DON'T TAKE MY WORD FOR IT - Sellers are struggling to listen to the market
DON'T TAKE MY WORD FOR IT - Sellers are struggling to listen to the market
Homebuyers Have Been Retreating, and Now Sellers Are Too
Mortgage Rates this week
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What you get for $2MM in Santa Clara County
AIDA: Attract, Interest, Desire, Action
What you get for $1MM in SILICON VALLEY
Inventory And Supply Charts
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DON'T TAKE MY WORD FOR IT - Sellers are struggling to listen to the market.
Sellers are struggling. It's a phenomenon, and it's not exclusive to our market. Our market hasn't been, and it never has been, unique because we've always had low inventory and high demand, even though we've seen the market contract over the summer. We're going to see things happen over the next couple of weeks, and let me show you what's going on.
Market Trends and Insights from Ryan Lundquist
This article right here is from my muse, Ryan Lundquist. If you watch what I do, this guy talks about all these different charts and different things in the Sacramento area. He's an appraiser, and he gives us good data and good ideas for us to present how the housing market is in a very cool visual form, which is his charts, and we'll go into that in a minute.
Sellers have to realize that I'm getting top dollar and no concessions to the buyer. And that was the last couple of years, right?
Homebuyers Have Been Retreating, and Now Sellers Are Too
Shifting Market Dynamics: From Seller's to Buyer's Market
That was 2021, 2022, and then rates went up, and now buyers are just sitting on the fence until they get what they want.
It's been decades since it's been a seller's market, and now we're seeing markets across the country turn into buyer's markets.
We're not technically in a buyer's market right now. We're in a balanced market, and the reason why I'm saying that is because there are still buyers out there. We're still selling about 150 to 200 homes every week in Santa Clara County. And it's based on the inventory, the demand is hindered because of the rates.
The Role of MLS and Data Access
He talks about what's going on in Metro List, which is the Northern California MLS, mostly in the Sacramento region, but it goes down to a couple of different counties in the central Valley area. While I have access to it, it doesn't really pull the same kind of data.
I use MLS listings.com, which is in Sunnyvale, and it's sponsored by a bunch of. Very rich, well-to-do brokerages, and so we're stuck having to use that. It's not the best. It still feels like they're back in the 1980s with their entry. For the format, the way it's presented. But anyway, going back to this, sellers are playing hardball over $9,000. I don't have access to the concessions or to how much those concessions are.
I just don't have access to that. There's no way for me to scrape that data from my subscription to MLS listings.
Seller Ego and Market Realities
Here's the thing: the number one reason why homes don't sell is seller ego. We want to make a commission. Absolutely. There are two different types of agents out there: ones with commission breadth and ones that know that they have to do the right thing for the seller. And when you have a seller who's demanding that his house is worth.
X amount of money, and it's not because the market's contracted, then you're dealing with a non-sale, and we've had a lot of homes not sell or sit on the market for 30 to 90 days or longer. There are houses out here in the Bay Area that have been on the market for over a year because the seller still thinks that the house is worth X, whatever that number is.
Giving concessions is one thing, but matching the market is the most important thing based on the condition of the house, the location, recent comps, which is the market conditions, right? The market will tell you what your house is worth. If you think your house is worth what it was six months ago, you're wrong, period.
Hate to tell you that, but you're gonna waste your time. You're gonna think your agent's an idiot because your house isn't selling. Based on the condition of the house, the location, and the market conditions. Done more concessions at a lower price. So lower-priced homes, like the east side of San Jose, where you see million-dollar homes versus $2 million homes, you're gonna see more concessions.
The reason is that those are first-time buyers, and they need those concessions, or those were rentals, and now the owner is escaping that house. Maybe he fixed up a couple of things, but still, things need to be fixed u,p and the buyer's asking for concessions to do those repairs.
It doesn't necessarily include the commission. The buyer side commission, if you remember, the NAR got sued. We're told that we can't include buyer commission co-op anymore 'cause we had to separate the two, which is still confusing to me, but it is what it is.
Concessions and Market Slowdown
We are going to see more concessions. The market's gonna continue to slow down, even though rates have come down, not considerably, but they've come down. We're going to see more concessions in the second half of 2025. That means what? Right where we are right now. On September 11th, the housing market is going to continue to stay slow, mostly because rates are high.
It's not because of the lack of inventory. Sellers think they're still in the driver's seat. Buyers are really the backseat driver, saying, Now, if you want this house sold, this is my offer, take it or leave it. Expect more concessions, period.
And this is again, Sacramento County. You're seeing concessions go high. Now, when rates go down, concessions go away, right? This is when we had the historically low two-and-a-half percent mortgage interest rates. Since then, rates went up to 7% and it started. Going into if you want this house sold, you need to listen to the buyer's appraisers to help bring this change to the MLS.
Monthly prices in the Sacramento region. The average sales price is 20 per square foot in the Sacramento area. We're still not seeing a massive climate inventory. We did see it come in, but not where we needed it to be.
We needed it to be at about 2000 homes for sale in Santa Clara County, or a thousand homes for sale in San Jose. We're just not seeing that. Mostly because people who bought their house two and a half percent. They're not gonna move at six or 7%. They're just not. Why would you double or triple your mortgage payment so you can move into a house with one more bedroom?
Sacramento area is completely different here. Homes sold above and below the original listing price. It's important for us to understand that our landing and in Santa Clara County houses on average are selling 5% more than the original list price if it's priced correctly based on the location, the condition of the property, and the market.
Current Housing Prices and Examples
Mortgage rates have dropped to six and a quarter. Hasn't been like that for a while now. Since September 2024. Maybe this is a good time for you to jump into the market.
What you get for $2MM in Santa Clara County
If you took a look at the median price of a house in Santa Clara County $2 million, 30-year fixed, $400,000 with excellent credit. You're looking at 5.821 with three-quarters of a point. HSBC is offering 6.28, which isn't that great. That's no point. So again, I think you can get it down to What do you get for $2 million in Santa Clara County? This is Cashmere Court, not my listing. $2 million, three bedroom, two bath, 1500 square feet, built in 1969, and they really haven't done much to it. If you want to know where it is, it's right here.
Okay, and this is a flat-roof home. Let's take a look inside, it's just the design of this two-story looks like. The second story is a loft of some sort. Taking advantage of the vaulted ceilings. It looks like that was probably an afterthought.
Looking at that stairwell right across the way from that window you have? Yeah. And there's A-R-E-W-T-F right there. Bash your head on the stairwell going into and out of the kitchen. Sure. Why not? Makes a lot of sense to me.
Okay. I can't get past that run that just doesn't do anything for me. All for the purpose of having a loft. And a closet. I think they messed up with that loft, 'cause that doesn't do anything for me. And the backyard needs a little bit of work. Needs some updating. They have some old clay pavers.
I had that in my house when I first moved here. That's air conditioning. That's good. Let's take a quick look at the location again. This wall is scaring me. I think it's back to school, maybe. Oh, it's back into Yukon Drive, which is a busy street. That's why. All right, that's what you get for $2 million in Santa Clara County.
What you get for $1MM in SILICON VALLEY
What do you get for a million dollars in San Jose, Santa Clara, Silicon Valley, Aida Avenue, again, not my listing. $1 million, four bedroom, two bath, 1100 square feet, built in 1960, and it is Meadow Fair, right off of King Street, right here. Let's take a quick look inside. This is a flip that just looks and smells like a flip.
Let's take a look. Bigger pictures here. There you go.
Brand new everything. At least they don't have that back-end thing, but what they could have done is put that Backsplash all the way through; it kind of looks weird that way to me. Stands out. It's what happens when you have multiple contractors and a designer who doesn't really know what's going on. Look at this closet. It should have been cut down. And the backyard. You can tell it's a total flipper. All they do is fix the inside. They don't touch the outside. The landscaping needs to be cleaned up. They could have put some lawn in there, scraped this thing out, put some grass seed and started watering, gotten rid of all these overgrown trees, and yeah, there you go.
That's what you get for a million dollars, though.
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Buyer's Checklist and Inventory Overview
This episode is brought to you by the buyer's checklist. If you're thinking about going on a home shopping trip, download this. This checklist allows you to look at every nook and cranny, and when you look at four or five houses, everything kind of gets jumbled together.
This helps you identify four or five soups and allows you to tell which one you like and which one you don't like. Which one has dual-pane windows, which ones have air conditioning, that kind of stuff, so you can take a look and make a better choice.
Still, nothing's going on. We're still below a six-month supply in Santa Clara County. For the most part, Napa is the only one that's the outlier, but that's been an outlier for a long time. Santa Clara County, we're seeing very low numbers of inventory and months of inventory. Same thing here. Santa Clara cities.
So all these cities right here, and this was San Martin for a bit, but then it popped back down. So that was the outlier, but there are only three or four houses for sale in San Martin at any given time. It's still a seller's market, but buyers are being wary.
They're taking their time; they're deciding on which house they're going to buy. Versus 2021, when rates are 2.5%. People were buying what they could, whatever they could get into, whether it was the perfect house or not. And that's a big difference from four years ago. Yes, there's been an increase in equity.
Houses have gotten more expensive over the last four years. We're seeing a slight contraction. However, buyers are taking their time. If I'm going to buy a house, it's going to be the house that I want. I either want a turnkey, a fixer. I either want a four-bedroom or a three-bedroom. I either want a pool or no pool.
I want a house that's been taken care of, maintained. And I'll tell you right now, a majority of the buyers right now that are coming in, they're being picky 'cause they want the bedroom count that they want. Pool or not, they want a fixed-up house. A house that has been maintained, not flipped so much, but they'll take a flipped house because it makes 'em feel like it's all done.
But they know. They know what that house is worth because they've been to 15, 20, 30 houses, and they're comparing your house to every other house that's on the market right now.
And if it's not up to snuff based on what the value is, they're not gonna put an offer on it. Thanks for watching. Vito with Ano, have a great weekend. We'll see you out there.
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🔴 Video Living in San Jose in the No. 4 spot. in the US https://youtu.be/hxw5k739OKU?t=521
Vito Scarnecchia
Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad
DRE#: 01407676
408-705-6817
Vito@abitano.com
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