Housing will see a ‘significant headwind’ in 2026
Housing will face a ‘significant headwind’ in 2026
Remodeling outlook rises as home building sentiment sinks
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Introduction: Housing Market Challenges
Housing is facing significant headwind. What we're talking about is a lot of different things culminating into one boiling pot. What does it mean for you as a homeowner or a home buyer?
That's a great question. Let's talk about the facts here. The things that are affecting the housing market, as well as the automotive, healthcare, credit, and finance sectors. GDP and military spending, everything, is coming to a head right now. And yes, we have turmoil that's going on in Minneapolis now, California, and all over the United States.
That's not really gonna affect the housing market. What is gonna happen is what's going to happen to the economy this year, and that's hugely important. Are you facing a layoff? Have you recently been laid off and are trying to find another job? Are you kind of anxious about what's going on? Do you think we're gonna go into a market?
A lot of people do, but we still have a ton of people buying houses.
Timing the Market: When to Buy a House
The best time to buy a house. is right about now. There's less competition, and rates suck right now. They're not great. They're not as bad as they were last year, but they're not great.
There's less competition. Around the March timeframe is when we're gonna see the market kind of shift. We'll see rates come down, and more buyers will be in the market.
Job Security and Housing Decisions
Job worries heavily. But you still need a place to stay. Houses are really unaffordable right now. That's why a lot of people are moving out of expensive areas and going to less expensive areas.
Relocation and Moving Services
If you're thinking about moving out of California, or out of Santa Clara County, or the Bay Area, let me know. That's my job. I help you move. I can arrange movers and repairs. All that stuff. I have a carpet guy going up today to one of my listings, and it's just what we do today. We facilitate the entire move so you don't have to worry about it.
Job worries are massively important. If you're fearing a job loss, take it on the chin. Start looking now. It's important that you start looking now. Because if you're worried about it, it might happen. If you're not worried about it, it's not even on your radar. Think about buying the next house now, versus when the market's crazy and hot again, and at 5%, and everybody's back in the market.
Can you adjust your rates? Absolutely. Lower rates help, absolutely. But when lower rates come, that means everybody else will come back into the market and. There'll be more competition, so that means you'll be paying more for the house that you targeted, or that budget will buy you less because there's more competition.
Just keep that in mind. That's why I'm telling you right now, there's less competition. We might even be here. We don't know. We don't know until 18 months passed, right? I can tell you that last year, the last couple of years sucked. They sucked because rates were so high and things were so unaffordable because 2020 2021, we had a firestorm.
Prices went up, and now they're unaffordable, and people who want to sell don't want to sell for less. They know what their house is worth, plus or minus, right? And then ego.
Home Selling Tips and Common Mistakes
What's the number one reason why houses don't sell? Ego. You think you're a piece of shit house that you've never upgraded, has tile on the kitchen counter, original cabinets, olive drab or vanilla or beige bis appliances.
People don't want that. They want a fully turnkey, right? And if you don't want to upgrade your kitchen or your bathrooms, or you still have 1990s wallpaper on your bathroom wall, your house is not worth what you think it's worth. Your house is not average. It's below average. We can fix that, or we can adjust the price and attract the right number of people.
It's totally up to you. But don't come to me and tell me that your house is worth X, which was six months ago, and your house hasn't been updated since you moved in 30 years ago.
Probate and Estate Sales
Probate and the state sales. We talk about this all the time. If you have older parents and they need to go into an active adult community or a place where they can be watched over or taken care of like a retirement home, let me know. This is one of the things that we've been doing lately, which is taking everything that you own.
Getting rid of it, selling it, estate sale, that kind of stuff. Let me know how we can get you started with this to get your parents in a comfortable and safe environment.
I talk about it to people all the time. When your parents are still alive, and they're losing touch with you. If they can normally do it, then it's time to have that conversation. We're trained in working with you to coach you on how to talk to your parents about that kind of stuff.
So let me know if you have any questions. All right.
Remodeling and Home Building Trends
Remodeling Outlook rises are home building sentiment. Six is not just the home. Building has been slowing for the last two decades, which is one of the reasons why we have artificially high and outrageously expensive housing right now.
One is due to inflation. When the cost of the dollar gets lower 'cause of inflation, housing, gold stock market all naturally go to get more expensive. The cost of the dollar will need to be adjusted to fight that inflation. And if you don't own a house right now, you're really feeling the pain.
Home builders over the last two decades have slowed building, which also hurts home buyers. On top of that, you have the economic shifts. You have all these other things that are affecting the housing market. And the problem is, if you have a house, if you bought a house in 2020 or 2021, you paid a surplus for it, but you also got two and a half, 3%, you're less likely to sell.
So those are the three major things that are affecting you: inflation. Lower home production. The problem is if you're in, you're not forever home. The options are to sell it and buy, rent it and buy, or stay in that and make it your forever home, or at least the next 10 years until all this stops happening.
Remodeling demand has never really waned over the last 15 years. Now, I know contractors, I know good contractors who are constantly busy, and they're three to six months out. Some are a year out, some are 18 months out. Then you have the ones that go, oh, the market's slow, and this and that. It's 'cause they suck.
Now I'm talking about licensed contractors. They're builders. They do full-on remodels. I know a few of them. It's because they know how to get it done. With good quality work with the permit department. Make sure that the products come in on time so they can throw them in, fix them, and make it look good.
And then they're off running, doing something else. Yes, builders and contractors right now are super expensive, but that's 'cause everything else is expensive. Inflation has taken a huge punch in the face for every American, and your choices are stay where you are and don't do anything or do something now.
IE. Rent and move. Sell and move or stay and remodel might be a smarter choice for you to do that. The new home market is stalling. Why? Because it's unaffordable. And since we're still at 6%, we're actually seeing five and three-quarters. You can get it down to five and a half, but once that market hits down below five, you're gonna see massive amounts of competition. Come on, come back in. Even though mortgage applications have gone up.
People are still hesitating right now because they think that the market's going to stall.
Real Estate Listings and Market Insights
Remember, we talked about that in this last episode or in this last article right here, Cupertino House of the Week. Here you go. Standard three, two, ranch house, 200 square feet, two and a half million dollars on a busy road.
Yeah, look. Cooling. I'm looking cool.
Oh, central AC. Okay, so there you go, guys. There's not gonna be anything fancy about this house. I could tell you. Look, paneling, nice wood floors, at least you have that to build on. Updated kitchen. What the hell? Kind of refrigerators. That's like an a, a dorm refrigerator.
You have granite countertops, 1990s, maybe early 2000s cabinets. I can't tell if they're whitewashed or if they're peeling. Either way, I would've painted it. Looks like it was a rental. There you go. No floor plan. Two and a half million dollars. There you go. All right.
This is what you get in Willow Glen for two and a half million dollars. Four bedroom, four bath. Built in 1939. Recently update remodeled, 2000 square feet. It'swithin walking distance of Lincoln Ave. Let's take a look inside. Yep. Brand new kitchen, dual tone, color cabinets. Seems to be a fad these days. I'm not really a big fan of this brass. This new brass is like black is the new orange. Orange is the new black. Ugh. I don't know. I'm just not a fan of that brass. And you did floor plans, so thank you very much. I appreciate that.
Thank you. That's a good agent. Atherton Ave, luxury Home of the week, $24 million. Not my listing. Seven bedrooms, seven and a half baths. 12,000 square feet, two acres, and it looks like a castle.
What you're buying is size, right? It's ego. It's like the same guy that drives around a big old fancy extra-large truck, 500 photos, same stuff. Way too many photos, guys. Nice floor plan. Let's take a look at it's very, there's a lot to talk about, right? I get it. It's opulent. I wouldn't have put 117 photos on it, though.
Which is 80 million. We closed 80 million in Santa Clara just last week. We have 175 closed deals. We're in third place, though, 'cause Alameda and Contra Costa, just like I've been telling you, those are the best buys of Contra Costa and Alameda. Unlike San Mateo, which is overpriced. Two and a half million dollars on average, Alameda 1.3, it's affordable. Contra Costa, a little bit more. 1.1 million average. That's wrong. Santa Cruz is also a great buy, guys. Not a lot to pick from, but one in a quarter of a million. It's a good deal.
It's a good deal. And list price. The sales price you can get is good because it's just hard to buy in Santa Cruz, but it's also a better buy. So if you can't afford two and a half million dollars, let's talk about going to Santa Clara or Santa Cruz. Let's go to Alameda, right? There are different things that we could talk about.
Conclusion and Final Thoughts
That's it for now. Thanks for watching. We'll see you out there.
Vito Scarnecchia
Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad
DRE#: 01407676
408-705-6817
Vitos@abitano.com
FREE DESKTOP APPRAISAL https://www.propertyrate.com/agent/vitoscarnecchia
If you are moving ANYWHERE in the world - Let me know! I know a LOT of AMAZING Agents!
🔴 Willow Glen's five most expensive homes https://youtu.be/3A_E2ck0ePg
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