NAR Forecast: Home Sales Expected to Jump 14% in 2026 | 12 County Bay Area Real Estate Report


 

Hidden homeownership costs are straining affordability.
NAR Forecast: Home Sales Expected to Jump 14% in 2026
San Jose Real Property Transfer Tax Increases to homes sold over $2.3 million.
12 County Bay Area Real Estate Report
Cupertino Home of the Week
Willow Glen Home of the Week
Luxury Home of the Week
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Is Home Ownership Still Affordable?


Is it affordable to buy a house anymore today in California or across the 50 United States? Yes and no. It depends on where you are really. Home ownership in California has gotten way outta range right now. And it's insurance, actually, let's take a look at this real quick.



Hidden homeownership costs are straining affordability.y

Hidden Costs of Home Ownership

Hidden home ownership costs are straining affordability, Insurance. Insurance premiums have surged 50% since 2020. If you're a hundred, now you're paying 150 for your insurance.


As a matter of fact, it says right here in the past year, those costs have increased 4.7.


On top of groceries, on top of gas, on top of everything else. Homeowners. Insurance is astronomic. It's, almost impossible.


buyers, who are already facing affordability. Challenges in today's market need to understand and budget for the less obvious expense when calculating. 


Insurance Premiums and Rising Costs


Since February, 2020, home insurance premiums have risen 48%. That's nearly $2,000 a year On a typical home, Florida has been hit particularly hard.


Up 72%. Jacksonville is also seen a 72% rise because of the hurricanes. Same thing in California. On top of that, home maintenance has gotten expensive too. Now you go to Home Depot or Lowe's, you've seen prices kind of contract there.


Not really. They're still outrageously expensive, but that's because we got hit with a ton of inflation over the years. And the problem is the average income has not kept pace with all these expenses, all this inflation, and I think it's actually cheaper today to rent. 


Alternative Housing Options


Instead of buy now, could you buy a rental in another state or another city where it's not as crazy expensive?


Yes, I have people doing that. I have people buying in Houston and in Austin because it's just more affordable there for them to buy a house rented out. And then you get all the write offs as a business owner. So something to think about. If you want to talk more about it, or if you have any comments, put them down below.



NAR Forecast: Home Sales Expected to Jump 14% in 2026

NAR Forecast and Market Predictions

NAR Forecast. Over the weekend, NAR sent out this thing where they have 72% or. Things about how they're going to show us that they're worth what we pay them. Now, it's not a huge amount. I mean, it's a lot, right? It's a lot. When you go over 2 million agents, they make a ton of money off of us, and it's the second most powerful union in the United States.


And I'm not a big union guy, especially when there's corruption involved. I believe that typical unions, like the trade unions, have a purpose to protect those. Those are theirs. The NAR doesn't do that. The NAR doesn't take care of what its feature is. Their mission statement is to protect the realtor, the brand, to protect the agents, and to protect the consumer, and they have not done that.


So anyway, forecast, I don't have a problem with the economist. Lawrence Yung, I think they just need to restructure and figure out what they're worth. Just like HOAs, I think they need to figure out what value they bring because every time I talk to somebody about what an HOA does for them, they just say, They take my money.


He says that existing home sales are projected to rise by 14%, and that's by unit, not by price. He also says next year we're gonna see a 4% gain in home prices, and that's because rates will come down, and inventory will go up.


This is all his. Speculation, right? Mortgage rates are expected to decline modestly by around 6%. We're already on target for that for the next testimony. We understand that as we go into next year, the mortgage rate will be a little bit better. Buyers will see the greatest affordability improvements in regions where housing supply is most robust.


Think about it. When there's more supply, there's less demand. If the inventory goes up and demand stays, prices will come down. The problem is we don't have enough housing inventory. We don't have enough new home starts. 


We don't have enough resale inventory on the market because in 2021 we went down to two half percent. And 60% of all the mortgage owners have rates down at two and a half to 3.5%. Why would they move if it's seven or even six? I think it's still gonna be A friction point for us. 


Challenges for First-Time Home Buyers


In contrast, first-time home buyers continue to face steep challenges, including insurance, interest rates, including living in the area you choose to live in.

Because typically income rates are, on average, lower, and a lower-income area or a lower-home-cost area just is what it is.  The biggest struggle for first-time buyers is finding affordable property, and then many of them struggle to save for a down payment. Well, you know, you gotta live below your means, right?

And that's it. There's no reason for you to have a hundred thousand-dollar car if you don't own a house. Doesn't make sense to me. Despite these affordability challenges, the use of real estate agents remains strong among blah, blah, blah. Yeah. 




Cupertino Home of the Week

Cupertino House of the Week

Use a real estate agent, Cupertino House of the Week, an average square foot house for $3 million in Cupertino.

Why? Because of the schools, because you're close to Apple, because you're close to all. The high-tech jobs are just miles away from Facebook, LinkedIn, Apple, you name it. $3 million for a three-bedroom, three-bath, 2,158 square foot house built in 1977.

It is on a little tiny lot. That's awesome. Here it is. It's actually in a really great area. This is deep Cliff Golf course right here, I think. Yeah. No, this is Deep Cliff. This is another one. This is another nine-hole Stevens Creek. It's really easy to get to.

You can get to it from 85 or 80 off of Foothill Boulevard. And let's take a look inside real quick. Vaulted ceiling, mature landscaping, staged, a little dated kitchen. There's an upstairs loft. It looks like. Maybe that's the office. You could build that into A bedroom if you wanted. And let's see if they did the right thing and gave you a floor plant. There you go. So yeah. Family room. You can make that into a fourth bedroom if you want to.

You can just build a wall right there. And then downstairs, you have the primary room, the living room, kitchen.


Bathroom. So yeah, you can make this into an easy four-bedroom. So there you go. 




Willow Glen Home of the Week

Willow Glen House of the Week

Stock Meyer, Nevada Ave. This is Willow Glen House of the week, and this is not. I don't understand. $1.5 million. This is a teardown. It's what this is. Three bedroom, two bath, 1400 square feet, built in 1933.

You're buying the land. Let's take a look inside. It is within walking distance of downtown Main Street, which is Lincoln Ave. In Boula Glen. Whew. Yeah, this is a teardown. I wanna see how much this one goes for because, yikes.  




Luxury Home of the Week

Luxury Home of the Week

And then the luxury home of the week is 85. Fagan Drive.  Ladies, get your men to buy this castle because it's not gonna last long. It seems beautiful. Nine bedrooms, eight and one-half baths, 13,000 square feet, and over two acres.


It was built in 1917. It's in the Hillsborough Oak Ridge area in Hillsborough. And let's take a look. Wow.


Yikes. This is beautiful. You can walk in there. Looks like they put in A new dishwasher 'cause dishwashers never last.  


Conclusion and Market Overview


If you're thinking about selling your house, download this home inspection checklist.

Home Inspection CHECKLIST HERE https://abitanogroup.com/homeinspectionchecklist

It will help walk you through every nook and cranny of your house to get it fixed up before the inspector comes in, so you can present to your buyer A nice, clean home inspection report. And nothing crazy is going on outside of the fact that we've made it to $17 billion in revenue in home sales in Santa Clara County.


It's crazy how. We're one of the most expensive places to live. Santa Clara County is the second most expensive place to li, ve next to San Mateo, but our volume is twice that of San Mateo. It's crazy thinking about it. And right now it costs you 103, $104 for every item that's listed on the price there.

And so far we've sold 7,400. Or in contrast, we've had 7,400 homes. We've sold 7,200, so we have roughly 200 in contract. All right, that's it for now. Happy Monday. Hope you had a great weekend. I'm Vito with Abano. Thanks for watching. We'll see you out there.


 





🔴 Gorgeous Custom Built Estate 1036 Ridgemark Dr https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiP41bXXA0E

Vito Scarnecchia
Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad
DRE#: 01407676
408-705-6817
Vitos@abitano.com
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If you are moving ANYWHERE in the world - Let me know! I know a LOT of AMAZING Agents!

🔴 Willow Glen's five most expensive homes https://youtu.be/3A_E2ck0ePg
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