Is the Housing Market AFFECTED During Election Years?
The Housing Market During Election Years
Introduction: Housing Market and Election Year
Is the housing market affected by an election year? Let's talk about that as well as when will the market crash. Fourth of July events coming to you this week. Willa Glenn House of the Week, Monday Bay Area Luxury Home of the Week, and the 12 Bay Area Market Report.
Let's get moving here.
Impact of Elections on Housing Market
What's going on with the housing market during an election year? Is it affected? Sometimes. This chart right here shows you the increase in value or the appreciation of general property across the United States over the last Decade 2013 was an amazing year. 2020 was an amazing year. 2021 was an even better year.
2005 was an awesome year, but 2007 to 2011, 2012, that's so great, right? We had elections during those years. The point it really depends on supply and demand.
Technical difficulties. Okay. It doesn't really matter. If you look at these numbers, it doesn't matter. What I've experienced is this. There's a little bit of an ebb and a little bit of a flow as we come into the election. Some people say I'm not going to vote for that candidate. Some people say I'm going to wait to see what happens after the election.
That's fear. That's fear of the individual, just like if you're going to buy a business, or if you're going to buy a house, or if you're going to buy a car, there's a certain amount of fear that goes into what if this is the wrong choice?
Market Crash: What to Expect
When Will the Housing Market Crash?
What happens if the market crashes? And what I have to tell you is if the market crashes, there will be more buyers in the market, which means more competition.
If the market slows down and during the summer, the market slows down, period. It's a good time to buy. There's less competition. You don't want to buy when you're seeing the market increase. 13, 14, 10 percent because you're competing against 5 to 15, maybe 25 other buyers. What happens then?
That means you're putting two, three, 400, 000 over the list price. It's great for the seller, not for the buyer. So when the market slows down, It's a good time to buy what happens if I buy today and the market crashes tomorrow, hold onto it. You're committing to that payment anyway.
Buying a House: Timing and Strategy
it sucks right now to buy a house. I totally understand it. It's not as great as when it is super competitive and, lenders are telling people, Oh, the market, the rates are going to come down. The rates are going to come down not for a long time. And even if they do come down, it's not going to be 2 percent or 3 percent or 4%.
So if you're going to buy a house, I would suggest you buy it now because next year, the market's going to suck even worse because the prices will get continuously more expensive. there's less supply for the demand. Our population continues to grow and we're not building enough houses to match the demand.
And we just don't have the amount of resale inventory because we locked the majority of our properties into the two and three-percent loans. Those people aren't going to go anywhere unless there's a death unless there's a divorce unless there's a relocation, and that's few and far between.
Those know there's not the person that goes, oh if I move from this house where I gained four hundred percent equity into this house, My mortgage triples. I'm not going to do that. I'll wait. So those people that have low interest rates, they're locked in. Plus we have institutional buyers, industrial buyers, and people who buy more than a thousand homes across the United States.
They're locking up inventory and trying to convert America into a body of renters. I'm against that. I don't think it's healthy for the entire industry to be a majority of renters. What drives housing? Yeah, you gotta live somewhere, right?
you're going to have to buy a house and it doesn't matter when you're ready for the house. Don't wait. I've seen people say, I'm going to wait for the market to crash. When the market crashes, guess what happens? it's bad news.
When will. The market crashed again, crystal ball. There's no way for us to tell, right? We can go on to World War Three. We can go into an economic global downturn. Those things can happen, right? Will it happen? We don't know. A meteorite could hit us. The dinosaurs could come back. We just don't know when will the market crash?
Who knows guys? It's going to get more expensive to live here or wherever it is. You live, if you're in Florida or St. Louis or Texas, it's going to get more expensive to live here. The cost of living is going to continue to go up. Gas is going to continue to go up.
Food's going to continue to go up. Maintenance costs are going to go up. Housing supplies, like going to Lowe's or Home Depot and replacing a sink or a refrigerator, are going to get more expensive. Just get used to it. Home maintenance costs are soaring. The one thing you can lock yourself into is the price of the house that you buy today. refinance. I know my lender friends will tell you, Oh, you have to, it depends on the scenario, but refinance your house, pay off your mortgage,
Okay. Buy a house to pay off your mortgage. Don't ever refinance. Don't ever pull out a home equity line to buy a fricking boat. Here's the problem.
Let me reset myself. Here's the problem.
Renting vs. Buying: The Long-Term Perspective
If you buy a house today, instead of renting, you get economically locked into that price. Let's say it's 7, 000 a month. That's a lot of money. That's total PITI. You get economically locked into that.
In 20 years, you're going to be paying that 7, 000 a month might seem like a lot, but if you look at it from a renter's perspective. One, your rent's going to continue to go up every year, just like property tax and other states in California, we have Proposition 13, and your property tax goes up 2 percent max every year, right?
Your property tax is going to go up every year and say, don't, if you're a renter, you're paying property tax and you're paying insurance, you're paying interest for your landlord. Not only that, you're also paying off his loan and you're paying off someone else. To live off of you, there's some kind of cash flow on that.
So should you be a renter? Don't think being a renter is a smart thing, especially these days, because rent will continue to go up now in California. It can go up 5 percent every year. Depends on the situation. Some houses are protected. Some places are not protected. They can go up 10%. I want to go down here.
The consumer sent now households,
medium price. The median price will continue to go up over the years, right? Rent prices will continue to go up over the years. I don't care if you live in Indiana, rent prices will continue to go up. Now you might have a nice landlord and keep you up 600 for the rest of your life. And if you do, God bless you.
But that extra money shouldn't be spent on goofing off. It should be spent on investing, buying a property, and then renting that out. Our housing supply is horrible right now, and it's going to be horrible until they say four months. I say six months to make it a balanced market.
The rental vacancy is that's not going to be a problem. if you rent, your landlord could evict you for any reason whatsoever. Hey, I'm going to sell my house or I'm going to sell the apartment, or you're not making your payment, get the hell out or what have you, The Landlord might not fix that refrigerator or they might not fix that disposal or they might not fix that garage door.
So if you own it, yeah, it's going to suck, but you know what? That's what happens when you become an adult. You have to decide to do that. Can you afford it? If you can't afford it here, do it over there, but buy a house, go to Salinas, go to Monterey, go to Hollister, go to Fresno or Bakersfield, or go to another state.
I get it. I don't know what I'm doing. I don't know what I figured. I haven't figured out what I'm going to do with my kids yet. My son's 21. He's finishing college. My girls are getting into college next year. The plan is in flux, but I know that the smartest thing for me to do is put them in the house and help them buy a house, help them with a down payment.
I'm going to get them into a house. Because I can't see them throwing rent away every month. To a landlord that doesn't give a crap about you. It's going to get more expensive. And if you look at it from today's point of view, there's complete uncertainty about where you're going to live.
If you're a renter, there's complete uncertainty about how much you're going to pay and how much control you have in your destiny of where you're living. And I think it's Laszlo's pyramid or hierarchy of needs. You need to have a place to live. That's why real estate is very important. Off my little high horse by a freaking house or in a condo.
ABC News has an article right here for you to look at. I scrolled all the way down to the, I'm, I lost it. South Bay, right?
Fourth of July Events in the Bay Area
The Alameda, San Jose, Rose white and blue parade, 4th of July fireworks. Again, the link is down below in my blog. And if you're watching a video, the link is down below to the blog.
So just, you can do a quick search for July fireworks at Almaden Lake, Santa Clara County, 4th of July, Santa celebrates San Jose, Santa Clara City, 4th of July celebration at Mission College, Gilroy annual fireworks show. Milpitas. There are tons of places to do it, but the best place to do it is at La Colina Park.
Last time I swear there were 350 people on the hill. If you know La Colina Park, it's a 25-and-a-half-acre park. It's the second-largest park in San Jose. I'm the adoptee of the park. I'm supposed to go around cleaning it up every once in a while. Eh, do sometimes. There's a huge hill that I go up with my dogs every day and every 4th of July.
There's a ton of fireworks that you can see throughout the entire Bay Area, the entire Bay Area. You can see it all the way down to Redwood City, all the way up to Fremont. Such a great, spectacular. It's like watching a battlefield from a general's position. It's awesome. So maybe I should just play that so you can see it.
That link is in my blog. So go take a look. I'll be happy to watch it, have you watch it. I'll be, I'll put this on Facebook too.
Featured Homes: Willow Glen and Luxury Home of the Week
Willow Glen house of the week. Brace F. Now the reason why I chose this is because It's proof that people will buy anything. Yeah.
I know if you can see this or not. Let me open this up real quick. There you go. This house is one of those Winchester. This is a mini Winchester mystery house right here. It's tiny. What getting is the lot, but the lot is a sliver of a lot. It's freaking crazy tiny. It's right next to a park, right on the end of a cul de sac, which is a nice little tiny house, 685 square feet.
However, I don't think it was. always. I think they built on it. Yeah, you can see that they built onto it. See, that's the original structure right there. that's an add-on. And that's an add-on. oh, yeah, there you go. So there's your entry. Right away, you go into 2 different bedrooms, which is the primary, which is the smallest, but it has 1 bedroom.
Bathroom, two bedrooms, although there are three bedrooms here, a big old laundry, fourth bedroom, a kitchen, a living room. So what you're buying is a third of a lot, but it's a sliver of a lot.
There you go. That's the will of Glenn's house of the week guys. I think it's a great buy other than the fact that you're walking distance to, where is it? Yeah, that's not even the right. I don't get it. Where's the parking lot. Okay. Anyway, there you go. Here's the luxury home of the week. 23 million, seven bedrooms, seven and a half baths, 7, 000 square feet on three acres.
Okay. So I love the windows. I love the fact that these windows are so huge. You can see the entire Valley. So you're on top of a hill. That's a good-looking home. Just not a big fan of the flat roof. Very modern chic. Nice looking. If you want to look at it, links down below, go to my blog. You'll see it. Okay.
FREE HOME BUYER CHECKLIST HERE
Home Inspection Checklist and Market Report
Home Inspection CHECKLIST HERE
Home inspection checklist. This episode is brought to you by the home inspection checklist. If you're thinking about selling your house, Download this inspection checklist because this is what property inspectors will look for.
It'll help you do your honey-do list or get that stuff done. It'll walk you through the kitchen, the bathrooms, plugs, switches, windows, etc. So at least you have a list, a honey-do list. And then once that gets done, make sure you disclose, everything you've ever done to your property.
YTD SALES 12 Bay Area Counties
And then we'll have a property inspector come in and then you'll have a clean report. You can also do it as a buyer so you can actually do checks when you're doing a walkthrough of the house that you're in contract with. So nothing super exciting here. Santa Clara is still number one in volume and in numbers of sales and dollars of sales.
But San Mateo has the highest cost per house on average, 0. 6, whereas Santa Clara is 2. 3. These are average, not median. San Francisco's kicking ass. They're coming back hard. 10 percent over the list price just goes to show their following. They're attracting the market, not making the market. They have it listed low, bring in the buyers.
So we're almost at 6, 000 listings. In Santa Clara County. These are all single-family houses, by the way, we had 200 new listings this week, which is good. Normally we're at like 100 to 150 in contract. That's from year to date. And we had 200 homes go into contract. So there you go. Inventory is still really tight guys.
That's where we are today.
Conclusion and Final Thoughts
We talked about the housing market crash. Does the housing market get affected during an election year? I'm Vito with Avatano. Thanks for We'll see you out there.
Vito Scarnecchia Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad DRE#: 01407676 408-705-6817 Vito@abitano.com Website: abitano.com https://www.onereal.com/vito-scarnecchia-1 update your home value: https://hmbt.co/bT7qRJ RELOCATION@ABITANO.COM FREE DESKTOP APPRAISAL https://www.propertyrate.com/agent/vitoscarnecchia If you are moving ANYWHERE in the world - Let me know! I know a LOT of AMAZING Agents! Book appointments here: https://calendly.com/abitano/15min Home Buyers Course YT YouTube.com/SanJoseLiving IG https://www.instagram.com/abitanogroup/ FB https://www.facebook.com/vito.scarnecchia/ LI https://www.linkedin.com/in/vito-scarnecchia/ Blog http://blog.abitano.com/ POD https://spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/oxdH1Hwfcvb Professional Photography by Kim E https://photosbykime.com / Local Real Estate Market and Home Value Report https://hmbt.co/bT7qRJ Financial Intelligence https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSc0R5pjHIAPguZ5GDEB-fTbGJXKpWK3coK9Khymv_GTWkMnyQ/viewform?usp=send_form https://www.onereal.com/vito-scarnecchia-1 Willow Glen's five most expensive homes https://youtu.be/3A_E2ck0ePg
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