🔴[LIVE] -$374,320 off average home sales NAR Reports
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Good morning, February 22nd. Can you believe how quickly this year's already going? We're like seven, eight weeks into February already. It's ridiculous. Boy, I hope this is working because I can't tell if the microphone's working or not. Lemme see. Yeah hopefully we'll see. So today we're doing 40 days on market, but we have a pretty large.
Just separation of values from what we saw last year and this year. And that's really the biggest news that I wanted to share. So let's get into it real quick. Right here. I don't know if you can see it or not. Let me see if I can expand that real quick. Look at that. $374,000. Last year, average sales price for the week in Santa Cla in San Jose was eight 1.8 million.
Today it's 1.4. Now that's just the last week. That's just seven days. So that's, that doesn't make the market right. But we are off 178 from last year. On average, these are just going back for the rest of the year. This is all of 2022 Or no, that's the week, that's the weekly average, right?
So if I took this, is last year's weekly averages, and I'll open that up so you can see it. See 118% over the list price was 1.5. The sales price was 1.8. Quite a difference than it is today. 1.4. 1.431. We're just 3% over list price. We've seen quite the contraction, right? We've seen it come down quite a bit from 1.7, 1.7 to 1.5 rounding numbers, right?
That doesn't mean we're in a crash. I don't think we're still seeing a crash. Reason being is because I keep seeing my. . My business is crazy busy and mostly because I'm working with buyers and they're seeing the markets coming down, and this is the time for them to do it. Now, I don't work with people that are investors.
I have investors that I work with, but for the most part, I work with people that are first time home buyers and they have little to no money for down payment. They have F H A or VA or U S D A, or they have 5% down instead of the standard 20% down, and they have this understanding. Yeah, I understand the market's gonna crash, but it's also gonna come back.
And right now there's less buyers in the market. However, last week we have 52 closes, which is 30% off of last year's closes of 76. So on the whole, we're still pretty down below, we're about 50%. Not everybody's saying the market's crashing. The market's crashing well in volume. It's true, right? Let's take a look at.
I think it's this one right here. No, it's not This one. I had something else I wanted to show you. Let's see if I can find it right here.
Existing home sales.
And nar, n a r, you screwed up. You should never have gotten rid of the.com. That's foolish. Anyway, we're down 0.7%, down 1% for January, 2023. Home. Home existing, home sales, right? That's down 1%. So is that making news? It's making news. Is the median home price across the United States going down from a high of 413.
I actually had it 1 4, 4 16, and then they adjusted it over time. It's down to 3 59. Yeah, it's coming down right. We're seeing prices contract all across the United States,
but here's my problem. All these places in dark, There's a housing shortage. There's a housing shortage all over here like Miami, New York area, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, the Hampshires. So that means prices are gonna stabilize and stay okay. They're gonna stay strong. Rates go up. When interest rates go up, it makes it less affordable.
So people have to do what they can do. And yeah, we're writing low ball offers. I'm writing low ball offers all the time. So prices are gonna contract. Sellers need to capitulate, and it's not gonna be like, oh, I'm gonna lose 50%. You have to do what the market's gonna do. I've set it for the last 6, 7, 8, 9 months.
Sellers set the list. Price buyers set the sole price, right? Our housing inventory is shrink. right down here we have 264, which is not where we need it to be. We need to be up in the 800 s to a thousand to make it a healthy market. But p buyers are being picky, right? These numbers back then was up to five, 600.
Now they're back down to 200. 90 days on market down to about a hundred REOs. Everybody's I'm gonna wait for the market to come back like 2008. This is a huge indicator, guys, I unless they have a massive shadow inventory of homes that they're not foreclosing on, there's only 30 ho res bank owned properties for sale in the Bay Area.
This is 10 counties, 11 counties. That's not a lot. That's nothing. We used to have that in every zip code. Same thing with all of California. All right, if you own a house, you wanna see what the valuation is. This is a evaluator, an automated valuation program. I pay for it. It's just like Zillow, but it's different.
It's just to get another search of that. And when you do that, once a year, I'm gonna do a physical one on your house. So I'll reach out to you and say, hey, are you interested in a, more detailed CMA or comparable market analysis on the value of your home just to show you out? Or I might just send it to you, but you might not have told me that you just redid a kitchen or painted the house or put new floor in or, new air conditioning or what have you.
So that's there for you if you want that. And I don't bug you, I don't call you say, Hey Savio, do you wanna buy or sell house? Never do that. This is what, this is really the topic of the conversation, right? Is the housing market broken across the United States? Yeah. We see the market kind of contracting, right?
The rates are too high for what we were used to. We were at zero money, zero cost of money for way too long. That should never have happened. That was a huge mistake done by feds or whoever it was that did it. And now, . We have low unemployment. The stock market's kind of going up and down right now, but that's cuz we had an I C B M doing something, I don't know, whatever.
But the market will come back. People forget about, we have very, short term memory on news and rates and what have you. When rates come back down, I believe that around March, April timeframe, we're gonna see rates go below 6% and the market will catch fire again and we're not gonna see.
Hundreds of units being sold in Santa Clara County or San Jose we're just not right. The volume's just not gonna be there for a while because people are holding back, trying to figure out, is this gonna market? Is this gonna crash? Maybe in 2024, we'll see the market go up, back up again. But we don't have enough home sellers moving.
People are staying where they are unless there's a divorce, a death, or they get relocated, they're not gonna move. For the most part, or they're empty nesting. I'm working with a couple that are doing that right now. All right.
So these numbers guys, they're all pretty basic. Nothing's really changed, right? We had 66 pendings in the last seven days, and that's San Jose. That's crazy, right? We're so we're seeing consumption. That's good. Last thing I want to talk about, kitchen cabinet colors. We talk about this all the time. and look muted tones.
Yesterday I was showing you the highs and lows and I was showing you houses with natural colors, natural color. I feel stand this tested time, right? When you remodel a house, this is what you're gonna get. This is what your designers are gonna show you, and they're pretty, for the most kind part, right? I'm not gonna go through all.
If you want to look snappy, that's great, but understand, this needs to be paintable, right? You're gonna be painting these every couple years. I don't think that these colors are gonna stand the test of time, like it says here. I think it's gonna be like olive drab and burnt orange and golden yellow, whatever that was back in the seventies.
I think that's what we're gonna see these as and people, what people are gonna do, they're gonna sand them down and paint it back to. Or they're gonna sand it and try to go back to natural, depending on the day and the week. All right. That's it.
Yeah. If you wanna see a list of REOs bank owned properties, let me know. Next week we're gonna be doing the days to sell over time. That's all at Santa Clara County. And then Santa Clara County absorption rate, which again is 20 days on market to sell on average. Here it's, where is it? Dates on market 25.
So San Jose's a little bit slower than the county, right? But we'll see what it is next week, and then it takes 1.4 months to sell what we have currently. So let's see that goes on. Hope this helps.
I'm Vito Scar with the AANA group. Have a great Wednesday. We'll see you out there. a