Housing is in Superman's Inverse world | Three things you need to know


we're back on track. The Slump is gone.
Housing is in Superman's Inverse world
Will housing crash? https://catalyst.independent.org/2018/12/18/alleviating-californias-housing-crisis/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwiIOmBhDjARIsAP6YhSVcjqwkpR9Hy2wTh_sQQ52I0UkTXNxfYE0jFpcSEvNgjyNIPPQudukaAmFUEALw_wcB
Financial Intelligencehttps://bit.ly/
NAR.Realtor Stats. https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

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Housing is in Superman's Inverse world

 We are living in Superman's inverse world. It's I feel like, we're back to normal. Everything in the news, everything you hear and read is the world is an Armageddon and possibly it is, who knows, right? What do I know? But what I'm seeing here just, in San Jose, not the other cities or counties or just today, what we're seeing is we're back to normal.

We're reaching past last year's normal or reduction. Last year, we started seeing the reduction or the contraction, and now we're seeing it come. We're popping back out. The median price across the United States is back. The housing shortage is still an affliction. Housing affordability is still out there. And it's not just San Jose or California.

It's the entire United States, and I dare say the entire world. Our population, I think, what we're seeing here, and it's not the homeless. That's a totally different thing. It's affordability, right? It's a small portion of the... The homeless people that are out there can't afford housing. I understand that there's another portion of that, the them that are focused on being on drugs or 51 50 or whatever affliction.

There are people out there that are homeless that want to work and want to make a decent living. It's just really difficult. I see it every day. I understand the possible, problems. So let's talk about the three things we need to, or you need to know today. On that, we already talked about Superman's inverted thing We're back on track and I'll show you the numbers in a minute.

So stay tuned

it's nearly impossible to Buy a house unless today you buy it Overpriced. Now, roughly speaking, I want to say 40, 61, 69. Oh yeah, 69. 70% of the houses last week went or that closed went for over list price. And we're seeing this as a trend all the way through let's just call it 80%. Let's just call it 65%, right?

To be conservative. But these numbers right here, these numbers, sorry, right here that I'm showing you. Let me break this up so you can see it even bigger. The numbers that I'm highlighting on row 32,
pretty consistently over the last couple of months have been around 70, 68, 70%, right? Those are houses that closed that got offers over the list price. Now what do you mean by over-list price? It could be 17%. Let's see where this lands. Yeah, 17% like this one. We had one yesterday. It was 42. 7% or something like that all the way to 0.
004% over the list price. And I called that at 28, right? So those numbers make sense. The average price is 14 days on the market. The average price last week was 16, 16. 14. We're seeing these are from last year. We're already past the contraction point. We're headed back into the market.

Sorry, let me get back in here so you can see me. Now you don't need to see me. So we're completely inverted. We're back and it's not because the market is back. I think this is still artificial compared to the fact that we don't have enough houses on sale. It's just because supply is down. Right?

DON'T REFINANCE YOUR HOUSE⁠Everybody says that we're in a slump. We're not in a slump. Houses are still selling at a fast clip per group of units. Let's just call it percentage-wise or per 100 houses that are sold. They're all selling really fast. We just don't have enough supply. Now, these are the units sold all the way up to June of last year.

And you'll see that the markers are down, but that's only because the supply is down. That's the problem. People that have bought a house. At 2%, even though it's not their favorite house, they're going to keep it forever or they, you can't afford it because if it's 2% if you're paying 2%, then you're paying 2%.

If you're paying 3%, you're paying 3% right now, you would be foolish to refinance, right? That's what I'm saying. Don't refinance your house. I know my lender guys that are watching this right now are going to help yell at me all day long about this, but here's the truth. You should never. Okay. It's the truth according to the veto, right?

Don't, there are a couple of different schools of thoughts on this. And I keep on reiterating this. You shouldn't refinance your house because let's say you're in your house for seven years. You've already paid the majority of, the interest. And then you have to pay the lender to refinance the house and call that 3%, 2%, whatever, right?
If it's a million-dollar loan, that's $20,000 that you're gonna have to pay. The R O I on that plus the savings, it just doesn't math out right yet? Mostly because we're at 7% versus 2%. But let's just say we went back to normal. It was at four points a half or 5%, even five. Five and a half percent going down from five points a half to four points a half percent.
Make sense when you've only had the loan, maybe a year or two, but once you're at the five-year mark, it just doesn't make sense to refinance unless you absolutely have to, you're broke, you need the money, whatever reasons, right? There are reasons for you to do it. They're less than conservative. So there are reasons for you to refinance your house.
I'm not saying that there are also reasons for you to take out a home equity line and hold it there just in case. Let's just say that knock on wood, God forbid. I break my leg and I can't work. I have a home equity line. On top of my savings, on top of my 401k, on top of all these other buckets that I have as a safety net just in case I need the money to pull out to live, right?

Because if I can't live, I mean if I'm not making money then I have to that's, what it is. Not over-leveraged. Will the housing market crash?

I tell you what it possibly could be in different areas. Let's just say like St. Louis. I'm not picking on St. Louis. Or let's say Indianapolis or Jacksonville or Springfield, which every state has a Springfield depends on the economy, depends on what's going on there, depends on how many people are moving in, how many people are moving out, depends on the economy, depends on the industries that are serving that or that are being served by that city really depends on a lot.

I think what we're going to see is it's not going to be a national thing. It'll be micro, not micro, it'll be smaller towns being afflicted faster and more normally because there's just not enough, but we also have the downward pressure of big corporations buying houses. If you look at certain cities, BlackRock, and all these other big corporations, they're buying 20-30 % of the inventory, which also leads to higher prices.

Is that good and healthy? I don't think it is. My thing is if you're going to have a government regulate something, you have to regulate it. So it's in favor of the people, not for corporations. I get it. Your corporation, you must show profits to your stakeholders and stockholders. I understand that.

But at the end of the day the market probably won't crash even if we go into an economic downturn because corporations, investment hedge funds, BlackRock Vanguard, all these, and, Like Bezos is buying up and Bezos and Gates and all these other big billionaires, they're buying up billions of dollars worth of, housing inventory, making it more difficult for us to be homeowners.
So I don't think it's a thing where the market will prop up artificially for a long time until we push these. These, big money the big money, let's just call it out of the industry. We are, we forbid them to do it, or you have to have maybe a buyer by the house first, but give them first priority.

I don't know what the answer is. Cause there are so many different sneaky ways to do that doing, right? You can get a straw buyer. If I was black rock, I'd hire a bunch of straw buyers and say, Hey, go buy these houses. And we'll give you a little nudge every time you buy something. Then you sell it to us we'll give you a little bit of profit.

So it's unfair for a lot of these big corporations to do that. And it's not going to stop. It's not going to stop unless we do something about it. All right. Financial intelligence. I'm slated to see, or talk to somebody tomorrow. About financial intelligence. We already had our first one. The thing is about really helping people understand the economics of owning a house or saving for the future or providing buying, buying retirement, things you should do, shouldn't do.

How much insurance should you buy home insurance? or health insurance, all that kind of stuff. So we're getting into that. Okay. Let's talk about the numbers. Oh, wait, first real estate. Look at that. I tell you people do some really crazy stuff. If you think about this,

here we go. There we go. Look at that. I see this all the time, guys. I see this all the time. It's ridiculous. Anywho, let's get back to The numbers, by the way, if you do want to see the numbers, I have these available. I can grab them for you anytime. I'm not saving them anymore. I can just go back and dig them out and they're not going to be a hundred percent the same, but there'll be close, right?

So medium price is creeping back up. Remember a peak out in June was four. I want to say it was four 20 at one time, but then they corrected it down to four 16. And now I can tell you specifically that they dropped that down like four 13, I believe at our peak.

Yeah, 4. 13, which was June. Now we're coming back up and we're back to 4. 10. Hallelujah. Wow. I got to change that. 4. 10. Look at that.

The national home price index is 3. 01. Days to sell over time count Santa Clara County, 17 compared to our 14 on average. It's 21, right? So it's coming down that these are monthly nuggets. So that was for June our absorption rate for Santa Clara County is 0. 9 Across the entire united states in three months.

It's telling you inventory is down right housing inventory active This should be about a million. Let's see if I can show you this number. See this should be normal if we went back out. I always mess this up

Okay, so we'll get out of that. I'll shut I'll set that up next week Right now we only have what is it? 700. No. Yeah. 700-something houses for sale active

Santa Clara County. We have yeah, 791. It needs to be twice that we're at 60% of where we're supposed to be. We do have houses that are sitting on market overpriced condition for the market, et cetera. We can look at that one day. If you want, you can give me a call. We can go through it. I'm happy to do a video with you on it.

90 days is going up just a tad bit. REOs, bank-owned properties in the Bay Area, 10 County Bay Area is 28. It's nothing. REOs are not even a blip right now. We used to have over a million in the United States. Now we're down to maybe a hundred thousand. It's not a, it's 10% of what it was back in 2008.

Okay, so these are active, actual MLS feeds active for San Jose single-family homes. This is realtor. com. This is the actual MLS feed, San Jose proper, just to give you numbers. These numbers right here are based on. This is right here on the realtor. com so take that with a grain of salt closes last week We had 72 closes last year.
This is where I'm telling we're we're inverse right last year We had 69 but it gets crazier average sales price last week was 1. 7 last year It was 1. 5. Remember I told you the market contracted the argument Is the market contracted and a lot of sellers denied that so what happens we had a lot of more houses going on the market or staying on market a lot longer right this number's dropped considerably because the market is sucked back up not every house is going to sell mostly because hubris ego of the seller decides hey my house is worth 10% more than what the market's willing to demand and they're not willing to sell lower than that then we were wasting everybody's time, right?

Because you as a buyer know what the value of a house is worth and if a house is sitting on the market for 90-plus Days, there's something wrong with it. Whether it's

whether it's Condition price or market condition, right? It's totally different. So there you go. Okay, Last year's list price-to-sales price ratio was 100. Today, it's 106 this last week on average, we're 101. Now the average for last year was 112 because we're looking backward. Remember, we're still in the firestorm all the way until April.

So keep that in mind. These numbers will go inverse, but day to day, we're seeing these numbers. Are inverted now three months ago. These numbers were different. They were flipped now We're back to an increase in the market last year's days on the market were 19 days on the market today or this week is 14 Again, those numbers will invert.

All right There you go. Cool. All right. That's it. I'm Vito. That's it for now. Tomorrow. We're going to talk about the U S inventory watch and the inventory is low here in San Jose. It's low everywhere. We'll talk more about that. And what else are we going to talk about? I don't know.

There's going to be some kind of crazy news coming up. I'm sure. We'll talk about that. I'm Vito with Avatano. We'll see you out there.

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