This Week's Winners and Losers - 12 County Bay Area Real Estate Report





 


Housing Supply Gap Surpasses 4 Million Homes in 2025 as Construction Fails to Keep Pace With Demand
The Typical U.S. Homeowner Hangs Onto Their House for 12 Years. In Los Angeles, It’s 20 Years
PROBATE AND ESTATE SALES
Cupertino Home of the Week
Willow Glen Home of the Week
Luxury Home of the Week
How your Home will be Marketed
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Why Housing Is Expensive
 

You are wondering why housing costs so much. It could be inflation, or it could be the low rates that we had back in 2020. 2021. Could be a whole lot of different things. However, a lot of the reason was that we have a housing supply gap in the United States. We do not build enough houses, period. So let's get into it real quick and discuss.

There we go. All right. 

The Labor Supply Gap

I've mentioned this a few times, and it's just, it ebbs and flows, and the problem is that we don't have enough people to build houses. We don't have enough people in the trades to build houses. We can; we have plenty of land, not necessarily in Silicon Valley or the Bay Area, but across the United States.

We have a lot of land that we can put housing on. We just don't have enough people to build it. We have the investment, we have the money. We have people who are ready to buy land and entitle it and parcel it, and then sell it off to KB Homes and US Homes and all that. It's just. It's a fine balance of supply, and we have the demand, but we don't have the supply of labor in order to build these homes.

That's the biggest problem, and I don't think they identify that as a problem in this article. They just talk about the numbers, right? Where we have four thou, we're 4 million homes short right now, but it's not a problem that we haven't seen before. In 2020, we had the same problem, and in 2023, we had the same problem.

We don't have enough houses being built. The houses that get built get consumed. They get bought, and people live in them. Period. We don't have enough people to bill. 

Trades as a Career Path

So if you have a child who has graduated from college and is struggling to find a job, maybe work in a retail job, and they're just struggling, and they don't wanna go into the military.

The trades are a good option, especially considering the fact that you can get into an apprenticeship and then if your child gets a job in the major that they wanted, then they can opt out. But the trade is a great job. It's a great career, and you don't have to stay in the construction field.

You can go into the management part, or you can go into the sales part. There are all sorts of different things. There's a whole different world of it out there. Not giving you advice, just saying that, make this an option in your discussion with your kids, because you never know, right? Do you want them to be a Schleppy real estate guy?

Probably not. But I did do construction when I was a kid, and it gave me a sense of understanding of how to fix houses and how to repair houses and look out for what to look out for when houses are out there. So it's an actual advantage to me to do that. So anyway, something to think about. Talk to your kids about possible trades, electric, electrical, HVAC, those are all going to be the highest-paying jobs here.

Entry-level jobs in America. Once you top out as a four-year journeyman electrician or HVAC, you will make more than a standard four-year degree.  Person. A person with four years of accounting or general business education, when you top out, you might be able to make more, but there's also a huge, um, drop out of people in corporate America.

So just understand that. And if you're my age, a lot of people my age are discussing the frustrations they have with corporate America. So there's construction, not a perfect job, right? You're always outside, could be in the heat, could be in the cold, could be an ebb and flow, and you get laid off.

And that's pretty typical, but it's just something to think about. Okay?  





Homeowners Staying Put Longer
Typical US homeowner hangs onto their house for 12 years. I've been in mine for 20. Yeah, and back in the day, back in the eighties, it used to be five to seven years; now it's 12. And in Los Angeles it's 20. It's kind of crazy right now.

Right. Just something to consider. A lot more people are tending to stay in their houses until they pass on. They raise their children in that house. It means a lot to 'em. It's their home. They don't want to move. And when you have older people, they don't wanna move 'cause they know where everything is and it just is what it is.

Right. Not everybody, like my parents, has moved around. They're in Henderson right now, and that's just the way it is. They've moved around, but some parents just wanna stay in their house and not update it and take care of it. I have an aunt like that right now. 

California Taxes and Prop 13

California homeowners stay put the longest.

It's only because the cost of moving is so expensive. I mean, you're talking about eight to 10% after everything's said and done, 'cause everybody has their handout, the city, the county, the state, all that stuff. And then you have to pay capital gains if you made too much money. And it just makes sense for a lot of people to stay in their homes.

And with Proposition 13, it makes extra sense to do that. We're the only state that allows or has a Proposition 13, where your property values only go up 2% max every year. I think it's Texas and Florida, and maybe another state that has something where they homestead you after you turn 55 or 60 or something like that, and they freeze your property tax until you pass away or you sell that property.

But San or California is the only com state in the country that allows Proposition 13, which prevents your home value from spiking up when the house value spikes up. So it's actually a value add, right? And I was talking to one of the neighbors at my open house last week. We were talking about Proposition 1690.

It's a lot of stuff that you have to keep in your head so you understand what's what, your best advantage is. Maybe it's the smartest thing for your parents to stay in their house until they pass away, or at least one of 'em passes away, because you have capital gains tax that you have to deal with.

So a lot of reasons why this. This article makes a lot of sense. We tend to stay in our homes a lot longer in California because it just makes sense financially. And we do handle probate and estate sales for when your parents pass on. We help you get rid of old stuff. We help you segregate the stuff that means a lot to you.

Yeah, let me know if you have any questions about probate or estates or moving your parents into a, uh, an adult community. Okay. 






Cupertino House of the Week
Cupertino House of the Week. Hillcrest Road, not my listing. Almost 4 million bucks. Four bedrooms, two baths, 2100 square feet. Built in 1962, and it's right here. So if you know Cupertino at all, Deza is right here.

Right here. Monte Vista's like right here. Sorry. No, Monte Vista's right here. Yeah, and that's the answer right here. And Apple is all over here. Apple's all over here too, but the main campus, the spaceship, is right there, so you can hop on two 80 flying to work if you want, but this is a nice little valley right here, and there's a deep Cliff golf course.

And, uh, everything's cool. So there you go. And it's a really pretty house inside as well. Very well maintained. Let's get you back here.

Get outta this

there.

Yep. Really nice house. Very well maintained. I wouldn't say it's super updated. Looks like the kitchen was updated a while back, but it's a nice-looking house. Okay. 





Willow Glen Pick
And then, let's see, this is Willow Glen House of the week, I think that's Willow Glen. Yep. Willow Glen. House of the week. Riverside Drive, not my listing.

It's right here off of Co Ave. It's a little bit closer to two 80. Willow, Glen's all here. And this is Lincoln right here. It's the main drag. So it's a nice area. This area gets a little, can't tell you, can't tell you that it gets rough, but there you go. It's a four-bedroom, three-and-a-half-bath, $2.7 million, 2,600 square feet, built in 2010.

And the one thing I don't like about this picture is that this house right here is big. All I see is this. So I want to do a street view real quick, but let's take a look inside. It's nicely updated. The paint's a little older, but that's okay. There's nothing wrong with the beige. You can come in and make it your own, and there's a nice living area outside.

That's nice. Let's take a look here and see if we can get street view and see if that's a house. House. Yeah. So that's just a big backyard that you're staring at. So there. Nice. All right. 





Luxury Listing Spotlight
And then the luxury Home of the week is Seabury Road, only $24 million, six bedrooms, nine and a half baths, and 14,000 square feet built in 2009.

Not a big fan of this one on the inside, but it's a nice house on the inside. It's a French revival type of look. That means dark trim wood, dark wood, very dark, and contrasting colors. It's not really my style, but it's still a very beautiful house. Nice Tuscan look with the travertine thing, so you can see that it's a little dated.

It's been used, it's been used, and it's been well manic maintained. It's a nice house. Just, I'm not a fan of the dark wood. Trim for everything. That's the French revival feel that we're talking about. 




My Listing and Marketing Tools
All right, this is my listing, one and a half million dollars. This is a three-bedroom, two-bath. This is 5 2, 2 8 Fell Avenue, and it's 1,557 square feet.

And it could be a four-bedroom. So let me open up the floor plan real quick for you. It is the living room and dining room. This is how you get into the house right here. This is the front of the house, and this was four bedrooms at one time. This right here had a closet right here, so you can walk in and then go out this way and have the fourth bedroom right here if you wanna make it into a four-bedroom.

So there you go. And this is how we sell your house, too, right? So we do the drone, we do the 360, the Matterport, and we do that 2D floor plan. I don't know what it's doing. There you go. It's thinking. And this is what it looks like right here on the inside. So you can take a look inside. We had an open house this weekend.

It was really busy. Crazy busy. You can actually go outside. See? Look at that. That's nice.

So there you go. On top of that, you get statistics on the house. I was just looking at it.

So this website's really great because it breaks down all the basic, basic stuff about the house. So you can look and see where the school is, where it is on the map, talk about Blossom Valley, talk about the schools, BTA, and all that stuff. It also goes and tells you how much it would cost and the estimated home value for it, where it should be, and where it should sit compared to all the comparables.

And then on average, this is where we are based on the averages and the average home value in this area versus the actual home value rate here. And yep, there you go. And then,

Then you can go into comparables as well.

There you go. Those are some of the houses I sold. Okay. And then, yeah, the great thing about our program is we put you out on every aggregate website like Google, Fox, NPR, Hulu,u and the US Open. We're all over the place. And you get to see advertising.  Advertising analytics as well. So you get to see what your house, where your house has been hit, and how many times and how many people have seen the house, how many times the house has been looked at, and how many clicked on the Matterport and all the tours and stuff.

So it's a great little program for you to get extra exposure. 

Bay Area Sales Winners and Losers
And this is the 12-week or the 12 County Bay Area sales report, calling it winners and losers. Now, because we're, I want to compare and contrast the vast differences between counties, and like San Benito, right now is the big loser. Not that they're a loser, it's just that there's a lot of construction going on on Highway 56, I believe it is, where they're opening up lanes, and it's finally coming to a place.
And I think San Benito is a place we're going to see. A lot of growth 'cause Gilroy, Sam Martin, and Morgan Hill have kind of run their course. So just something to be aware of. Okay. And then the same thing here with the numbers here. Santa Clara is the winner. We have the highest volume in sales, the highest volume in gross revenue coming in, and the average sales price is always gonna be San Mateo, just happens to be where the VC money is.

So 2.7, almost $2.8 million for an average home in. S in San Mateo versus 2.4 in Santa Clara County. And then the uh, the median price is a lot less. 'cause a lot more lower cost. Homes sell more than higher-cost homes. And Solano is the lowest price, where it's 600,000. You can buy a house for $600,000 in Solano.

You can't do that in San Jose. You can probably find something like that close to that in Gilroy. That's pretty much it. And then the list price to sales price ratio. Napa and San Francisco are the winners and losers. And then listings here. To date, Santa Clara and San Benito are the winners and losers, and days on the market, it's Santa Clara and Napa.

So there you go. 

Wrap Up and Goodbye

All right. That's it for now. Thanks for watching on Vito with Abano. We'll see you out there.

 



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Vito Scarnecchia
Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad
DRE#: 01407676
408-705-6817
Vitos@abitano.com
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