Housing Market Has Nearly 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers

 






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 Buyers are being smart. I get it. 

Current Market Trends and Buyer Behavior
We're seeing homes sit on the market a little bit longer, not necessarily in the Bay Area, especially Santa Clara County, but nationwide, we're seeing home sales dip. Home sales prices are staying. Fairly moderate, at least a little bit higher than what you have.

But the number of sales has actually consistently gone down month over month, and we'll talk about that in a second. Where are the buyers? You can talk about the interest rates, you can talk about the propaganda that we see on both sides of the news networks, 

Tariffs good. Recession, this recession that it's all about, doesn't matter because whether we go into a recession or not, prices will continue to rise for housing. Remember that right now there's a glut of inventory, some say it is over 500,000. 500,000 more sellers than there are buyers across the states.


Regional Market Insights

So in the Bay Area, in Santa Clara County, even in Blossom Valley or Almaden. Here's a quick snapshot, right? We're seeing a slight decline all over the US. Number of sales, not the actual prices. And this comes from Steven Yon, who is the long-lived NAR economist, Lawrence Yon, Chief Economist, the National Association of Realtors.

He's been around for decades. I feel like, regional breakdown. The area where it matters most for us is the Midwest, pending sales dropped 5% from March, but we're still up 2.2% since 2024. Okay. What does that mean? It means we're plateauing. We're not seeing a huge increase in the volume of sales. And the headline of my video is this right here from Realty Times.
The 
US housing market has nearly 500,000 more sellers than buyers, the most on record, which will likely cause home prices to fall. And yes, when there are more homes for sale than the number of buyers, then prices tend to fall. That's economy 1 0 1, right? It's, and it's good. It's actually good. I've been telling you this for the last few years, right? It's expensive to buy a home. These are the reasons why buyers are holding out. It's expensive to buy a home. Housing affordability is through the roof. A lot of people can't afford to buy a house, especially in Santa Clara County, with  $2 million homes.

That's the average, right? We don't know if we're going to go into a recession, and rates continue to be expensive. 7% on average, right? You can buy points down. We talk about that on Thursdays. 


Advice for Sellers: Pricing Strategies

Takeaways for sellers are that time is not on their side. Be aggressive in pricing.

List it low. Bring in the buyers. Let the buyers hit the market. If your house is worth $1.6 million, drop it to 1.5 million. Bring in the buyers. It will get up to where it needs to be. There will be smart agents that write offers based on what the comps show and what the value is. And if you have two or three or four offers, you can create the tempo.

You can create the values for it, right? 




Advice for Buyers: Finding the Right Deals
Even in a hot market, I would say hold on and wait for the houses that have been on the market 30, 40, 50, 90 days. Those are right for the picking. Some sellers will refuse to lower their price. So, get into the mindset of finding the right houses for you, writing offers, and writing offers that make sense to you.

History shows that home prices are cool when sellers outnumber, but that's Economy 1011, right? Miami and West Palm Beach are the strongest buyer's markets, with nearly three times more sellers than buyers definition of a buyer's market is when homes stay on the market over six months, and we'll see in a minute that we're nowhere near it here in the Bay Area.

Most. Home sellers are transitioning to another house, whether it's an empty nest relocation. A majority of my business is older folks moving into retirement communities, that kind of thing.

When you sell in a cool market, it's actually smarter. Yes, you get a lower sales price, but that also means lower selling costs. You pay me less. You pay Uncle Sam less. You pay the escrow company less, so less is better. In my opinion, right now we're at the precipice of either a dip or an increase, and we don't know what's gonna happen.

But when you go on the buy side, it's actually a good thing because there's less competition. And I open house this weekend, we had seven and nine buyers come through, I think a majority of those came from another house across the street. Here's the thing.

Buyers get a lot of choices. They're being picky right now. They're willing to wait. They know it's not the hot market. It was four or five years ago when they had to put $400,000 over list price. That just doesn't happen anymore. You can ask for contingencies, you can ask for concessions.

You can ask for a lower price. You don't have to worry about the appraisal gap. You don't pay a premium. You can ask for repairs. Lower closing costs and lower property taxes. So all in all, it's actually a better time to move.

I'm working on a house right now in Gilroy; they're buying a bigger house in Gilroy. Because they have a bigger family and it's time for them to move, they're going from a 2000 square foot home to a 2,500 square foot home in a community that they want, where their friends are, where their children go to school.

So it just makes sense. Right now, they've already hit the increase in the market. They're seeing the value of their home decrease a little bit. They're in contact with another house, so their motivation is. Let's move this out. I've been working with them for years to do this, so it's a great time to sell and buy.




Yes. You're not gonna get 400,000. The smart move, financially. It's to sell and move in a cool market. Cupertino House of the week, far Lap Drive, not my listing. $4 million for a five-bedroom, three full bath home, 2,700 square feet. Built in 1964. Updated this house backs into the creek, which is nice. And they have retaining walls, so if it ever does flood, you're somewhat protected.

But yeah, so you can see how this whole house was originally a three-bedroom and then they added on. Yeah, so nice. It's a nice house. This is a beautiful house worth $4 million. That's up to the buyer. 






Willow Glen. Home of the week is Coolidge Ave, not my listing. $2.2 million, three bedroom, two bath, 1800 square feet, built in 194,2, and it is walking distance to Lincoln Ave, which is their downtown.

Very modest, I wouldn't say original. This house was probably updated in the nineties or the early two thousands, with white appliances, so it's a very modest house, but there's a lot of stuff that you can do to it. This is smart. They take the screens off and park 'em off while the house sells because.

That increases your light in each room by about five to 10%. And every time I tell you about how to stage a house, I tell you bright and airy, that five and 10% increase in light actually makes a huge difference. So you see all the screens are off, that's great. It's smart, very smart of them to do that luxury home of the week.





Luxury Home Market Analysis
List price decrease. You can be a market maker, but if you think your house isn't gonna sell after. A hundred days the market's spoken, right? If you. Show a list, price decrease. It shows a weakness in your strategy. And the vultures will come in. This means this house is gonna sell for 20 or $21 million, which was my listing.

But this is a six-bedroom, seven and a half baths, 11 square foot mansion built in 2012. You can say, this is what my house is worth. This is what I refinanced it at, or what have you. I have an appraisal. It doesn't matter. It's what the buyers are willing to pay for it. 

I can tell people that's what it's worth. It doesn't matter what an appraiser says; he's not buying it. He's telling you what the comps are for the area. But if the market is dried up or the houses on the market are a hundred days like this one, gorgeous. Look at this. It's beautiful.

But it's worth 20 to $25 million. It's worth what a buyer is coming in and saying they're willing to pay. So keep that in mind. All right. 




Bay Area Sales Report
Year to date, the 12 Bay Area. County sales report. Santa Clara is still going strong. We flipped over 3000 homes sold, put on the market, or closed.

We closed 177. In contrast, I want to point out that San Benito, two closings last week. 170 homes in San Benito County. That's our neighboring county. Granted, they're working on Highway 25 to widen it and make it better. They're developing homes right now, but right now there are only two homes that have sold in that county versus 177.

Alameda County had 190 homes closed last week. We're at $7.6 billion in sales volume year to date, compared to San Benito, 142 million, and Alameda, 4 billion. San Mateo is half of what we're at. We're a high-volume county, and we have the numbers to match it. 2.4 million average sales price versus 2.6 million.

And the median prices are still about $2 million, right? Santa Clara County beat out San Mateo by $10,000. And the list price to sales price ratio is about 106% when priced right? Remember, if you have your house on the market for over 30 days, that means pricing is the one thing that's, you could throw marketing at it.

You could throw $10 million at advertising. But if a buyer's not looking at the house, saying, I'm going to pay that price, they're not gonna pay that price number of listings we have had is 5,500. Number in the contract.

Months of inventory may the final numbers have come drastically down. And we're looking at still 1.9 months of inventory. That means if we stop putting new houses on the market, we would run outta houses to sell in two months. It's the same thing with Blossom Valley.

I track Boston Valley 'cause that's where I live. It jumped up quite a bit from 1.6; the market's wonky in micro markets. And don't look at Santa Clara on the whole. You have to dig down deep, not just to your area, but your zip code and your one-mile radius when you're pricing out your house.

Understand when you price out your house, a buyer's not just gonna look at your house and the five or six comps that you're looking at. They're looking at it from a different mindset. They're looking at 70, 80 different houses online, going, yes, no, yes, no, yes, no. Then they bring it down to 30 or 40, and then they decide to go see five or 10 at a time.

How do we get those buyers to come and choose your house to be the right one? They're looking at houses from. Immaculate condition, meticulously upgraded everything, and priced right to homes that are in original condition, and maybe priced a little too high.

And they're not looking just at your house in your one-mile radius; they're looking at all the houses that make sense to them. And it could be 10 different zip codes. It could be. Three to four different cities. It could be two different countries. So they're looking at a massive amount of different homes, and they're gonna travel 50, 60, 70 miles in a day to go look at open houses, and they're gonna compare your house to everything else.

If your house sits on the market, that means the buyers have seen your house either online or in person, and made a decision that there's a better house for them to buy. Pricing is very important. You could spend $10 million marketing it, advertising it, throwing it out there to the world.

But if you're not getting traffic, if you're not getting showings, if you're not getting a huge number of people coming in and looking at your house over an open house weekend, price is what is holding back the sale of your house. Enough said. 

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

All right. That's it for now. Thanks for watching. I'm Vito with Ano.

We'll see you out there. 


🔴 Gorgeous Custom Built Estate 1036 Ridgemark Dr


Vito Scarnecchia

Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad

DRE#: 01407676

408-705-6817

Vito@abitano.com

Update your home value: https://hmbt.co/bT7qRJ      

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If you are moving ANYWHERE in the world - Let me know! I know a LOT of AMAZING Agents!


🔴 Willow Glen's five most expensive homes https://youtu.be/3A_E2ck0ePg



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