing. We have zero inventory. Basically, we have 208 homes listed for sale as distressed properties in all of California. That my MLS tracks supplies are going up a bit. A tad bit. We're not where we need to be. We need to be at about a thousand for San Jose and about 2000 for Santa Clara County. And again, we're about 60% of the way there, but we're not where we need to be to make it a balanced market. A balanced market is where we make it fair and equitable for both the buyer and seller, which means that we still have, we don't have enough inventory for the demand that we have.

And because rates are. So high right now, and they have been for the last couple of years. 7% doesn't make for a great buyer's market. Just doesn't. It makes it less affordable for everybody across the nations. Even in Silicon Valley, where if you're making $500,000 a year, you should be able to afford a house.

But at 7% it's off-putting for a lot of people. So we have fewer people. We still have demand, we still have houses going into contract every 17 days. Look, is it right here? 17 days. So average. We have houses selling zero per zero days on market, three days on market, and two days on market. It's not like it's a normal thing for Napa to see it on the market for 80 days.

So our inventory is growing, but is it growing in a spike? We have had more in; we have more inventory today than we have had in the last year in both Santa Clara County and in San Jose. It's good. We need more supplies. We need to make it a balanced market. We need to make it a balanced market for buyers to come into the market.

The next thing that's going to happen is rates will go up, and supply will dwindle a little bit, and then it'll come back up. It's just normal. This is the heart, this is the heat of the selling season right now: March, April, May. We're at the midpoint, and it's normal for us to see this uptick, and I'm glad to see that we're above where we were last year.

Here you go. All right. 

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

That's it for now. Thanks for watching. I'm Vito with Abano. We'll see you out there. 

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Vito Scarnecchia

Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad

DRE#: 01407676

408-705-6817

Vito@abitano.com

Update your home value: https://hmbt.co/bT7qRJ      

FREE DESKTOP APPRAISAL https://www.propertyrate.com/agent/vitoscarnecchiaIf you are moving ANYWHERE in the world - Let me know! I know a LOT of AMAZING Agents!





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