U.S. Housing Costs Could Return to ‘Normal’ by 2030. 🦅 🌎 ⚓️ ... . -- .--. . .-. ..-. ..
Mountain View home of the week
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Good morning housing market could return by 2030. Says this article on reality times. Lemme open this up so you can see it. Okay. This could happen if home price growth continues on its current trajectory, and mortgage rates drop moderately to five and a half per se. Now look, I've been telling you this for three years, since 2022, when rates shot up. We need to be at about five and a half to 6%, right?
That's our parody for buyers to be happy about buying houses. Again. Right now, buyers are being very persnickety and they know that sellers have challenges. People who run everyday lives that are W2 employees that make a hundred, $300,000 a year in Santa Clara County, they could still afford a house, but it has to be below the median price.
That means their struggle day to run a check, and they live paycheck to paycheck and all that other stuff. You can still afford a house. You're not gonna get the golden goose, the beautiful mansion on the hill. But if you want that, then you have to start a company and become super successful and have hundreds of thousands of employees and be on the Dow Jones.
But look if home price growth continues on its current trajectory. Here's the problem we have. We're not building enough houses for the population growth. We haven't since the 1980s. We did a little bit in the eighties, but in the nineties, the two thousands, the 2000 tens. It's been about 30% of where the population growth is going.
Now, population growth is births versus deaths, right? But also people coming in and immigrating from other countries. We have a huge. Burden of housing. We need more houses. So what people do is, , if you're in the lower echelons, you're living 3, 4, 5 families to a household. Does it suck? Yeah, but you know what, that's what we did 250 years ago when people were immigrating from Europe to the us and they lived in New York and they had these little 800, 500 square foot.
Apartments. They'd have three or four families in there until they could afford to explore and afford to buy another house and move out. It was just the way it is. My four immigration, I'm Legalized immigration. Absolutely. I'm an immigrant. I came from Canada. I immigrated. I naturalized October 3rd, 1989.
I served in the military. I did everything. I did the American way, right? But anyway, our home price growth is going to always go up. Yes, there's artificial factors, the interest rates, the economy, world war, what have you, but our home price growth is going to continue to grow, which is why it's pertinent for you to get into a home and get economically locked in right now on that house.
Can you afford it? Go find a house you can afford. , I don't want to drive 40 minutes, so you'd rather rent. That's totally up to you. Anyway, I digress. Okay. This is a Redfin thing, so take it for what it's worth. , Redfin likes to do these articles, but I think the thing is grow at current rates 1.4 year over year.
That's bullshit. We're seeing prices fall in the Dallas Fort Worth and the Austin and the St.
Louis and the Middle America markets. We're seeing that happen, but here on the coast, we're seeing prices continue to go up. Why? Because it's where the jobs are. It's where the VC money is. It's where all the new tech is coming from. It's where all the innovation's happening, right? People live to work here in the Midwest.
People work to live. It's a different mindset, right? And look, San Francisco, Oakland, San Jose, the top of the top four. California is in the top three or three of the top four, right? The last three months have been tough on us, especially here in San Jose. On the west side, on the western cities of Santa Clara County, Sunnyvale Mountain View, Cupertino, Saratoga, Los Gatos they, people over there are making more than $300,000 a year. They can afford to buy a three to $7 million house.
And that's just how it is, right? As a matter of fact, we're gonna go into Cupertino House of the Week and Mountain View House of the Week. So yeah, here's the thing. Everything will always come back unless we get hit by that new meteor comment I three atlas. It could happen, but we're gonna be on the other side of the sun when it comes through our solar system.
So, things can happen, right? You can just never know. Nevada is being hit with ransomware right now. All sorts of stuff can happen. But assuming everything stays normal, even if we do get hit by a meteor or World War III or an economic shutdown, it'll come back. We will come back.
we might not be the world economic superpower. Could be Russia, it could be China, it could be freaking Capmandu. Who cares? It doesn't matter. What you have now will come back eventually. So don't panic. Don't freak out. Just know that it's going to happen Wednesday. Distressed home of the week.
This is Dwayne Avenue, not my listing. 1.688. This is a bank owned property. They took it back. I sold a house in this area a few years ago and nice area. Four bedroom, three and a half bath, 1800 square feet building 2011, and it's right off of 1 0 1 in Lawrence Expressway.
Right there, it's a townhouse and you're right on a busy street, so that's a negative. But let's take a look inside real quick. Thank you for putting a floor plan on. The listing I mean, it helps the buyers, right? It helps people visualize what that house is really going to look like. So when they come into the house, they have to go up into the second floor.
you come into the second floor, which is a dining, kitchen, living area, and then you go upstairs to the sleeping and there's a fourth bedroom downstairs next to the garage, which is the standard multi-tier, high density floor plans that you're seeing today.
I have one coming up in Hayward that's over the that. So two car garage, which is nice. It's better than this one right here, which you're just stacked into three container boxes. This one's a little wider. So there you go. That's your distressed home of the week, which is crazy because a townhouse is $1.7 million, but you're living in Sunnyvale, so that's your plus or minus, right?
You can spend that same kind of money down here in Blossom Valley for a single family home, and You get to redo your kitchen. 'cause you buy a house outside of an HOA, this Cupertino house of the week. Is this right? Yeah. This is Cupertino House of the week, and the reason why I picked it is 'cause it's right close to the spaceship.
Remember where I talk about? Location? Location. This is a beautiful house, granted built in 2010, $2.4 million, four bedroom, three bath, 1700 square feet. But location guys, you are right on the freeway. I don't know how to explain that to you. You're backing into the freeway for $2.4 million. I'm gonna say no just for that, but let's take a look inside, just because dark kitchen, again, I like the granite.
The finish is a little dark. I would've lightened it up a little bit just 'cause it looks dark. But boy, that looks messy. Put that away. Put it away.
You're not ready to move. I can tell right now you're not ready to move. You're just like, sure, if I can get the right price, I'll sell it. No problem. And the agent took, they didn't even put a floor plan, so there you go. this one's not really gonna sell. This one's gonna be on market for a while.
Mountain View home of the week
We will see Mountain View home of the week. This one is right next to Castro, which is downtown the main street USA $1.9 million. Two bedroom, two and a half bath, 1200 square feet built in 1995. Hot and street. Oh, they did do a floor plan. Let's take a look real quick.
And I gotta tell you that putting your floor plan at the bottom doesn't really help because if you put 50 pictures, 90% of the buyers that are looking online are not gonna be looking. At your floor plan, put the floor plan up front. Put the front of the house, the door, the entryway, or a nice marquee picture, the thing that you love the most about the house.
And then the map, the floor plan of the house, right? So there you go. Let's take a quick look at it and then we'll come back to it. So this is a two bedroom open to below. The foyer is basically just a walk-in a living room, kitchen, dining room. There's a small attachment to your garage, there's your driveway, and for $2 million you get a patio.
It's awesome. But A lot of people don't wanna mow their lawn and have their dog, love their backyard. They just want to go out there and do their business and then be done with it. So there you go. what caught my eye about this though, is the look and feel.
This looks like an old timing, 19 early, 19 type house, but it's brand. new. I like it. I like the look and feel of it. It looks rich, Novo rich. it feels comfortable. And if you're working 20 hours a day, six days a week at Google, Facebook, or LinkedIn or wherever, the last thing you want to do is come home and do yard work or work on your house.
This is a perfect example for you. You're five minutes away from work. You are right here in Mountain View. You can walk, grab some dinner, walk back, walk over there, meet some friends, get drunk, stumble back, whatever you want. Or you can just walk over to the train station and catch your train to wherever you might want to go.
So there you go. Different lifestyle, different mindset. $1.2 million for a two bedroom townhouse. Let me know if you are interested in looking at it. Okay, so 40 days on market, nothing's great.
The number went up, but now it's coming down. We expected that we're back in September. September is your second season. It's not as big as the first selling season, March, April, may, but September is the start of September, October, November where people get a second breath of a small selling season because people come back from summer vacation, their kids are back in school, and now they're thinking, let's go move.
Or they empty nest and they want a smaller house or a bigger house and they want to get the hell outta California or whatever. So 40 days on market, that number is gonna come down. Same with the 90 days on market. And bank owners are still nominal. I don't see a lot of 'em coming on market. 60, 70, 80. It's not that big of a number. And every time around the middle of the month, that number pops and it comes back down. And for sale in San Jose, we have 532. We need to be about a thousand. We got pretty close in March, April, may. We've got 700, 7 11, but we didn't get to it. Rates are coming down. We see it at 6.5%. You can buy it below six. You could be at 5.75, 5.99, bragging rights, comfortable affordability, that kind of stuff. So you can still do it. And buyers are still buying houses. Not the huge clip that we were back in 20 21, 20 22, but we're still selling houses every week.
Same thing in Santa Clara, we're at a thousand, we should be at about 2000. And in March, April, may we're at 1400, 14 44. That was the peak. May 14, 44, and then things went back down and that's kind of the normal, that's what we're typically going to see until rates come down drastically. Main reason is because when rates were at 2.5%, a lot of people locked in and said, I'm never walking away from this house.
Even though it's not my perfect house, it's not my forever house. Here we are. Same thing with Santa Clara. I mean San Jose, right? Seven 11. That was the peak of the market March, April, may, when people go on vacation, there's less buyers, there's less demand.
You can't command that type of price. So there you go. That's it for now. Thanks for watching. I'm Beto with Abano. We'll see you out there.
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