🚨 🔴🎧 Where Did People Move In 2023 | institutional homebuyers | State of the Market



 





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🚨 🔴🎧 Where Did People Move In 2023 | institutional homebuyers | State of the Market S



Where did people move to in 2023?  Institutional buyers are buying homes, but it's not what you expect and the state of the market. Let's get moving.

All right, real quick.  

Migration Patterns Study: Atlas Van Lines


Atlas Van Lines Migration Patterns Study. Now this is just their numbers, right? Just to qualify, it's just their numbers. It's not the census. It's not MLS. It's not NAR. This is from Atlas Van Lines ACE relocation systems. Now, I did reload. We're going to look at this real quick but stay tuned. 

This is it's fairly important.

It's not the last couple of years, California got hit pretty bad, but now it's on part and we'll go into that. 

Top Inbound and Outbound States in 2023
So 2023 top bound, top inbound States, Maine, North Carolina, New Hampshire,  Montana, Washington, Arkansas,  Florida, New Mexico, Washington, DC. It's totally not what you think, right? Everybody's saying, Oh Florida, but you know what?

It's the seventh most popular place. And we're going to go into that in a minute.  Outbound states. Look, there's no California. It seems like California is balanced out. So Illinois, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Minnesota,  Indiana  Oregon,  Iowa, Mississippi, New York, and Ohio. Those are the outbound states.

Migration Patterns Visualized


Here's a picture of the migration pattern. Red is outbound. Blue is inbound and gray is balanced.

Kind of does tell a story, but look, there's.  New Hampshire, Maine, Nova Scotia.


International Migration Patterns


And then top international inbound countries, inbound Japan,  outbound Japan,  something's wrong there. South Korea, Germany, United Kingdom,  Bahrain, Australia, Canada, Kuwait, India, and Jordan. The top international outbound countries, are Japan, and South Korea. It doesn't make sense, but I tell you what  Kuwait, Germany, Saudi Arabia, and Puerto Rico, but that's not international in Puerto Rico,  okay. So let's take a quick look here.  Here's that picture again with all the top blue States there. All the top northern states seem like people are moving out of them.  Manitoba, my home province, is balanced. California is balanced as well. People like to move into Florida, Georgia, Arkansas, Texas, New Mexico, and North Carolina, but also Montana, Big Sky,  uh, and Washington. 

And all these words.  That's Newfoundland, I think. No, that's Newfoundland.  

State-by-State Migration Analysis


Okay, so let's take a quick look here at California.  The last two years have been rather balanced.  21 and 20, 20. People moved out, but for the most part, it's been balanced.  Now, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa. They're all States where people are moving away from  Alabama.

Everybody seems to be wanting to go to Alabama.  I have a stepbrother who lives there in Idaho. I get that  Louisiana.  Deplorable state,  Minnesota.

And no matter your politics, this is, these are just pure numbers, right? Again, don't forget, this is what this company is reporting.  Seems like everybody wanted to get out of Manitoba simply because it was bloody cold there.

So there you go.  What are your thoughts?

Oh yeah.  No, there's a link inside my blog to watch this. These

Fun Segment: Viewer Submitted Pictures #rewtf


RDWTFs that I post on Facebook every day. People. Send them to me. These are not my pictures. I enjoy watching them and the comments. And I love the fact that people like to send me some of these pictures. I think it's a fantastic way to keep people reminded that I'm in real estate, but it's also fun and it's enjoyable to see people come up with some imaginative, weird, different thing.

Yeah, there you go. Okay.  Like this OSHA violation right here. It's crazy. It's just fun to watch. So take the time to watch it quick,  real quick.  

Home Ownership and Title Check


Home Ownership and Title Check


If you're suspecting, if you have a little spidey sense, a little raised hair on the back of your head, thinking that you might have to take a look at your title, make sure that you still own it. 
Let me know.  Guys, take a look at this, please.  Home prices are up. You're okay. We're going to talk about this tomorrow.  Teaser.  

Institutional Homebuyers: A Closer Look


This chart illustrates institutional homebuyers are currently the most active. The reason why I'm bringing this up is mostly because  I want people to understand that it's not as bad as what the news and the press report.

Now, a couple days ago, maybe last week, I reported that  There's a  legislature being pushed through Congress to halt or disallow institutional buyers from purchasing property, right? And some of the reports were upwards of 44%. Now it says last week, former MMA fighter, Jake Shield tweeted out that 44 percent of single-family home purchases in the year were made by private equity firms.
Neither are those professional outlets actually cited 44%. Figure those numbers are not as crazy as you think. It might be 44 percent in one metropolitan area,  but I don't know. It's not.  So just make sure you understand that. Now you take a look at this and progress residential by far is the biggest culprit of the top 21.

And to be an institutional investor, you have to have at least a thousand single-family homes.  Right now,  the reason why I'm telling you this is twofold.  I'm not here to give you an opinion. I'm here to spout facts. I'm just giving you facts of things that I find that are interesting, and that revolve around living in Silicon Valley and real estate, mostly because I want this data to be presented to you in a neutral light as media should be, as news should be reported. 

I don't have. I do have opinions on things, but I'm never going to let you know one way or another. And I will tell you which way an article leans if it does make sense. If it's highly politicized, I probably won't ever send it to you or show it to you simply because I think it's heated. It's not factual where it has numbers like this, where it has numbers like this. 

State of the Market Snapshot: December 2023

MARKET SNAPSHOT


All right, let's take a look at the state of the market snapshot for 20, December 12, 2023,  we have 137, 40 days on the market. We have  of those 109 have been on the market 101 days, but that's also Santa Clara The 10 state, counties that we look at we have 67
67 bank-owned properties. That's 10 counties six and a half houses per county Which is not a lot. REOs all of California are 168 and that's not every MLS It's every MLS that I have access to San Jose We have  184 homes on the market right now. That's a huge drop from 212. It's mostly because we're going into Christmas week and nobody's going to go shot home shopping because they're all busy doing last minute,  uh, get buying for their family. 
The actual MLS video is 158. I don't know why there's a disparity, but that's because our MLS is more accurate than a realtor. com Zillow, what have you.  So last week we had a whopping 43, the average year-to-date is 61 closes per week.  Now this is the last week uh, this is the second to last week's reporting.

Next week we'll have the final numbers and I'll show you something in a minute. So just take, just make sure you hang on a second because I have some charts I want to show you to help visualize this.  Average list price. 1. 5 average sales price 1. 527. So it's going up by 102.  43 percent on average and 2. 8 years to date. 

Last year we were 106 percent year to date.  Our highest this week I showed you yesterday is 136. 6 percent and our lowest was 78 percent that one's the other one, the actual lowest from yesterday's report was dropped off because I don't know why.  100% 55%, 56 percent of those 73 closes 43 closes that we had were over our list price. 

And if you ask nicely.  Oh, geez.  If you ask,

if you ask nicely, I'll show you where it is. Last year's days on the market. We're 22. This year's 16. On average, we're hovering at about 20 pending were 54. This price decrease cumulative is 44  back on the market. It's 20 cancellations.

All right. That's it. 

Conclusion 


Today we talked about where people are moving to home institutional home buyers and the market. I want to show you something else, but I can't, it's blocked up. So I'll be sending out detailed charts and we'll talk about it tomorrow. See you tomorrow. Thanks. Bye. Bye.


















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Vito Scarnecchia

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