Mortgage Relief SCAM?
Welcome back. Merry Christmas.
Hopefully, you're all done with all your shopping. I am. And if you're watching this and you've seen any of my Facebook posts about helping other businesses, my son has a business and he sells these little tchotchke things. And, um, yeah, we're, I ordered a bunch of stuff for the whole family and half of it's here
So I have three days left to get anything left for, you know, Christmas. Hopefully, it all comes in. So anyway, Merry Christmas. I may or may not do anything next mo week, just to give you a heads up, just to give you a little bit of reprieve. Might just throw out the numbers just so you can have 'em. But there's some stuff that we need to go through.
Rates went down to 6.1 over the week, just actually blip down to almost 6%, which, you know, if you look past these numbers, we haven't seen six in, uh, since before August. Mm, like June timeframe, so things are kind of coming around. It's nice. We do have some, uh, other news.
6.38 again, now, these are not quoted. , they're not for you to say, this is what my realtor said. These are dependent on your credit, your reserves, your job history, and a whole bunch of different things. Your lender, right? You don't want to go with a discount guy because once he gets you into a contract, you might not see 'em ever again until we need to.
But look, penned California Bank, uh, Fremont has some good deals. Go local. Don't go to like the national Lenders- because when you're trying to buy a house, you want it to go as smoothly as possible. And the larger guys, well, even though they're pricing themselves out right now, they don't care to work with us under contract.
And that includes some of the big three banks too. So just as a little, you know, update. Gas again is $3.30 and 74 cents. That's about the lowest. I think that's what we're gonna see for the next couple of weeks. So especially with, you know, people visiting during the holidays, you might see prices go up a little bit.
Mortgage Relief SCAM?
This is, this was the whole reason why I had my thumbnail. I don't know if you saw my thumbnail, but this is it right here, right? Mortgage relief scam, So did you know, and I hope you don't do this as a scam or try to scam people over the banks over, but did you know that if you have a con uh, a mortgage in California, you can go to this company ca mortgage relief.org and they will help you?
Not have to pay your mortgage. Now, I'm not saying you should do this. I'm not saying you should do this because what it does hurts you because you will have to pay it back eventually. But there's a program in here where they don't, they'll give you upwards of 70 or $80,000 and towards your mortgage relief, and they'll also give you up to $10,000, I believe, towards, uh, towards property tax.
This is all through California. It's a program. I'm sure you have to pay these guys to do something. I don't think it's a scam. I don't know if it's a scam or not. I'm kind of hesitant to say that this is a good thing. Um, but you know, it's, they say it's a.org, but you don't know who these guys are, right?
They might charge you upfront and then they disappear. But I do know what happens if this happens. The small lenders kind of get screwed. I know You're like, well, I don't care. They made a lot of money. Well, they made a lot of money last year. This year they've come in, you know, back down to normal and now everybody's making a decent payment or living wage.
And what happens when this goes through goes to effect is they get something called a callback or a callback. They actually, the commission that's doled out to the. and to the salesperson, to the loan broker, they pull that money back and it screws up a lot of things. So hopefully you don't hurt people with this, and hopefully, if it's something you need, I want you to be aware of it.
And if you've used it, please let me know what you think of it. But also, please don't abuse it because we know that a lot of companies and small businesses and people have, you know, Done some fraudulent stuff. So all you have to do here is say I have covid, and that pretty much starts the ball rolling.
Okay, I think we went through this last week.
COVID HOTSPOT SLOWDOWNS
Biggest home slowdowns, guess what? San Jose is right at the top. But I'm gonna tell you straight up. It's not that big, of a difference. I can tell you this is a change in price per square foot. Right? But I can show you, it has retreated, it has contracted a little bit. And we're gonna talk about that in a little bit.
You're gonna have to watch the whole show cause I'm gonna go towards the end to show you this. But here's the thing. We're seeing a small contraction. We're seeing a contraction everywhere, pretty much except for certain areas. Um, we're seeing inventory shrink down. We're seeing the volume of sales per day, per week, per month, and per quarter slow down.
And that was to be expected because we're raising rates, making it more difficult and less affordable for people to be able to buy home. , right? So all these big areas that people moved to, they bailed. So, San Jose Silicon Valley had a huge impact on suburban areas, and suburban neighborhoods. You saw a massive spike.
What was happening in metropolitan areas like San Francisco, Oakland, and downtown San Jose, was people left because of the high cost of living there, price per square. or, if you're renting and they move to suburban areas so that they can enjoy a larger space because they could do remote work while now people are coming back, da la.
But that's why we saw such a huge boom of, of, uh, sales prices because the more pressure, the more competition, the lower the cost of money, the higher the prices. The only people that want out were sellers and agents. Right. I get that. So, lemme check something real quick. Good. Okay. Las Vegas. I'm trying, I, I'm tracking Las Vegas, I'm not tracking these areas.
Um, just because I just don't. because I, I, it's not a place, these are none of the places I would ever think about moving to. My sister lives there. I have some friends here. I have friends and realtors up in this area too, all over the area. So if you have questions about living or moving to those areas, great.
And by the way, I keep this for, I don't know, two, three weeks, four weeks sometimes. And these are, these are my weekly, numbers that we chat through, right? When we go through that, if you ever want to call me on it, say, Hey, Vito, can you send those to me? Happy to do it, because I'm not telling you, you know, and all I'm showing you is the, are the numbers that I'm pulling from here, right?
Cape Coral, we're gonna go into this in a minute, but again, I told you last week, to look at this beautiful home, right? Well, this one got hit by the h., and lo and behold, take a look. Take a look. There it is. That's what it looks like now. Yep. And if you look at where it is, it was probably along the path I would say, let me see if I can zoom it out so that it's in Fort Myers proper.
Cape Coral's right here. The track of the hurricane kind of went this. , especially through Fort Myers Island. This is the bridge that got destroyed. It's the Sandal Island Bridge and then Fort Myers. There is a pier here somewhere right here, and that's gone now too. So we spent a lot of time here getting sun tan sunburn, playing with the sting rays.
It's an awesome place, to hang out. I stayed, see where the little hand is? Right there? The little fingers. This southernmost point right here, this is where we stayed. One of these houses right here. Awesome place. So I spent a week there. Um, the house that's for sale is right along this river.
It's right on the riverfront. Brand new this house or fixed up this house would be worth probably a million dollars. All right, and I talked about that. Let's talk about this. All right. We've been going through this a little bit and I've been throwing out hints of this for the last couple, uh, weeks.
We've seen the volume of sales, and the volume of overbidding is going away. If you look at the numbers here, just here, you see that the number of, uh, homes over a hundred percent have gone down quite considerably. We used to see 65, 70% of homes selling for over list price. Now it's exact.
By The Numbers
Right. And if you look at the six-month run, although I'm only, I've only been watching this for the last, you know, however long, uh, it's about 30%. It's probably gonna continue to go down over the next year. Are we headed for a? A downdraft probably. It's a very good possibility that we're gonna see some, some drop in, in home values.
Um, mostly because we're expecting more people to become unemployed, and inflation, to continue to go up. Even though they say that it's not happening anymore, it's still bound to happen. The stock market could crash. But we'll see what happens over Christmas and the next month after they report it. So again, here are the numbers of percentages that we've seen in reduction.
So if you look at this right here, I started doing this, the average number or the average price that San Jose has contracted single-family homes in San Jose proper. Three bedrooms plus not a two bedroom, two, one, um, under 2 million, right? A very average home price of 1.5 million is only contracted on the average $50,000 on the average, right?
Last week we saw $261,000 for that week's average as a., right? That's probably when the market started going like this rates went up higher, right? So, and then when I started tracking it, the rule delta is like 29, 26 hundred, negative 10,000. So there's, we're kind of just like in this mode right here, right?
The kind we're not seeing a dip. Okay. I don't want that one. I don't want that. I want that. I know I keep going back and opening this backup. I do want to show you this median home sales price has gone down again five months in a row right now. I'll show this to you in a second. Just to show you, we topped out his record price.
The median sales price across the United States was four 16 back in July for June of 2022. That was a record high. You'll see the graph in a second went to 4 0 3 3 89. 3 84. 3 79, so every month it goes down like 5,000. It is about, it's on par, right? We're at 3 79. We're at three 70. Three 70 was just reported today.
I'll show you the graph so you can take a look. June was the high spot again. It was reported in July, so there you go. All right, now the fun stuff. Homes on market in San Jose. Is this San Jose? No, I think it's. Alameda County, Monterey County, San Mateo County, Santa Clara County, and Santa Cruz. Again, 2 million or less.
Three plus bedrooms. 40 plus, right? 373 homes on market over 40 days. Same thing with 90 days, 176. These numbers have been crawling up. When I first started reporting it was 1 71. Now it's 3 73.
Okay, and look at this number right here. Last year we had like 700, 800 homes for sale. Sometimes it was over a thousand. And the height, we were at 6 88, and that was August. Right now we only have 269 homes for sale in San Jose, right? It's not a lot. Again, it's not the same number. These are just realtor numbers.
Um, realtor.com. I'm pulling from there so that we all have the same average, right? Um, closes. Last week we had 61 actual closed escrows versus 108 we're down 56. over the year, and that is the wrong format. Hang on a second. That's 52% lower if almost 53% lower than what it was on average. This is the this is a six-month running average, right?
So the average sales price is 1.4 8, 8 4 1 4, 1 0.485. Last year's average was 1.69 for this week, right? Again, 1.5. 1.55 from last year was the average running, and then the median price was 1.4, one four or 1.4. The list of sales price ratio is still above, on average, on par, uh, for the running average is over a hundred percent, but the last few weeks we've been below 99%.
Yeah, crazy right? Does that mean you can go in and say, I'm gonna give you 99%? Well, they probably would. There are some strategies that we use, to negotiate. Uh, I've gotten into contact with a couple of different transactions for houses. Once we actually went higher than we expected, just kind of happened.
Right. So just part, part, and parcel. Right. 17 o of the. Is that right? 17 of the homes closed? Yeah. 17 of the 61 homes that closed were over 100% list price. Sulfur over ask list price. Right? And you can see that number right here. I think this is last year's, right? So that's how I show you that number. But I can show you right here.
These aren't in order of the actual, uh, ratio, but you can see some are going 30% over. Still crazy. Those homes that are going for 30 or 35% over, I'll tell you right now, they're not in horrible condition or maybe they're priced accordingly just to attract the right. If you have it listed over the list price, you may or may not be able to, uh, get what you want.
It might just sit on the market for 3, 4, 5 weeks, or months. Days on market are now 23 on average was still about 23, and last year days on market were 14, or on average it was 13. Pendings, we had 21. We only had 21 homes going to contract last week. Compared to, you know, hundreds when we started seeing the market crash or plateau out list price decreases.
This is cumulative. This isn't last week. This is all the houses that we're measuring that have seen a list price de decrease. So it's going up and down, up and down. There you go. TFTs, are back on market. These are homes that were in contract and for whatever reason, the buyer backed out. I could get a better rate.
Hey, Mr. Seller, I want this. No, I'm not gonna give it to you. The buyer says, well screw you. I'm out. Right? Or they got laid off or, Whatever kind of nightmare stuff that could happen. And that's the kind of stuff that does happen. It does. There's nothing we can do, but we can help you manage and navigate through that.
And we had 28 cancellations last week, so that's pretty crazy, right? That's a little bit more than, uh, what is it, 20%, 22, 20 1% of the homes that were active last. Right here we're canceled. The rest, 21 of 'em went into contract. The stark difference right there. All right. I'm not gonna go through these numbers because I have other things I want to do.
If you do want to talk about this or you want to longer gander at this, text me, or DM me. I'll send this to you. You can have fun with it. You can do whatever you want with it. . What I do want to show and just as a general cursor, is out of all the ho cities, metropolitans and otherwise, that I measure, that I, that I watch every month or every week, only one is increasing in.
Inventory. The rest are decreasing in inventory. It's the winter, the holidays because people typically don't go buy houses during the holidays. Serious sellers and serious buyers are out there. Right. I'm working with a couple of serious buyers right now, and we'll be serious sellers soon as we, you know, get into contact.
So there you go. I showed this to you earlier because houses like this got damaged um, from the hurricane. And it's not just homes that were on Midway Island. That's kind of a cool place to do it. Call, um, It is not just homes that are near water. A lot of different homes. A lot of the homes here on a sterile island, Fort Myers Beach got were destroyed.
A lot of them here on the waterfront was destroyed, but there were a lot of houses throughout that were destroyed.
If you're thinking about moving to San Jose or one of our amazing little smaller towns like Morgan Hill, Los Gatos, uh, let me know. I have an amazing little relocation guide that's available for you. And if you're in the market and you're just thinking about it, just gimme a call and we'll talk, talk through different.
All right, so again, Merry Christmas. Uh, I have other things going on, but I wanted to give you this information so you can digest it and understand where we are par for the course. We're kind of on mark, on on, on level, and we're kind of at a peak market. I don't think we're gonna see a major crash until we see numbers for the end of the year, which could be the end of January.
Crash or no crash?
Could be. So, March, April, and May are typically when we sell more, it's our selling season. Uh, during Covid, that was a big thing. Uh, that wasn't a big thing cuz we never really saw a season. It kept on burning and burning and other things are slowing down. We're expecting March, April, and May timeframe to be the selling season.
I'm Vito Scarnecchia with Compass. Or with the Abitano Group, powered by Compass. We'll see you out there. Merry Christmas.