The Housing Market Is Crashing Quietly | Santa Clara County HI/LO of the Week




 

Santa Clara County HI/LO of the Week
The Housing Market Is Crashing Quietly
Aging homeowners hold the key to unlocking supply-side relief
Santa Clara County Highs and Lows
Los Gatos Home of the Week
Santa Clara County Price Reductions
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Home Inspection CHECKLIST HERE https://abitanogroup.com/homeinspectionchecklist




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Market Analysis: Is the Market Quietly Crashing?
Is the market quietly crashing?  I don't know. I think we're in a holding pattern. I'm learning to trade on the US 30.

My buddy Reese has been teaching me, and his mentor has been teaching me how to trade. I'm not trading real money. I'm trading demo dollars is what I call it. But I'm seeing the market kind of go into equilibrium or balance.  This guy, his name escapes me now, but it's the National Real Estate Post.

He's a lender up in Vallejo. He's an amazingly smart guy. And he talks about what's going on in the market, so like Ryan Lundquist, who's my stats Muse.

This guy does great stats as well. Sharing all the information I gather, but I think it's smart for me to bring this to you so that you have a quick down and dirty of what they're saying. 




Economic Indicators and Predictions
So what they're saying is across the US, we're seeing a recession right in the Bay Area.

I don't know if we have that just yet. I see prices continuing to go up. Year over year, month over month, except for this last month. It sucked. But that's just because we were in anticipation. Some people were getting desperate to sell, and buyers took advantage of that.

So will the market come back? Depends. I know a lot of people who are unemployed right now. I know a lot of people who are fearful that they might lose their jobs. Does that mean that we're going to see a crash? Does that mean that the real estate market will trigger the crash?

No. I think the automotive market is going to be the downfall of this market. We're gonna start seeing news articles about the shadow inventory of repossessions on the mainstream news. Right now we're seeing it on streams, on shorts, on different, you know, Crash Bros videos and things like that. I don't think we're gonna see it for another couple of weeks or a couple of months. The house cars that were built on automotive, housing, military, defense, Healthcare, GDP, you know, think we're all stacked up on a house of cards, and if that falls.

One thing falls, I think the whole house will fall. It could be, it could come from China, right? That could bring down the entire global economy, which could hurt a lot of people. So. 






Housing Market Dynamics

Housing. I don't know if that's a great place to be. If you think you want to hedge your money and keep inflation going.

However, housing has consistently always matched inflation, the inflation of the dollar. Same with gold. So consider gold. I know gold's really expensive right now, but, in order to stave off deflationary tactics or deflationary actions of the dollar, maybe buy some gold because that will hold its value a lot longer.

Housing supply. Housing supply shortage, a weighty generational relay. 

This is the silver tsunami. The silver tsunami means that as people age out and pass on, they tend to give up their homes or empty nest or get smaller homes, which is great for new generations to come in. However, new generations want to buy new homes, and so we have to see this action of new home buyers.

Settling in. Five to seven years later, they buy another house 'cause their family's expanding or what have you, and then they move into a bigger house. And then some of them make it really big, and then they buy the $50 million houses, which is great. But in between, you have houses like the Cupertino House or the Saratoga House, which are five to $7 million.

Right. What's stopping that? Our bottleneck, if you would, is that generational homeowners or aging homeowners are staying in place. They're not moving on. 







Tax Implications for Homeowners

And in California, it's especially desperate because we have Proposition 19 and Proposition 13, which keep the taxes low for those people.

If you bought a house for $200,000, your tax basis goes up 2% every year for the most part. Max, outside in Texas and other states, we don't have those protections. So if you had bought a house for 50,000, 70,000, hundred thousand dollars and now it's worth 500,000, you're paying taxes on $500,000.

That's just the way it is. That's why Florida and Texas are piping up about getting rid of property tax, 'cause they think it's unconstitutional or unfair or whatever. It is for the generational, the older folks that are no longer generating income, and they're resting on their savings and their retirement to get them through the rest of their lives.

And when taxes do that, it kind of forces them to empty nest and get out and get 'em to an apartment or a smaller condo or something because they don't really need to be in a larger house. This article talks about that going into. Opening up the supply chain, opening up the next generational homes or the next step, not necessarily first-time home buyer homes, but the next step, the next home for you to buy as you move on.

You want to buy a nicer house in 2020 or 2021. You bought the house that you could afford or could scrape together and get in and pay two to $400,000 over time, you can move over to the next house. It's gonna cost you a lot more because interest rates are more expensive, which is something that will, over time, level out.

Right now we're seeing rates go. Back up towards 7%, and right now I think the qud rate is 6.3 today. So this is a great article to read. It actually helps you understand the logic behind what's going on in our market. So take a look if you haven't done so yet. 







Home Inspection Checklist
If you haven't done so yet, download this home inspection checklist.

I know I harp on it all the time, but I think it's a big value to you, especially if you're thinking about selling in the next three to six months. You can download this, go through the checklist, and find things that you need to have repaired. Then call the handyman or the painter, the plumber, and get things fixed.

And then you can bring in your inspector so they can give you a clean report and always disclose things that you repair there.  






Featured Property: Los Gatos Home of the Week
Los Gatos home of the week. I think I picked this one right here. Even though it's in the fire zone, I still like it because to me, this is a grand mansion.

I think this is a great value cause you're in Los Gatos and not Palo Alto. All the homes seem to be in San Mateo County or Palo Alto, because that's where all the bazillionaires live. But if you really want a nice estate, this is a nice 20-acre estate. Plot of land with six bedrooms on it. It's almost 10,000 square feet, built in 1937. Let's take a quick look inside if we can. Wow. Very stately. This is a beautiful house. I love the cats. A lot of scatters.

I hope that's not laminate. I hope that's real wood.

Wow, guys, this is a beautiful house.

Okay. Again, these links are in the Back. This is Los Gatos Home of the Week, and then Highs and Lows. 



Highs and Lows: Real Estate Market Highlights
This is the most expensive house sold in Santa Clara County. This week was also the lowest list price to sales price ratio, 74.5. Listed about $10 million, and it sold for 7.45, took 141 days to sell, so you got a 25% discount on it because they tried to make it a market maker. It wasn't a market maker because something was overpriced, and then they got desperate and they took it. Where is this? This is Kennedy Road. So open this up so you can take a look.

There it is. It's off of Los Gatos, but it's also in the fire zone, so you have to take Cyprus way and then a windy road to get to it. So there's only one exit. You're in a fire zone, so if the fire actually happens, you'd better have some protection there.

It's a beautiful house. Let's take a look inside real quick. Wow. Opulent veryt, skinny.

And here's the deal, guys, right? When you're looking at houses, I don't care if you're looking at $10 million houses or. $2 million houses. If the house has been on the market for 60, 70, or 90 days, you have options to come in and write an offer that suits your needs, period. If the house is overpriced, you should be asking for discounts and concessions.

This is a beautiful house in a regular market. This probably could have sold at 10 million, but the market's contracting, and that's where we are right now. Let's take a look at this one. This is the highest list price to sales price ratio. Summer Hill Ave and Los Altos. Listed at three, sold for 4.8, not my listing.

Two bedrooms, one bath, $5 million for two bedrooms. You know why they bought it? Because it's an acre. It's worth the lot. Yeah, see that thing is gonna be torn down. It was just ruthless. The value is in the land there. Let's take a look. Look at the lowest-cost house in Santa Clara County.





This one sold for the least amount of money. $730,000. Vine Street, not my listing. Two bedroom, one bath, 870 square feet, 115 years old. And let's take a quick look inside. Everything's original. Yeah, this thing is a rental. There you go. And if you wanna look, here are the numbers right here. Straight up.

74.5%, 92%. And that's not to say that these houses are not selling for, well, over, right? 

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Alright, that's it for now. Thanks for watching. I'm Vito. We'll see you out there.

  



🔴  5 Cities Near San Jose | Moving to San Jose https://youtu.be/sDkdDq42vo8?t=46  

🔴 The Five Biggest Turn-Offs For Homeowners https://youtube.com/shorts/lwknH5DCS5c 

Videos edited by Vydeoease.com Use Exemption code VEASY

Vito Scarnecchia

Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad

DRE#: 01407676

408-705-6817

Vitos@abitano.com 

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If you are moving ANYWHERE in the world - Let me know! I know a LOT of AMAZING Agents!

🔴 Willow Glen's five most expensive homes https://youtu.be/3A_E2ck0ePg


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