Big changes coming to real estate in 2026
Big changes coming to real estate in 2026
Urgent action is needed on the housing supply shortage
PROBATE AND ESTATE SALES
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Santa Clara County Price Reductions
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Introduction and Real Estate Landscape Overview
For the last half. The real estate landscape has been a major turmoil and change, which is good. Change is always good, right? 20, 30 years, 20 years ago, Zillow came on board, and change is good, right? Everything about change is good for everybody, right? And that's good.
What. We don't want to see old dinosaurs, like the National Association of Realtors, hanging on to their belief system when it really doesn't help anybody but their own coffers. I said it. I said it. I mean it. I said it a long time ago. It's not like that's news, but let's talk about what's going on.
There are going to be some big changes happening, and two articles today that I'll be working on, so let's get into it. We've been talking about that for the last, I don't know, since I've been on video. We need to build more homes, period. We need to build more homes that match the growth of our population, not just the birth, but the people who are moving here legally or illegally.
We need people living here. Our population is continuing to grow, and it doesn't matter if they're here legally or illegally. The point is, economically, we need more doors, we need more bedrooms, we need more housing to fill in. The gap of people who are living in these places. Building apartments, building condos and townhouses, multi-story townhouses. I guess that's going to be the new norm. You buy a new home in San Jose and it's a three story behemoth with a 13 by 20 foot backyard. That's the normal because there's just not enough land. And whatever land they do buy a developer does buy is precious.
It's very expensive. So instead of putting six houses on an acre, now they're putting 10 houses on an acre. And that hurts you as a consumer. But a lot of consumers don't really care. 'cause they don't want the lawns, the landscape, the front lawn, right? They're okay. Parking and living and then eating, and then going to sleep, and then going to work.
I'm selling a house just like that in Hayward right now. If you want a front yard and a backyard, great. There's houses like that. But if you want it new, it's gonna be like what I showed you before.
I'll tell you that right now. Not professional looking to me, but again, I'm not shaving My hair's all a us I just got back from the gym though.
Challenges in the Current Housing Market
Anyway, the CEO of MOVE Inc, which owns realtor.com announced a resolution for 2020. Let's recommit ourselves to shared purpose and unite us fighting access to the American homeowner.
Fighting for access. Move Inks News Corp. The whole wallpaper, LA setting. Supply shortage. Look, we need homes to be built. And granted, we might be in a slowdown right now, the economy could crash, but guess what? It could last a year. It could last five years. But after that, we're going to be in economic growth.
The economists right now are stating that we're going to going go into an economic boom. I don't have a crystal ball. I don't know what the future holds for us, but economists seem to think that the economy is going to boom.
I don't know. The pandemic was a huge. Thirst trap for a lot of people. Sub 4%, 80% of the home Inc. 80% of mortgage owners right now are sub 4%. How can you justify going to another house and paying 7% or even 6%, or even 5%? It just doesn't make sense. On top of that, when they bought, even though they paid a lot of money, they paid a premium for a house in 2021, it has increased in value.
So yeah, they could sell their house and then move into another house. But then their income is their rate's going up, their mortgage is going up, their taxes are going up. The insurance is going up. So really, why would they move? The answer is we can't re really rely on those houses that were sold.
Yes, there will be some through death, through divorce, through layoffs, what have you, but that is going to be a small population of the homes that come for sale today. The new homes are where it's going to be, especially in high demand markets like Santa Clara County and Palo Alto. Santa Clara County is a high volume area too, and we're not seeing a huge rock on the loss of value over the last six months. Yesterday it said we did see a little bit, but that was only in certain areas on the east side of 87 or the east side of San Jose proper.
So until. Politicians come up with some sort of legislations that help people that make an average income of $70,000 afford a house that's 400,000, or maybe they make lower income houses. The average income in the US is $70,000. You can't afford to live in Santa Clara County if you make $70,000.
So we're talking about people that live in, I don't know, St. Louis or little areas. So just keep that in mind. There's going to be incentives For developers to buy property and to develop for lower income, not low income, not subsidized income, but low income.
There's gonna be a happy in between Right now, especially in the Valley, especially in the Bay Area. It's. Foolish for a developer to buy something where it's I don't know, one and a half, one to $2 million for an acre of land or a half an acre of land and then put another house on it.
They're not gonna do low income there. It just doesn't make sense. Any kind of development community like the kbs that are happening over on Communication Hill? I don't see that. As an answer because more people can't afford houses than can't afford houses. So there's gonna be this thing where if you have an entire development, you get massive tax incentives or something to build for lower income that's subsidize your profit somehow.
Anyway, that's that. Probate and estate sales, we talk about that all the time. Big business for me right now. I have a few people that I'm working with right now, getting their parents into older care or active adult communities. So if it's something you wanna learn more about it's a big process.
It's an arduous process, and let me help you do that.
Future Predictions and Market Trends
Big changes could be coming to real estate in 2026. This is a prediction by Dave Gallagher at the Real Estate News Network. And buyers Agent commissions settlements could be overturned. If you remember a couple years back we had that lawsuit and now it was like a million dollars or a billion dollars.
And basically the class action lawsuit only benefited the class action lawyers. Yeah. 'cause everybody else, if you're a plaintiff, you made like 2,500 bucks. So that was a total waste of everything and it screwed everybody else up. Here's what's probably gonna happen. We're gonna revert back to the old way and we're gonna be able to say, Hey, we're going to offer you X amount commission, period.
We'll put it in your offer and let's see what happens. But understand that is the total outcome, the bottom line that might makes sense to my seller. So if you're competing against another house, another offer, and your offer is $10,000 less total in. You're screwed. Even though you might be like 2% or 1% offered to the buyer's commission or the buyer's even paying the commission.
That's a huge thing. So I don't really work with a lot of buyers today, mostly because. The system's whacked up and I'm settling out to see what happens. And NAR will continue shifting its efforts to make rules for multiple listing services to advocacy guys. The way it's set up right now is I'm a realtor.
I don't like to claim it because this whole NAR thing has really proven to me that they don't care about anything but filling their coffers. They spent $800,000 on a logo rebrand. I know it takes time. It takes money to make money, but they're a nonprofit. They're supposed to be a not-for-profit.
How much money does everybody make in those upper echelons? They don't really care about the realtors. They don't even care about the little people, the cogs that are working inside of n ar, and they don't care about. Client. I can tell you that because I have never seen a direct line of impact from NAR to helping a client.
I just don't see it. They talk about it. They say we help, but I don't see it. I don't see that direct client and I challenge them to show us what that line is. How do you in fact, help the client? How do you help the consumer, the home buyer and the home seller? How do you help them? So anyway, we're trying to make it so that make it easier rules fair without getting sued again, because they're afraid of getting sued.
'cause they owe like $800 million. MLSs will be able to set their own rules. And here's what's gonna happen. Like in Santa Clara County, there's two MLSs, but there's also Alameda, there's San Mateo there's MLSs everywhere. And if MLSA in Santa Clara County says you have to be an NAR, oh, that's the other thing is in order to be a member of an MLS, you have to be a local board member on either score or silvar.
Then you have to be a California Association realtor, and you have to be an NAR associate or member or whatever, and I have to pay dues to all of that. If I had a choice, I would say I give up my brand of realtor. 'cause I don't really use it. I don't really care for it. And the last couple years have besmirched the value of what a realtor is.
If MLSA tells me I have to be a MLS, an NAR member, and MLSB says, I don't guess where I'm going to go. Path of least resistance for me. I'm willing to give up my brand as a realtor because people know me as veto the real estate agent, the all knowing guy that does videos and sends out R-E-W-T-F posts.
I haven't branded myself as a realtor for a very long time, although I am. And the only thing that they have to say is that we belong to, or we all adhere to a list of ethic things and there's no enforcement. That's the other thing that pisses me off.
I think government needs to stay out of the fingers of it. They can provide legislation and oversight, but getting their fingers into government housing only winds up. Creating ghettos. And I'm not saying it as a bad thing, it just, when you give people too much, they expect it and they become dependent on it.
And then there's a latency on that and it doesn't help anybody. And that's just my point of view. Government housing needs to bow out and just jurisdictionally, governed by regulation, only sticking their fingers into anything. Look at the post office. You're paying a dollar for a fricking letter these days.
It's ridiculous. It costs less to print than to mail. That's 'cause the government has their fingers in it. I, I can go on and on, but there you go. Highs and lows. Tuesday high and low of the first one of the year. This one is Rebecca Lane, not my listing. It came in a little bit under list price, $5.35 million, 4,600 square foot on a one and a quarter acre lot in Los Altos Hills.
It's nice except for those little philomena statues. Get rid of that. That's nice.
They have a floor plan? Nope. No floor plan. Okay. The lowest priced house or the lowest sold house? 663,000. Not my listing. Uck Suffolk. 1376 Suffolk. No lane, no drive. That's where 9 5 1 2 7 Near Capital Expressway. I think this is a great buy for anyone that needs to get into a house. $663,000. If you find houses around there right now, it's a great buy.
morning the highest list price of sales price ratio of the year. So far is this one right here on Eileen Drive in 9 5 1 2 ninth San Jose, $2.6 million. I think it was one a hundred thirty one a hundred thirty 1% over list price. Isn't that crazy? 31% over list price took five days to sell.
Just goes to show. If you list it low, you'll sell it fast This is the lowest list price to sales price ratio, which was 60.6% of original list price, originally listed at 1.7. Sold at Just over a million dollars. This is State Street in El Viso. I've sold homes in El Viso.
It's not a very attractive area, although you are close to the marina, you're close to the Bay Area, the bay, which is nice. It's just getting to, it's sticky. But it is what it is. Three bedroom, two bath, 1700 square feet built in 1940. Take a quick look inside. You got a plot map. That's great.
Actually, it looks like it's two parcels. That totally makes zero sense to me. Yeah, but that's a shack. Boy, I tell you what in the world are you talking about? That is making no sense whatsoever. Okay. I'm confused. And this is the
Los Gatos Home of the week is Cyprus Way. I think we talked about it before that seeming familiar, but it's brand spanking new. New $4.28 million Cypress Way, not my listing. Five bedroom, four bath, 2,600 square feet. Built in 2025. Let's take a quick look inside. Again, everything you're looking at has just been installed.
Nobody's ever lived there. Look, they took it and make it a portrait or postage stamp lot. But you don't get a whole lot of backyard and a lot of people don't care about that because they'd rather have more home, especially when in the $4 million range, right? But at least they put a fourth plan together, and thank you for doing that.
Market Statistics and Final Thoughts
And then here is your recap. Average highest sold price was $10 million. Price of sales. Price ratio. The average. price to sales price ratio in Santa Clara County for single family homes is 96.8%.
So just a little bit under, but we're still seeing a lot of homes sell for over. Just on the average. It came down a little bit, told you we had a price correction. There's your proof. 671 is the average. I think our lowest was like 330. Highest list price to sales price ratio was a hundred.
the average lowest list price. Sales price was 70% on the average. And then this is January 6th, which is today. The highest sold price was 5.3 million off to a mediocre start at 95 on the average, 95 cents on the dollar lowest. So price was 663 and 85%. List price to sales price ratio.
So there's a lot of deals to be had. I think we're gonna see in the next couple months. Things turn around. Highest list price to sales price ratio is 131 and we already saw that the highest one for sale is still 25 million.
Lowest for sale is 279,000. This is off in Gilroy, up in the mountains and we have 539. Homes for sale. On the average last year we had a thousand. We need to be at 2000, and we have 85 price reductions. These are all leftovers from last year, which is 15% just come down considerably.
But also, so has the actives have withdrawn or gone into sale or expired. So you have a number of actives. We did sell a lot of houses over the last seven days. We went 75 homes, went into contract, and in four weeks we'll be able to see what that turns out to be. But here we are.
I want to push this out real quick. Santa Clara County, single family home active versus price reductions, MLS listings. In May, we had, I think this is June. what is that? Yeah, about May 20th when we peaked. And then these are actives. You can see that, and then you can see the ratio sandwich up a little bit and sandwiched down, but it came drastically closer. So on the whole, we're seeing price reductions go away, but also those homes that didn't sell went off market.
So just keep that in mind. All right, that's it for now. Thanks for watching. I'm Vito with Abitano. I'll see you out there.
🔴 5 Cities Near San Jose | Moving to San Jose https://youtu.be/sDkdDq42vo8?t=46
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Vito Scarnecchia
Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad
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408-705-6817
Vitos@abitano.com
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🔴 The Five Biggest Turn-Offs For Homeowners https://youtube.com/shorts/lwknH5DCS5c
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Vito Scarnecchia
Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad
DRE#: 01407676
408-705-6817
Vitos@abitano.com
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If you are moving ANYWHERE in the world - Let me know! I know a LOT of AMAZING Agents!
🔴 Willow Glen's five most expensive homes https://youtu.be/3A_E2ck0ePg
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