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Rates climb for fifth-straight week, pushed up by Iran war worries | This Week's Winners and Losers - 12 County Bay Area Real Estate Report
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Mortgage rates climb for the fifth straight week pushed by Iran war worries. It's not the only thing. I mean, look at the, look at the whole economy on the whole. The whole economy on the whole. It-- But seriously though, let's talk about this for half a second.
Canada Trip Perspective
I just came back from Canada. My uncle passed away at ninety-three.
Big win for him, I think. He was an amazing man. He raised an amazing man, my cousin, six weeks older than me, ten times smarter. We spent a lot of time talking about what's going on, and it's funny because from outside the US it's like a, circus when they look at the US politics and what's going on in the economy and all that, because it's really affected by everything.
And you know, it's nice to see a different point of view. And it's true, right?
Economic Crosscurrents
We had Spirits- Spirit Airline crashing out. We have over a hundred thousand people getting laid off in the tech sector. The automotive industry is not doing super well. We have the Iran war, and we're fighting in-inflation, and the Dow Jones is finally capitulating saying, "Uh, you know what?
It's not doing that great." So now we have Bitcoin going up over a hundred thousand, and that's great, right? So what's going on?
Will Rates Drop Soon
I, still think this is very political, and I think once... I think we're gonna see, uh, rates come down this month. I think... I, I'm not sure exactly when it comes, but right now we're at six point three to six point six, depending on where you are, for rates.
And that's enough to keep people off the market. And they're like, "I'm going to wait until the mar- the rate comes down." just makes sense. It went down below six percent in early March. I'm going to wait until that happens again. S- I, would, but what happens if it doesn't happen? I don't know. We'll see.
All right.
Mortgage Report Breakdown
Let's go into this real quick, see what they say. Uh, average US mortgage rates climbed again for the fifth week in a row. We're seeing this go up. We're at six point three percent. Uh, it's actually six point six, but, you know, because the average is coming in. So the- Zillow economist, mortgage shock fueled by bond market turmoil linked to the war in Iran could stall the spring housing market if the conf...
Sellers Feel The Squeeze
I mean, here's the problem, right? I have three listings going, and they're all going, "Hey, where the hell's my offers? Where's all my offers? Why is my house not selling?" you wanted this price. When a market contracts, people are willing to pay less for your house, and there's nothing really we can do to stop that except for wait for the market to change.
What's the way the market can change? What's a way the market can change? The market will change by lowering the rates, lowering inflation, adding more jobs, stopping the Iran war, stop playing the tariff game helping Spirit Airlines survive. By the way, I did sign up for Let's Buy Spirit Airline thing.
I, I made my pledge because why not? If I can be an owner of an airline, why not? It would be kind of fun. But here's the deal.
Politics And Market Reset
We knew this going into it. When the American public b- voted for Trump, we knew that this was going to be part of the issue. He had to change things up a lot to make a change, and a lot of people still think that's good.
It sucks for sellers right now, but you know what? It's been almost 30 years that sp- sellers have been spoiled. That's like two generations of people coming and going and buying houses and figuring it out. So it's kind of nice to see the market change up a little bit, right? Okay.
And then here's today's jumbo rate, which is 5.6...
5.9, and then the 30-year is 6.44, and obviously you can go down. We usually talk about that in on Friday, on Thursdays. Fitch says pair of Fed rate cuts still on the table, 2026. Says the US co- in a cooling labor market and slowing wage growth should lead the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in 2026.
Although the risk of fewer cuts this year is increasing and as inflation rises in response to the energy price shock, the report said the risk of oil prices remaining much higher for longer has increased. So on top of that, we're paying more for gas, right? Aggregate household mortgage exceeds 13 trillion, da, da, da, da.
See tariff and oil-related inflationary pressures may lead to... We already talked about that.
Okay, Cupertino House of, of the Week. This is Ann Arbor Court, not my listing. $3.375 million for a four bedroom, two and a half bath, 2,100 square foot, bu- built in 1978, and it's right here. This is that's De Anza.
That's the villages and over there, so
It's a nice older home. There's nothing wrong with it, right? Older kitchen. They painted it. Made it look nice. They staged it up. But this is a plain Jane house for three and a half million dollar- or 3.7, three and three quarters. Right? Does it even have air conditioning? Nope. Doesn't even have air conditioning.
So there you go. That's what you get for three and a half million dollars. And three and a half... 3.375. There you go.
Willow Glen house of the week. Blew it out. Not my listing. $1.7 million. Three bedroom, one and a half baths, 1,600 square feet. Little tiny cottage, and it's walking distance to downtown Los...
or, uh, Willow Glen, which is Lincoln Ave, and there you go. So maybe they flipped it inside. Let's go take a look at the kit... Yep, they did. They flipped it. It's nice. Hey, this is beautiful, right? If you're gonna buy a house and flip it, this is the way to do it. New floors, new kitchen, new bathrooms, new windows, new lights.
Make it look modern, make it look inviting. There you go. That's $1.7 million for a smaller home.
Luxury home of the week. This is Almendral Ave. Not my listing. $36 million. Six bedrooms, seven full baths and four half baths. 11,000 square feet, built in 2023 and it's Adelante... Oh, sorry. There you go. Right there.
In case you wanna know where it is about, we can go take a look. Just let me know. We can go set up a private showing, or you can do an open house. Probably don't do open houses with these kind of houses. Look at that walk-in closet. A closet that has a closet inside the closet. Crazy times. Workout room, walk-in sauna, and probably steam room, steam shower.
Gigantic wine cellar, big office. Yep. Sign me up. I'll pledge for that too, if I had $36 million.
Okay, what happens when you partner with me to sell your home? I let your house stand out by advertising for it. I have digital advertising, and we go through this every week and sh- I sh- I send comps and- And the numbers of impressions and how many people have looked at your house, et cetera.
And it's telling because when you do this, it really helps people understand the extra steps that we go to to sell your house, get your house ready to sell, right? Like we prepare it. We had the landscaping done. We had pool. We had cleaners. We had everything fixed. And now we have the marketing.
We have houses coming in. But on top of that, we advertise your house across multiple, multiple platforms and TV channels across the United States to find the right people. And then we can show you numbers at the bottom. I don't think this shows it, but it shows you heat maps of where people are buying or where they're looking at, et cetera.
So tomorrow I'll show you a rundown of one of the listings to see where we're looking at.
Bay Area Market Stats
And then here, nothing really is crazy except for we're almost at $6 billion. And Santa Clara is almost in let me redo that. Santa Clara is almost $6 billion in sales volume so far this year. That's crazy. The next highest one is Alameda with 3.6.
And then San Mateo with a lot less homes being sold, like almost half because their houses are way worth way more. But nothing else is really going on. I mean, we're seeing houses slowly sell. We're seeing houses. Santa Clara is now 20 days on market. So it sped up. Last week was 21. So nothing big there.
Inventory And Buyers Market
But let's take a quick look at the months of inventory. Everything seems to be growing except for Marin County. That popped down for one reason, but that probably could change. San Francisco is doing really well. Santa Clara County slowed down just a tad bit. This is inventory. So there's more inventory than there are buyers.
So remember, I always say that six months when an area hits six months of inventory, then it becomes a buyer's market. So clearly we're nowhere near that except for Napa, which is the last couple of five years have really hit hard because second homes have become non-essential. There you go.
Wrap Up And Goodbye
All right.
That's it for now. Thanks for watching. I'm Vito with Abitano. We'll see you out there.
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