Home price gains fade with inflation set to reheat

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Home price gains fade with inflation set to reheat
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Home price gains fade with inflation set to reheat.

Why Homes Aren’t Selling

Hey, here's the thing. Home prices... The home price gains have faded with the inflation set to reheat, right?

Like we had a little bump, we missed the target. If your house didn't sell, it's because it was overpriced for the value of what you were offering, and now we're s- waiting for the market to reset. And that means, well, we could see the, the um the inflation go down, which is probably not gonna happen, or rates go down, which means that w- inflation's gonna go up, or we can see something great about the Iran war or what have you.

But look, s- just understand there's a reason why you're stressing, and it's probably 'cause your house is overpriced. All right, there you go. Enough said on that. We can actually go into this. 

Inflation vs Price Growth

Inflation outpaced national home price growth, right? But it didn't, it didn't outpace ordinary income or income.

And right now we're seeing things slide back. We did the- see it pop up just a little bit when the rates went down below 6%, went down to 5.9%. And you know, I get it, but when we have a CPI of 2.4, and that's, this is in February, which, you know, everything takes time to figure out, it's a slow ship to turn around.

We're looking at TempCity Composite Index, which feeds into the national index recorded blah, blah, blah, 20- So everything's kind of saying, "Meh." It's kind of meh. Houses are still selling, but it's at what the buyers are looking to sell, right? 

Mortgage Rates Reality Check

Rates right now are 6.59. It could go down below five, 6%.

That would be awesome, right? Look, 5.99. That was in February 2023. And then rates went up a little bit. See February, there you go. It would have been great to be able to get on the market and sell then, but our selling season has been marked with rates over 6%. Unfortunately, that's just the way it is right now, and there's nothing you can do about it except for be patient, find the right person, and understand that there are, uh, incentives that you can offer.

April Inventory Snapshot

And here are April's inventory and days on or...

Inventory, and what's it called? Inventory and sales. And here is April's inventory and sales report. Nothing super crazy to think about outside of Napa and Marin, it's kind of slow to catch the wave. As a matter of fact, I think Marin-- Well, we'll go into the city, in the, in the city versions. But nothing here is crazy, right?

We're seeing our inventory kind of go up, but not to where we need it. Like, if you look at Santa Clara, we need to be at two thousand. This is the highest it's been since even before last year, which is good. But we're-- we need to see that trickle up. So in the next month, we need to see this number go down as well in order for our rates to really start hitting or the values really to start climbing again, if you're starting to think about selling.

Buyer Strategy Right Now

If you're thinking about buying, this is a great time. There's not a ton of competition. I'm telling you, this is a great time to buy. And don't go for the houses that are just on the market. Find the houses that have been on the market for a bit, and go in and negotiate with them. 

San Martin Inventory Spike

I wanted to show you, San Martin.

There you go. Twelve months of inventory. Look at that. Shot up again. But look, it did it last year too. So it's a normal thing, right? When you get too many houses for a small town, it's going to happen. So it happened here last year. What month was that? July of last year, right? The same thing happened.

Twelve houses were on the market. It took twelve months, but it's not because that's just... It takes less time. 

Resources and Sign Off

So if you want to look at this, the photos, the pictures are in my blog, and there you go. There's an open house link to all the open houses in Santa Clara County, so you can take a look. If you have any questions, give me a call.

I'm Vito with Abitano. Thanks for watching. We'll see you out there. Have a great weekend.

 

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Inventory vs Sales 5/7/2026