🔴 Cancellations are not spiking, yet. 🚨 No more rate hikes?















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 Welcome back. Three things you need to know. Silicon Valley living, housing. Hang on a second. Inventory matters. Housing inventory does matter a lot. We'll talk about that. Talk about seller reluctance and what's going on there. And then the last thing is cancellations are not spiking yet. So let's get into it.


This episode is brought to you by Novet. If you know a vet and they're having issues, send them our way over here to move. org. Novet. It's a self-help portal. It helps figure out where your problems are, helps you identify what the problems are, and how to use the portal. It's not that easy. It's easy.


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All right. Okay. Let's get into inventory matters a lot. 43 percent below pre-pandemic levels last. I've been calculating it over Santa Clara County and we're about 35 to 37 percent depending on the week below where we were last year. So inventory is a problem. On top of high-interest rates, excuse me, I got the hiccups for some reason.


Why is this a problem? First and foremost, it's less to choose from. Second of all the demand has not really let up, even though we're at 8%, we're still seeing houses jump in and jump out of the market. Some houses sit on the market for quite a bit of time, but that's not really the problem.


That's based on the ego of the seller's price. Condition, marking conditions, market location, et cetera. So where we are right here is we're having trouble putting some numbers up. We need to be up here. This is across the United States. If you look at my numbers before, I can tell you specifically that we're about 70, 65 to 70 percent of where we need to be just in our little county.

a symptom of seller reluctance in 2023 https://journal.firsttuesday.us/inventory-falls-as-demand-surges/61467/

And we're seeing inventory shortages all across the United States. It's a bad problem. And the reason why is because that's going to keep prices high. A lot of people are asking me, when are prices going to crash down? We don't know if the prices are going to crash down. And even if it happens in the Midwest, it's probably not going to happen.


In Santa Clara County, right? Places where we're losing value by the droves, but that's because we had a mass gold rush of people moving out of state or moving into certain areas. Austin, San Antonio, and San Francisco have their own problems, Florida, Texas, and Arizona, everybody flooded there because they wanted to pay lower taxes and lower cost of living.


Totally understand that. Please forgive my tears. I'm not crying. I just put in contacts and this is literally the third time I've ever. Put in contacts and I'm having struggles with it right now. Okay. So a lot of places are seeing. Decreases in value, but you're not going to see it in San Jose. We saw it yesterday.


You still need 373, 000 to buy an average house home. People here are, people here can make a million dollars to 10, 20 million and buy a house. That's not going to be a problem. They're not going to live in my area. They'll live in other areas. California for sale inventory is a symptom of seller reluctance.

Cancellations are not spiking, yet.https://journal.firsttuesday.us/inventory-falls-as-demand-surges/61467/

And we know this, right? We know that this is an issue all across the nation. It's really happening here in California specifically San Jose. You look at how low our inventory has been. It's consistently low. We're not spiking. We're not doing anything. This is normal across the nation. We're low.


When there's low inventory and demand stays constant, prices remain the same or go higher. That's just a part of life. These negatives that is see 34 percent right there. These negatives are.


Inventory reduction from last year. That's all this is. We have, I hear that a million realtors are going to leave now. I don't know if that's true or not. We're probably going to see another 5 percent leave the industry. It doesn't mean we're going to be hurting. I certainly am not hurt. I'm busy. I'm gratefully busy.


I can't complain, but I've been around for 20 years and I know what I'm doing. Actually, December will be made 20 years. The cure for inventory shortage decreased demand, and meeting current demand with new construction. However, new construction is having its own issues, which I've.


Talked about I've sent out issues on that. So the bottom line guys is your Inventory will not hurt for a while. It's going to hurt for a while It's going to be it's gonna be slower to pick up We're seeing certain parts of the world tick up but not massively and we'll go into that with my little charts and my numbers so just hold tight if you're looking at buying houses and Don't buy the house on the that's just on the market by the house.


It's been on the market for a while. We talk about that in this home buyers workshop. Even if you bought five houses, this is a great way to get it back in your brain. If you're a professional investor, right? This is not for you. This is for people who don't do it professionally. This is. You do it every five to 10 years and buying it has a lot of steps in it.


You can do it yourself. Absolutely. But with the guidance of a Sherpa like me and an amazing guy like Scott. We can help you get into a house pretty simply. I did not read anything about that this week. It's been crazy, but I did sit down with the founder of Noah and I'm getting more involved with them. And the reason why is he's on his last bout with cancer right now.


Doing what I can to help them out. Two weeks ago, three weeks ago, I spent a week with my parents who are ailing and aging. And the one thing that I can tell you, spending that time with them is be patient with them. Ask them questions, talk about their youth, talk about their life, because they're lonely first of all, but.


Second of all, they cherish the time that they spend with you and get to know them a little bit. And that is the next part of this book. I believe it's going to tell you that you need to go in and start figuring out how to bridge the gaps. We live in a fast-paced life, especially here in Silicon Valley.


We're always moving fast. 15 different things. Carding kids too. Events or what have you going to work, going to lunch, going to this, going to what have your life is just busy, and the next thing you know, it's gone. Be patient. That's the whole reason why I brought this up today. Be patient with yourself.


Take a couple steps back. Enjoy your life because it goes quick. I'm 55 right now and I can tell you straight up, that I'm going through some emotional changes of living life a little bit slower purposefully, right? Taking the time I know I have a year and a half left with my girls, and my sons in college I'm spending every second I can To be around them because after that, my time's done with them, they're off to college and then they're going to get married and have kids or whatever and be in their professional life.


And I'll come in, swoop in, ruffle their nest a little bit, and be gone two weeks, every couple of months, a week, every month. And that's pretty much it. The rest of my life is going to be, pretty lonely. That's where it is. What you get for a million dollars. I haven't looked at this at all. Let's take a look at San Simeon.


975, 000 four bedroom, two bath, 1, 300 square feet built in 1959. It is in seven trees.


That is, no, that's the shopping. Yeah. So yeah. Million dollars for a house that needs work. Look, some are pretty original. Wow. That is an awesome photograph. Their photographer, my star got a little overhang there.


Things like this are actually good for seniors, believe it or not. They're Amazingly helpful to have because moving around when you get older is tough. My dad and the president of no event walking around with canes and little stroller things, and it's, I get it. You're older and your life.


sedentary. I could tell you that getting them out for a walk is probably the best thing for them because it puts them into a mode of getting back into shape and there's no reason for them to quit.


Okay. This has been on the market for 78 days. 975, 000 has not moved in price. A tiny little lot.


That's what you get for a million dollars in Santa Clara County.


If you have not done so yet, watch this video, take a look at it, and understand what could possibly happen to your home. It doesn't take me more than five, to 10 seconds for me to check on your property and make sure it's still in your name or your trust name, by the way, get a trust. It's all about making sure we cover you.


Part of my job is to educate you on protecting yourself in Your coming years, whether you're a first-time home buyer, you're thinking about buying moving, transitioning, or empty nesting. I want to make sure, what all the opportunities, laws, tax benefits are, et cetera, but also dealing with insurance.


And today at 11 o'clock, I am talking with. A gentleman who is the insurance claim guy on TikTok. I met him on TikTok TOK and I'm excited to talk to him mainly because he talks about how he can be a third-party negotiator for you to make sure that you have proper coverage. But also if something happens that you don't get taken by your insurance company, there you go.


All right, so find your dream home here. It's one real. com. You can get to it from any of my blog pages. This is always there. Type in your thing, your address and we can help you find a house and just check it out. Lastly. At one o'clock I'm meeting with a former Marine. I've served with him. He wrote a book called Typhoon Coast and we're going to talk to him a little bit more about his transition from the military to becoming a police officer and now.


An author, it's not going to be about the book. It'll be a little bit about the book, but mostly about his transition. So if a veteran is struggling with the transition, becoming a civilian again, if a veteran, they probably are struggling. I know it took me 10, or 15 years to give up that ghost.


Let's have a, let's have him watch that video and talk more about that. It's also about how he put his energy into writing a book becoming a businessman and learning how to work with his finances that way. Okay, let's talk about numbers because numbers are fun. Remember, I told you that we're not spiking.


Here's the proof. This is all 11 counties, including Monterey. And you look, there's just, there's no spike in collapse and in cancellations. Cancellations are not happening yet. It's typical to see November, and December spike up because they're at the end. They're like, get it. My house isn't selling. Let's wait a couple months till March when the selling season happens and we'll put it on the market.


Then that's normal, right? See, that's absolutely normal, but we're not anywhere in a spike situation right now. I don't know if you can see that too well. Let's see if I can explode that for you. There. That might be better for you. Yeah, our contacts are killing me. These are the expires. We're not talking about cancellations.


I can't find a chart to show you cancellations. Oh, did I get rid of it? Maybe I got rid of it. No, I got rid of it. But even cancellations aren't spiking over the last 12 months. You can't see a definitive number, but there you go. All right. I think let's talk about numbers. Again, you're not seeing any spikes, right?


What you're looking for are spikes in these numbers right here, right? And we're not seeing anything. They go up and they go down 1716. These are all the different cities in Santa Clara County. And when it goes to blue, there are different cities across the United States and there are some places that are going up.


Okay. Corals going up. LA is going down. So there's not a huge spike anywhere that I'm checking that I'm keeping track of. The numbers are still really healthy. As far as inventory, they're low compared to where we need to be, but I'm not seeing anything go up. I'm not seeing any spikes. So that's what you have to worry about.


And all these news articles that you're reading or seeing on YouTube and Facebook. Take them with a grain of salt because at the end of the day, they're really just there to get them, get you to click on it so you can read their article and they can serve you an ad, right? Certain areas are going to see the collapse first and that's why we're doing this.


Keeping an eye on, what's going on. Houses will sell. Houses will continue to sell even if the market crashes tomorrow, the market will continue to go. There's always going to be sellers and there's always going to be buyers. We're just not at the firestorm that we saw a couple of years ago.


So there you go. All right. That's it. I was doing the whole event this weekend. I'm going to go see Les Mis this weekend. San Jose State's playing football same time. I think it's their homecoming weekend and that's it. All right. Have a great weekend. I'm Vito with Apotano. We'll see you out there. 


















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