The ‘magic bullet’ that could boost home sales

 





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The ‘magic bullet’ that could boost home sales

Nothing like coffee at 1230 in the afternoon. Hey, so wanted to get this out. My morning was crazy 'cause I had to do flights and put people on. Here we are. 


Market Overview and Key Insights


The magic bullet that could boost home sales from Lawrence Yon, our NAR Chief Economist. This guy has been around for decades.


Pretty smart guy. He knows what he's talking about, and he's telling us, as an industry, why the market is slowing. It's still not bad; it's not hurting. Certain areas are hurting right now. Certain areas are seeing a slowing, some are seeing a decline, or a depression.


Santa Clara is doing really well, just so you know. We'll go into that in a minute, chief. Economists believe that there's one ingredient that's holding back home sales this year, and it may be one of the toughest to nail down. Lawrence said he's seeing signs that buyer demand is ongoing, meaning that it's consistent, home price growth is moderate, and wage growth is outpacing inflation. However, 30-year mortgages continue to hover around 7%. We're talking about that in a minute. Okay? That's hurting the market.


We have inflation, government debt. It's not helping. It's leading us into fear of a recession, 



Mortgage Rates Remain Flat

Impact of Recession Fears


Never fear. Every time we go into a recession, we see home prices continue to go up every time in history, since it's been measured in the last 40, 60 years, except for once in 2008, which was a major global catastrophe that we solved in two years.


Okay, so fears a recession and strain. I would not fear the recession. I know that's putting a lot of buyers on the fence. That fear is the biggest reason why you don't do anything. Fear of getting in front of an audience, fear of getting in front of a camera, et cetera.


But here's the thing. If you buy a house today, in 30 years, your house will outpace inflation or keep up with inflation. Your dollar can't do that. Gold does not do that. Houses do that. That's what this whole report is about, another one. May 8th. Mortgage rates remain flat, but it also talks about the whole thing.




Mortgage Rates this week 

Mortgage Rates and Buyer Strategies


We've been at 7% for a very long time, for almost two, three years now, up and down close to it. It came down to six again, but that was during the election cycle. All politicians do that. It doesn't mean you can't buy your rates down. You can still buy it down to sub-six. You can get it close to six or even sub-six, depending on what it is.


And yesterday we talked about 44% of the home sales have sellers contributing to concessions. There are also concessions to be asked for because the market is slowing down. Can you ask for concessions on a house, brand new on the market?


No, but if it's been on the market 30, 40, 50 days, you can negotiate, right? You can negotiate, get out there. And if you're thinking about buying, now's the time to do it. June 15th, plus or minus a couple of days, the feds are going to testify. Jerome Powell's gonna testify again, and we don't know if he's gonna come down on interest rates, but if he does, it's going to be a quarter percent, and that's not enough to get us back in the market.


I think we need to bring rates down to six plus or minus 25 to 50 beeps. The only way this is gonna happen is that we bring it down and attract the market. Bring the market back. Do we do it slowly? I think we have enough engine moving right now and things going on that if we open up the market, homes would sell a lot faster.


But that's a bad thing for buyers because when the rates come down, more buyers enter the market. That means more competition, and prices go up. That's why I'm saying if you're thinking about buying now versus June, after June 15th,  




What you get for $2MM in Santa Clara County 

Real Estate Listings Analysis


This is what you get for $2 million in. San Jose.

This thing looks amazing, but I'm thinking, why five bedrooms, sm 3000 square feet? Only $2 million. What's wrong with it? To me, it looks like it's a total fixer-upper. It's on Adonis Way. It's not my listing, and it's between 85 and 17. Good Sam Hospital. This is a great area, and it is still San Jose 9 5 1 2 4. So it's still considered, Almaden, but it's in the Los Gatos area. This looks like something I want to go take a look at. So there you go. Okay. What do you get for a million dollars? I zoned it in. There are 50 of 'em in the Santa Clara County, but I wanted to look at these three.


Just to compare and contrast, right? This is in my neighborhood. I live over here. This is still 9 5 1 2 3 Belden, which is right here. And then you get one right over here on the east side of 1 0 1, and this is 9 5 1 1 1. And then you have one on the rotor, which is down here now. 


Three bedroom, two bath. Three bedroom, one bath for $25,000 difference. I would right away say no to that one, especially since it's only 960 square feet versus this one, 1800 square feet versus 1300 square feet. Why am I showing you this? Because when we're doing comps, when we're pricing out homes, it's important for us to understand that fires don't just look at the one-mile radius of your home.


They look at 40, 50, 60 homes, and then they narrow it down to 10 or 15 to look at. And if you're overpriced by 10 or 15 or 20 or 30 or $50,000, your house is gonna get passed off, right? This one right here is going to go into the market faster. Even though this one's closer to Silver Creek, you're gonna get a lot of freeway noise here.


And this one, to me, is the best Buy. So let's take a quick look at it. Three bedrooms to a bath. 1800 square feet. Wish it were my listing. So a nice house, single story, and it's right by Macte and Village Oaks, and Blossom Hill, and 85. So you can get to freeways really easily. Let's take a quick look inside.


Thank you for doing the floor plan, whichever agent this is. It's nice that you do that. I think it's a professional service. I think it's a necessary thing. If you're selling your house for resale, you have to have air conditioning in your house. Same thing with this. I think it's a necessity. The technology is so simple. For us to do this, it's a no-brainer. And if you have to pay for it, I think it's a worthwhile thing, and I would demand it if I were a home seller.


Look at the original cabinets, stainless steel appliances. I think that's granite, but the backsplash is a little much for me. I don't like the high contrast. It looks weird, but that was their taste. So that's what it is. They're selling it as is. This does have air conditioning.



What you get for $1MM in SILICON VALLEY 

This house is gonna sell really fast. It needs a little bit of paint. I would say paint and some landscaping. And you're good to go. This thing for a million bucks, it's a great buy. Let me know if you're interested in buying it. That's where we are. 





Inventory And Supply Charts

Current Market Trends and Conclusion


Okay, so my charts were getting a little bit big, but what I'm showing here today is I'm gonna open this up so you can see there, not see how I'm nice and centered now.


Days on market's going up, months of inventory are going up, but that's 'cause we're in June. These numbers may have come out, and we're seeing numbers jump up because the rates are staying high. Is that a bad thing? I don't think it's a bad thing. I don't think it's gonna hurt our market.


I don't think it's gonna hurt our microcosm of a market. Because people are still buying houses. One of the three houses that I have on the market on my block just went into pending because they acknowledged the fact that the price was too high. They dropped it down, and they had a slew of buyers this last weekend.


So it got sold in a matter of a few days. Same thing here. We're still in a seller's market. Same thing with Santa Clara County. You're seeing some numbers go up, some numbers go down, but we're pretty stable all the way through. There you go. That's it for now. Thanks for watching Vito with Abano.


We'll see you out there. Have a great weekend. 







🔴 Video Living in San Jose in the No. 4 spot. in US  https://youtu.be/hxw5k739OKU?t=521

Vito Scarnecchia


Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad

DRE#: 01407676

408-705-6817

Vito@abitano.com

Update your home value: https://hmbt.co/bT7qRJ      

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