Are We in a Recession?

 
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Introduction: Are We in a Recession?
Are we in a recession? That's a great question because we just weren't, we're going to have to talk about that. We're also going to talk about unemployment jumping up and fictions are up and yeah, but still homes are selling. It's kind of crazy. We'll also talk about the Apple House of the Week, the Mountain View House of the Week, the Banco House of the Week, and 40 days on the market report.

Are we in a recession now? Some would say yes. Some would say, well, the government says we're not in a recession. My problem is, and it's not, I guess it's political, but it's not political because the government keeps moving the definition around as to what a recession is, soft landing, hard landing.

Some people are even calling saying that, we need a crash to happen. We need the money, the dollar to become complete. Irrelevant to crash the entire system. Now, is that the right thing to do? You know, I'm not an economist. I don't know. Honestly, does it make sense? When I think about how it goes, it really just defines what a recession is. But again, the government continues to redefine what a recession is. So I don't know. 

Unemployment and Economic Volatility
A lot of people I know have been unemployed for a long time. A year, six months, two years. They haven't worked here. People getting laid off Intel Dell just recently called off.

16, 17, 000 people. Amazon released a hundred thousand people mostly due to automation, but it's unemployment. So when you think about what is really happening we're redefining what a recession is, which further devalues the dollar, which makes your dollar worth less. So when you go to McDonald's to buy a Big Mac costs a lot more to buy a Big Mac.

Or a gallon of gas or milk or food for your family or housing. So I think we're in a very dynamic place right now. I know that the feds are pushing to slow the economy for a soft landing. if you looked at the stock market, over the last few days, I think it's telling that. We're in a very volatile time in our financial lives for a lot of people.

How long it's going to last. I don't know. We don't know what's going to happen with the election. A lot of things are being tilted up or propped up so that we can maintain the economy as we know it. So who knows what's going to happen?

I think depending on who becomes president. Really will define what the next four years are going to look like. I keep telling people it would be a good thing for the economy to crash because it would make it a lot more affordable for homebuyers to get into the house that they've been waiting to get into and not have to.
You pay 400, 000 over this price. We've been talking about this for the last few years now. I watched this guy on TikTok. His name is Peter St.  Ong, and he talks about all the stuff in the economy. So I get a lot of the feedback from him and I think it's a little sided to the right, the content.

 and I'm strictly down to the middle. Doesn't really matter to me. but what I do know is that he continues to talk about what's going on. That's wrong with our economy and it keeps my eye open. So I would suggest you watch this video along with a few others and get an idea of who he is and what he's trying to talk about from an open perspective, not from a political perspective.

I know he's very one-sided. Take all the information you can and digest it for yourself to be prepared for. The worst hoping that nothing happens, right? 

Eviction Crisis and Commercial Real Estate
Eviction filings are up 50 percent higher than they were pre-pandemic in some cities. And this article really goes into swan songs about,  people that are getting evicted and who can't afford it.

To live in an apartment or a one-bedroom place or what have you, because they're on social security, et cetera. Some people talk about being evicted because they're making like 900 bucks a month and their rent is a thousand bucks a month.

You understand that it's tough. There's tough all over and it's sad, but evictions are going to continue to happen. I hate to say, that this is a strong story for the collapse of commercial real estate. Segment of our GDP. It continues to get weaker and weaker. the last couple of weeks I've been pushing out videos and articles on commercial property being foreclosed on and how they're having trouble buying into this, where they're spending tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions of dollars on apartments and commercial property, hoping that They can increase the value and then ultimately increase the rents.

And that's not happening. It's just a showing that the market is in contraction. 

Housing Market Analysis
Again, are we in a recession? I don't know. I'm not an economist and I can't tell you, Is the housing market going to crash in 2024?

Some people say it's already crashed. Not in metropolitan areas, but in outlying areas, you're not going to see house prices collapse in metropolitan areas because more people are coming back to cities, metropolitan areas, the Bay area, St. Louis, Austin, All like New York, you look at San Francisco, you're seeing houses sell for 10 percent over list price.

So is the market going to crash? It's crashing in certain areas where it overwhelms the population. People decide to move out of cities because they can do Zoom work or work remotely Companies are saying, if you're going to work for us, you're going to come back and work in our office. And so there's a vacuum of people coming out from the country, from the beaches, from the mountains, and coming back into the cities and buying houses there.

And those houses that they bought. Are now losing value and that's kind of a normal thing. It's kind of like the pond. If you throw a rock in a pond, you see the, it's like the epicenter. It kind of goes out. And then as it comes back in, we're seeing a contract now, is it going to collapse? Who knows? Yeah, we don't know. We don't know, right? That's a crystal ball. I'm working with a bunch of buyers and sellers right now, and they're talking about, well, is the market going to, we should wait. Should we wait? If you wait and the market does collapse, guess what's going to happen. Everybody comes out of the woodwork, a fresh set of buyers, ready to join the masses of buying houses.
Again, investors are going to come out. Institutional investors are going to start sweeping up properties again, and it's going to make it a lot less effective. Affordable for people to continue to buy houses. So best time to sell or buy a house is when the market is starting to contract right here.

When there's less competition, when it's a false downswing, there's way more competition, which leads to higher prices. So keep in mind. Is it time to buy? It's always a good time to buy when you're ready to buy. Don't buy a house that's your primary residence for an investment.

Never think of it that way. A lot of people do. I think it's dangerous. 

Real Estate Listings: Apple and Mountain View
Homes for sale, near Apple. So this is Apple right here. Let me break over here. So you have a bigger screen. I want to compare and contrast two houses. And Lawrence Expressway is the border of Santa Clara and Sunnyvale.

This house is right here in Santa Clara city of Santa Clara. Even though it's very close, it's not really walking distance unless you want to walk across Lawrence. This house is listed for 2. Almost 1 million flat bedroom, three bath, 2000 square feet,

brand new on the market Capitola way. And then you look at this house, which is 200, 000 more. Let's take a look at it. Three bedrooms, one bath, 1100 square feet. But it's in Sunnyvale. So I don't see the value in this. I mean, obviously, this one's overpriced. You can take a look at it real quick. Three bedroom, one and a half bath, 1100 square feet.

Again, these are not my listings. So never claim that these are my listings, the backyard, older kitchen. Ooh, they put new flooring in and didn't bother staging it. And they're wondering why it's not selling. It's been on the market for 76 days because it's in its original condition. And for 200, 000 less, yes, it's a different city, but it's about the same distance to Apple, 200, 000 difference, five bedrooms, two baths, almost 2000 square feet, built 10 years newer.
And it's a little bit nicer. Again, not my listing staged, bright, airy white paint, right? Guys telling you bright and airy. This house is going to sell. It's going to get snapped up so quick. Mountain View, home of the week. Maybe I've talked about this one before, but 2. 35, six bedrooms, three baths overbuilt built in 1959 been on the market. 71 days. The original list price was 2. 7. It decreased by 430, to 000. What happens when you try to make the market, you sit and you wait, there's no value in this house.

There's nothing updated. There's nothing pretty about this house. The only thing they're bolstering is that it's got the square feet. So what happens is you listed high and sit in the market for a long time, and then you bite your arm off one inch at a time and it doesn't sell. Why? Because of math, the seller thinks it's worth X amount of money.

guess what? I hate to tell you this, but you're trying to make the market out of a house that needs a lot of work. So you're asking for a premium. And you still have to put work into it and it's overbuilt. So that house is going to sit on the market for a while. The reason why I picked it out is because it's really close to Castro, which is their downtown.
And it's a nice area. This is one I talked about last year. It's a bank-owned property. Cobalt Drive in Hollister. It's listed at 800, 000. It's just a few years old, with four bedrooms, three baths, and almost 2, 400 square feet. It's been on the market for 272 days.

The original list price was 883, 000. It's come down almost a hundred thousand dollars. still, nobody wants to buy it.

So yeah, and it's a small lot, 5, 100 square feet. Not a whole lot to look at. You don't know what you're buying because once you buy it, you still have to evict it or its owner.  

Market Trends and Final Thoughts
It's going up just a little bit on the 90-day side. Nothing to be concerned about. 51 houses have been on the market in Santa Clara County for over 51 days. Bank owns have gone up just Two or three, nothing to worry about. San Jose has 460 homes for sale. We need a thousand homes for sale in San Jose.

We need 2000 homes for sale in Santa Clara County for it to be a balanced market, which is why prices continue to go up. It's not to say that buyers aren't being picky. They're just buying houses that are priced right are looking right and are ready to sell or willing to sell. So there you go. All right. That's it for now. I'm Vito with Avatano. We'll see you out there.

Vito Scarnecchia Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad DRE#: 01407676 We’re Hiring! 408-705-6817 Vito@abitano.com Website: abitano.com https://www.onereal.com/vito-scarnecchia-1 update your home value: https://hmbt.co/bT7qRJ RELOCATION@ABITANO.COM FREE DESKTOP APPRAISAL https://www.propertyrate.com/agent/vitoscarnecchia If you are moving ANYWHERE in the world - Let me know! I know a LOT of AMAZING Agents! Book appointments here: https://calendly.com/abitano/15min Home Buyers Course YT YouTube.com/SanJoseLiving IG https://www.instagram.com/abitanogroup/ FB https://www.facebook.com/vito.scarnecchia/ LI https://www.linkedin.com/in/vito-scarnecchia/ Blog http://blog.abitano.com/ POD https://spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/oxdH1Hwfcvb Professional Photography by Kim E https://photosbykime.com / Local Real Estate Market and Home Value Report https://hmbt.co/bT7qRJ Financial Intelligence https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSc0R5pjHIAPguZ5GDEB-fTbGJXKpWK3coK9Khymv_GTWkMnyQ/viewform?usp=send_form https://www.onereal.com/vito-scarnecchia-1 Willow Glen's five most expensive homes https://youtu.be/3A_E2ck0ePg


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