Monday Bay Area Trends | Latest news & My opinion - I don't think we're going to crash
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Welcome, happy Monday, January 30th, the last Monday of January 2023. Did you know that at the end of this year, we will see 12 31 23? If you look at it, it's 1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3, I know I'm throwing my geek out. I apologize. Let me share my screen with you and get this thing going.
Today we're talking about We're going to get into the market. What I saw this weekend, I was crazy busy this weekend. I. I was looking at my microphone and I moved it back up to my, over my monitor. Apologize,. I and I apologized for it being so late. Typically I have it around nine o'clock, but my workout partner couldn't show up.
I started going to the gym and I ended up doing two hours. Winds up. I actually have to do a hike today around 5, 5 30. Did legs today, so it'll be a really tough day. I'm probably going to bed early, but this weekend was crazy. I went from nine o'clock till about 4, 4 30 showing houses up in the mountains.
Beautiful up there. Saw some really weird ones, but yeah. So let's take a look at the numbers here. This. A snapshot of the average prices for the entire Bay Area. When I say Bay Area, this is what it looks like. These are all the little counties that we're tracking right here. I don't do Santa Cruz, and I don't do Monterey, even though I do work in that area.
market trends
These numbers are simply for the. Nine or 10, 10 different counties of the Bay Area. So I wanted to have this up here as a visual so you can take a look. We get so myopic, San Jose, Santa Clara, blah, blah, blah. But did you know that San Mateo's the most expensive place to live? On Thursdays, I think, yeah.
Thursday, no. Thursdays, we talk about the sales price and what's going on in our county. This is a more 800-foot view of what our entire Bay Area is doing. So added these numbers here for you so you can see how the health of each county is doing. And if you look, Santa Clara County is just a little bit low, but last week we were a little bit high based on the average cost of a.
Single-family home? No, nothing else. Just single-family homes, not ps, not townhouses, not farms or ranches. Single-family homes. The average price of homes has gone down a little bit in San Mateo, but that's not a bad thing because that was pretty expensive. After all, Santa Clara is 2.1.
Marin County and San Francisco are next in line, and then Santa Clara, so we're the fourth most expensive county in the Bay Area. Just to put that into perspective, this is where all the money is. . And it's common for us to see homes sell still over the list price there. It's just a normal thing.
It's okay. That's a normal thing. We're seeing that quite often. We're seeing it happen and houses over there, they're not being hurt so much. I wanted to talk about whether is unemployment really a bad thing for us? I don't think it's a concern. I don't, yes, people will get laid off and I've heard it all over the place over the last couple of weeks.
I don't listen to the news. I dig in and do my own work. I don't believe in listening to the media because I believe that's mostly prop propaganda. Whatever side you vote for, you can do that. I don't care. But the news today is largely propaganda and a scare tactic machine so that you fall in line, and I have never believed in that.
I don't think we'll see a crash
The Bay Area has never listened to the media. You might have some people go, oh, I'm not going to buy a house now. I'll wait for the market to crash. I don't believe the market's going to crash. At least not here. We've seen the contraction, but I don't think we'll see a crash.
I don't think we'll see it go down 10, 15%. I don't think we'll see that. The volume of houses being sold is still pretty high up there. We'll go into that I think on Wednesday or Thursday, just to take a look and see what's going on. But the numbers are still healthy here. And let me see if I can find this real quick.
rates are around 5%!!!!
Let me bring this over so you can see it real quick. This is from Wells Fargo. Remember I was telling you 4.875. I know it's not two and a half, but those days are long gone. You can get how you can get loans. A jumbo 30 fixed at 5.125 with 0.625. That's almost a half. That's just a little bit over a half, a percentage point, or a half a p point towards your loan balance to drop it down to five points.
That's crazy guys. There's nothing, this does, those are normal rates. Those are the norm. Those are rates that have been that, that has been normal for pretty much the entire 2000 tens from 2010 to 2018, 2019, four and a half, four, four and a quarter was really awesome, but we were buying houses then. I know Vito, the house is, are so much more expensive.
People are making a lot more. , right? Oh, I'm fearing that I might lose my job. . If you're an engineer, you're in demand, right? If you're going, if you're working at Cisco, you can go to Google. If you go to Google, you can go to Apple, right? It doesn't matter. Those 10,000 job losses that are happening, people are aware of them, they're opting out, and a lot of time they get such a huge package that they can use that as a down payment for their next home.
they get six months to a year severance plus a bonus. Plus. So it's not like they're getting wounded and not everybody, right? Obviously, when you overhire, which is what happened when you overhire, you have to cut the fat and get rid of the non-performing assets, and I understand that, right?
That's the bottom 10%. You have that in any organization. It doesn't really matter. Typically an engineer. If you have a bachelor's degree as an engineer, a master's degree as an engineer, or a doctorate, you're in high demand. You can get a job tomorrow. You can call any of the 500 recruiters out there and land a job tomorrow.
So I understand that there's this big fear thing that the market's doing this and that eggs are in shortage and that the stock market might crash. It absolutely is a possibility. Here in Silicon Valley, in the Bay Area, I don't think we'll see a massive crash. I don't think that we'll see that it might happen in St.
Louis and Idaho and Las Vegas, where, there's no rule reason to be in Vegas unless you can commute telecommute or you can get on your Zoom meetings and work out your house. You can be anywhere. Austin in Las Vegas, and we talk about that on Thursdays, that the inventory wife, we talk, we look at the inventory, right?
So here's what you have to remember. Oh, where am I? Let me make sure I'm doing this right. I don't think we will see a crash. Gut that's a gut feeling- nothing else.
Here's why I had, I. I showed houses all Saturday. I had an open house and had somebody else cover it for me on Saturday. He had seven, eight people, sets of people come through of that. On Sunday, two or three of 'em came back Friday. We showed the house to a set of buyers. Another agent brought him in and they came back on Sunday.
There's a lot of interest out there. People are buying houses. People are buying houses. We just heard a story last weekend about a house in Dublin. One of our agents in the Compass office. He listed it at nine something, 999 or 9 89, whatever, under a million dollars. He had 59 offers. 59 offers. Do you know what it went for?
Let me get to this thing.
A house in Dublin, 9 95, whatever that number. 59 offers. That's way too many. So for 1.45
houses are selling. The Guys' houses are still selling. The volume has been cut down to about 50, or 60% depending on the day and the week.
But houses are selling. , right? Will you get 50 offers? Not if you have it overpriced and it's just not going to happen.
is your agent toxic?
I wanted to talk about this is your agent's toxicity.
If you're watching this and you know who you are, I ask, I'm talking about you,. If you throw out a lowball offer, Don't expect the seller to respond. Yeah. I wrote a lowball after this weekend. I warned the O, and the agent on the other side said, this is where we are. We're stretching it. I know it might be insulting, but I'm forewarning you.
I'm not going to play, take it or leave it when you come at me and throw down a lowball offer. And I tell you that I presented the offer.
and then you complain that you don't get the house. You don't get to play in play with the other reindeer in the reindeer games. When you're told, rewrite your offer. Rewrite your offer, I tell you that I have two other offers in hand, and then I will go with another offer. Right now. You're very welcome to Rewrite and I will present it.
And get into the game. But I told you when you are, when you write a lowball offer and you can't do it, you say take it or leave it, and you play hardball, you're going get played. And when you lose out, don't get butt hurt and act unprofessional and go around my back and talk to my broker.
I have everything in the world in writing showing that I did the right thing. and you're acting completely unprofessional. There are so many people in real estate right now. It gives us a bad name. There's a low barrier to entry. It's very easy to get your license. There's a high turnover because you have toxic I Basilic agents out there that are barely trained, they don't know what they're doing.
They go in, and they think they can play hardball. And sometimes you can win that way. But if you're working with a seasoned professional, understand that there's a process, we have to do it our way. And you might think you're in control, but not when I have a listing and I know how to work it.
So I'm sorry that you got your butt hurt. I'm sorry that you looked unprofessional.
If you're writing offers mo like 15, or 17 offers and you're not getting your offer accepted, there's a reason. It's either you are continuing to not listen to your agent when they tell you to write a higher offer or that agent is toxic, and that means that they're not working with the other agents on the other side.
They have a bad reputation or they're. Smarmy. And when you have a very regulated industry, but you have an organization like the National Association of Realtors and California Association of Realtors whose only intention is to build a huge population of agents, they're going to risk taking on realtors that are the bottom 10%
And that means that there are going to be agents that don't do the right. So not out to name names, believe me. That's just not how I run. But if you're going to be unprofessional,
I'll come right at you. Don't think I won't. All right, guys. Didn't wanna get too serious about that, but just make sure that if you're running with somebody and they're not doing the job you think you're, they're doing, then think. All right. I think we're going to see this market come back in March.
We're seeing the inventory come up. Buyers are definitely out there. If you're thinking about selling your house, now's the time to get it ready for March, April, or May. call 4 0 8 7 0 5 6 8 1 7. Let me see if I can pop that out there for you. Banner.
4 0 8 7 0 5 6 8 1 7. All right. I'm Vito Scarnecchia, with the Abitano Group, powered by Compass. We'll see you out there and maybe I'll see you at the hike today. Who knows? If you're interested, let me know.
Vito Scarnecchia
Realtor®, Broker, Veteran, Dad
DRE#: 01407676
Website: abitano.com
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