🔴 Santa Clara House Sales 64% Below Average. Moving? Avoid Making These Mistakes 🚨 Inventory Watch
🔴 Santa Clara House Sales 64% Below Average. Moving? Avoid Making These Mistakes 🚨 Inventory Watch
Morning. Three things you need to know about living in Silicon Valley. SILA walks back its bullish 2024 home price forecast. California home sales volume downturn solidifies in September. Moving forward, avoid these mistakes. Okay, so the first thing I want to talk about is our little chart. Our chart is, I'm opening this up so you can see it, and I'm going to expand it.
It's dangerously low. It's him, I don't want to say historically low, but it's low. It's low enough that Everybody's seeing the pinch today. What you're seeing here is a graphical chart of year-to-date sales in Santa Clara County, including single-family homes, condominiums, and townhouses. And the numbers are here.
I tracked this. Every month. I haven't done it in a couple of months since August, but I track every month so that you can see, and this is the culmination of October. And in 2004, there's 22, 000. That was the high, the normal, the most normal market we had was in 2012. Average, I guess you can say.
And then at the end of the day, you're looking at
just casualty low 64%, 63. 4%. Of average and of last year were 26 percent below where we need to be. So we're 37 percent lower than the average. And the numbers are shocking. We haven't been below 10, 000 in the last 20 years. And now we're at 8, 700 and that number is all right here. Take those numbers right here and you drop them over here to 2023 and it counts to 8, 700 nice round number, but it's still pretty scary.
I think we will see this as a trend over the next couple of years. We're going to see a lot fewer homes, which means prices will stay where they are. As long as the rates stay where they are. If they go lower, then prices are going to go higher. And yes, we do have bank-owned properties. We have, this is all of 245 homes available.
Of course, it's going to go slow. We have 245 homes available. Now there are distressed sales like this one in Beverly Hills. It looks like it might be a short sale or something. I'm not sure. But if you look, there's just not a lot. 250 homes for sale that are distressed in all of California. That's nothing.
And the pickings here are pretty slim. This one is a condo in the villages. So you have to be 55 and over. There's two right here on La Porte in Biscayne, one downtown, one bedroom, one bath. That's a condo. Nobody wants a condo these days. So let's take a look at this bad boy. 800, 000 for this crackerjack.
Look at this thing.
Tiny rooms, three bedrooms, one bath, 900 square feet. It is 880 per square foot. Crazy. All right. Let's talk about,
we saw that yesterday.
Zillow walks back. It's a bullish 2024 price forecast.
We see a negative 7%. But that's in the entire Bay area. I think what we're seeing is this, or this number right here is the price ship between October 23 and October 24. I don't think we're going to see that not here. I don't think we're going to see it, we don't have enough inventory for the demand just is not diminishing where we're going to be.
Now, originally they said there was going to be a 7%, but now they're thinking we're going to go into a true recession. If anybody knows anything about recessions, we see prices go up or stagnate in recessions. See, they always go up. So for here, that was just our anomaly. That was real estate. And finance problems there.
So I don't think we're going to see Zillow, I don't think we're going to see a negative here in the Bay Area, especially Silicon Valley I think Silicon Valley is going to hold strong. We are seeing markets slow down But I think it's only because of the lack of inventory that's but just that's just me. Do I know the future?
No, can I tell the future? Absolutely not. That's just My guess
California home sales volume downturn solidifies in September Basically, all this is saying is exactly what I'm saying people still have the fear of missing out but they're still trying to buy into the house because They just don't want to rent anymore. If you can do it, they can do it, but I don't think I don't think we're going to have a spike in inventory.
So the problem is it's not that there's this lack of desire. There's not a lack of need. There's not a lack. There's a lack of money. Remember the median price, the median income in California was. 107, 000. A lot of Americans don't make, a huge amount of Americans don't make close to a hundred, maybe I think it's 70, 000 right now is the median income of the average American.
So a majority of people aren't doing it, but if you can do it yesterday, we talked about living in Silicon Valley. If you can move here, you're going to be paid a lot more money, but the cost of living here is a lot more expensive. That's why the prices are more expensive. Again, this episode is brought to you by Know A Vet.
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This is your life. You served. You deserve better. If you're having trouble with the VA, come here and take a look and we'll help you get through the whole process. And we don't really do anything. We put you in connection with the right people. All right. Find your dream home. Home theft is on the rise.
Moving. Are you moving? Thinking about moving? Have you moved in the past? Of course, you have. Here's the thing. If you're moving, if you're selling your house or you're thinking about buying a house, get ready, get in the mode, and start collecting stuff that you're not going to use in the next three to six months, period.
Start putting them in boxes, put them in a closet, put them in a storage unit, and put them wherever get ready to go. If you're selling your house, if your house looks anything like mine, let me show you my room. Look at all that back there, all that back there is clutter. I don't need to have all that there, but I live here.
That's where my camera is. I use my camera almost every day. I have video cameras. I have everything when I'm shooting videos of houses. Oh, by the way, yeah, we'll get to that in a second. Be careful. I did a video a long time ago. I want to say four years ago now. about crappy movers. Some people were, will promise you the moon charge you very little.
And then when it comes to showing up and actually doing the work, they're going to hold you hostage. Be very careful. This is a normal thing that people do. It's not a regulated business. These guys are fly by night. They pick up a truck and they come in and tell you, we'll move your house for 7, 000 all the way to Indiana.
This is a true story and then they don't show up the day they're supposed to show up, put everything it's a freakout, and then on top of that they come and show up on the next day and they say it's not going to be 7, 000 like we promised. It's going to be 15, 000 and then once you pack up the bags, pack up the house, put it in the truck, it's
expensive. I had a little issue there. Moving is expensive. I don't care what you look at it. It's going to cost you about 15 grand. And it's just because labor, insurance, maintenance, the cost of the truck and gas, it's just, that's what it is, right? You can go do it yourself, you can hire movers, you can hire students, you can do whatever it is, but still, it's going to cost you in some way, in some form.
So don't hire one of those things. And if you see yourself on an aggregate site where they say, we'll get you a bunch of quotes, don't do that. That's just such a crock of crap. Next thing you're going to have 20 calls every 10 minutes and it'll be like a nightmare messing up the quotes, right?
Yeah. They need to come take a look at your house. They need to tell you what the quote is. And I'll tell you straight up. There are three big franchises, United, American, blah, blah, blah, whatever. Call them the franchise movers. They're they'll be more expensive. I promise you they'll be more expensive than the fly-by-night guys, but they have a reputation and they're not going to screw you over Honestly, um, it's just, I know it sucks, but it is what it is.
The alternative is doing it yourself, right? Packing too much stuff. Again, pack for stuff that you won't need in six months and that three to six months because it will take that long failing to schedule your move well in advance. Don't do it the next day. Do it when you get your house on the market.
Get quotes, get comfortable, and schedule it out. They're very pliable. At least, who you're working with. And once you have a relationship and the contracts in place, you can say, Hey, I'm moving a week later. Is that okay? They'll shift stuff around the fly-by-night guys. There's one or two trucks and they're depending on it.
They're going to force you to move, right? Again, pack ahead of time, but guys, you live in your house. I get it. There's nothing wrong with living in your house and you can be a hoarder. You can be a messy teenager, just like my children. You can live where you have a purpose for every spot and every square inch of real estate on your shelves.
But you look at my closet, you look at everything. Not my, not like my bedroom is immaculate. It takes me five minutes to fold my clothes and put everything away. I know where everything is. But I also know where all my cameras are, too. So pack ahead of time, and store it away. Enough said. I'm done talking about that.
Inventory Watch
Let's talk about the inventory watch. Nothing's changing. Still short inventory. We already talked about this, right? We have alarmingly low. Inventory. We have alarmingly low sales. We have more agents leaving the market, and business today, which is actually a good thing. I tell you um, but it's because there's just not enough business to go around.
Now I have sold enough houses where I can live comfortably, right? I'm not trying to make a million dollars. I'm just trying to live a good life service my clients correctly and deliver an overabundance of service. I'm not a sales guy. I'm more of a marketer and a facilitator. And a Sherpa, but you look there's nothing really jumping out.
Like even Cape Coral just jumped over 6, 000, but they've been edging up towards that. There was a house in Cape Coral. I'm going to go back and look at Austin's going up to 3000 Atlanta, nowhere else. Can you, that thing's really going crazy. Numbers tend to stagnate during the winter. And by the way, we got rain yesterday or today, this morning.
Hallelujah. I'm happy about that.
Title Theft
I've only had one person take me up on this so far. And it's, that's scary. Somebody can come and take your title without knowing it. And there's not much you can do except to engage a lawyer. So if you watch this video, it's on my blog.
And it's everywhere. So take a look. Watch it and get it, make sure you find out what you're doing or that your house is still under your name, and do it for your parents too. All right. I'm Vito with Abitano. I hope you have a fantastic weekend. I am going to Sacramento for my kid's band competition. Santa Teresa High School band is having their last performance and the regional competition up in Sacatomato, Sacramento of all places.
All right. Have a fantastic weekend.
I'm Vito with Abitano. We'll see you out there.
Vito Scarnecchia
Realtor®, Broker, Veteran, Dad
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