Five things to watch in the housing market Ryan Lundquist

 



 



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Five things to watch in the housing market, Ryan Lundquist 


I went to dinner with a friend and saw his mom. She gave me these pictures, and I have 'em on Facebook if you haven't seen 'em. I was young once, and I was much skinnier and in better shape. Good times. Boy, I tell you, I don't know if it's depressing or invigorating that I lasted this long.


A couple of things to talk about if you follow my. 


Real Estate Market Overview


Real estate, nerdy stuff, which is why you're probably here. You know I follow a gentleman, an appraiser up in Sacramento named Ryan Lundquist, on the Sacramento Appraisal blog. He's my muse on all things nerdy and numbery. 




Housing Market Signals Broader Correction

Sacramento Housing Market Insights

His latest blog, which was published yesterday, is Five Things to watch in the Housing Market. Five things to keep an eye on. Now this is Sacramento-focused, and you can relay it down to Santa Clara County and the Bay Area, but just understand that.


Those numbers are more focused on up there versus here.  


Trends in Buyer Behavior


Buyers are making it happen. I'm working with a few buyers who are moving up or empty-nesting, or moving on. That's where most of my business is coming from. Others are moving outta state or they're moving into retirement homes or what have you. First-time buyers are meh right now, 


Condo Market Dynamics


The condo market is making a different vibe. They're a little more active. And why? Because it's more affordable.


There was a point in San Jose where condos, especially in Blossom Valley, We're on par with single-family homes per square foot because there was so much demand for housing. There were so many people trying to buy a house in 20 20, 20 21 because the rates were so low. Condo rates went up. Now condos, condo prices contracted.


Home prices escalated. Condos are doing much better. However, the problem with condos is the HOA HOAs are not regulated, and they're always increasing prices, and there's no shortage of problems with the management companies and the volunteers, and I get it.


Your volunteers and they're always increasing the prices, which is a negative to me. 


Short Sales and Bank-Owned Properties


Short sales have grown, but bank-owned sales haven't here. Short sales are present, but they're not a major part of the market. I show you every week we have 27.


Let me see if I can get to it real quick.


No Wednesdays, we have 75 in the entire Bay Area. It's the entire Bay Area in San Jose. We have a new one. It's a one-bedroom bath in trade. One in Sylmar, which is Sunnyvale. So they're present. They're just not a part of the market. Same thing with short sales, and that graph shows both; new construction is no longer super hot. 



Mortgage Rates this week 

New Construction Market Shifts

It was a time when they were going gangbuster,s and they turned on resale realtors and said, Nope, we're not offering commission. You can suck it. And now they're coming back and saying, oh, we're just kidding.


We want to be your friends again.


The problem is this new constructi.n, They don't have a sense of ethics; they have their own contracts, and they try to sideline you when you do buy I,t from getting your own independent inspections, which is, are the three reasons why you want to use a realtor.


Not gonna go there right now. They're dicks. We'll just leave it at that. I need to get my light back here. I had my garage door fixed. Anyway, expect to see more concessions. This is a great summation of what's going on in our market right now, and it's stuff that I've been picking at here and there over the last couple of years.


We're seeing a great way to look at what's going on in the overall real estate market. What does that matter to you? Why are you listening to this? it's because I'm giving you information so you know, if you're a buyer or you're a homeowner, or you're thinking about selling, you know what's going on right now, and that's why it's important for you to take a look at this.


I'm not telling you that the market's gonna crash tomorrow. I'm telling you, you're an adult. You're smart. You know how to look and see what's going on out there and understand where the market's going, right? As per these key indicators saying the markets are signaling a broader correction. This whole thing talks more about what's going on in the Midwest, Texas, all the way up to Wisconsin. They're saying that things are slowing down. Hey, guess what? Things are slowing down here, too. Unless you're in the million-dollar market, it seems to be crazy, right? But if you're in a certain market, you have to understand what's going on.


Real estate isn't one gigantic economy. We have micro markets. It goes down to the area and sometimes even zip codes, which is why it's. Good for you to look at the myopic view of what your home is valued at right now, but don't get carried away by looking at your house and the three other comparables, saying that's what sold six months ago.


You need to take a broader look at the zip code, the city, the county, and what's going on there. And that's why I do this, so that we have a finger, a pulse of what's going on in our market every day. 


Property Listings and Examples


For example, this one right here, this one should have sold in seven days. If it were 20 20, 20 21, it's been 24 days.


Everything's perfect about it. It's in the mountains, on the hillside of Curry. I live right here. This one should have sold a long time ago. The problem is, I think it sold. Last year. So somebody bought it, and they're like, I don't like living here. There are too many coyotes on the hill. The view from this house is a park.


As a matter of fact, I can show it to you real quick. This line right here is a path that leads up to the culvert. That's the water trough right there. And that's a nice hill. See if I can show you. Yeah, see. So you have a nice view of the hill, but it's just the hill. $2 million started off at it hasn't touched in 24 days. It hasn't sold. There's nothing wrong with the house. Yeah, I dunno what that is. Is that box brownie? That's box brownie for sure. Okay. I like natural wood. I like granite countertops. I know the fad right now is to go quartz, which is the plastic, and then painted cabinets. Not a huge fan of that. This is dated, though.


And then what they did here with the faux tray ceiling, it used to be the fluorescent lights. They tore that out and they put crown molding in there and then some kinda light, but there you go.



What you get for $2MM in Santa Clara County 

And then put some fancy new leggings in there and. Have an accent wall. Yeah, I've sold this same model on Pelham and a couple of other places, and it's a good layout. Let's see if this one actually has the office No. They didn't. A lot of people frame in this area right here and make it into an office. But anyway, that's what you get for $2 million. What you get for a million dollars is a three-bedroom, one bath, 960 square feet.


And this road right here is busy. If you know this area, this is where seven 11 is, and you go down here, I used to drive all the way up here to Plaza and Erno, and go to my house. This is a busy street. It's hard to go fast because there's a ton of renters there, which means that there's a ton of cars parked on the curb.


So the road feels very thin, and it's a major road to get people here. You can go this way, you can go backwards back area, but the rotor is the main intercept or main artery to get people back to their homes. So rotor's a busy street, this is a three-bedroom, one bath.


Let's take a look.



What you get for $1MM in SILICON VALLEY 

Yep. That's what you get. For a million dollars to Santa Clara County, a busy street, two bedrooms, one bath. 1963. It is crazy that people were building these in 1963, and there isn't a ton of photos, but it's a basic house. If this were Florida, it would be worth, $200,000. What do I know, right?

I've just been doing this for 10 years. We already talked about that. Nothing else is happening in the market. We're towards the end of the month, next week, and the week after, we'll have new numbers. We'll update April, and we'll put in May. But inventory is climbing. Sales are slowing a little bit.

I just put an offer in on a house down in Gilroy. Yesterday I took another listing, and this house right here is going live.There'ss something wrong with the MLS right now. This one is right across the street from me. If you want to go see it, please let me know.

It'd be lovely to see you and walk you through the house. Gimme a holler. I'd be happy to show it to you. Have a great weekend. Thanks for watching Obito with Ano. We'll see you out there. 




🔴 Video Living in San Jose in the No. 4 spot. in US  https://youtu.be/hxw5k739OKU?t=521

Vito Scarnecchia


Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad

DRE#: 01407676

408-705-6817

Vito@abitano.com

Update your home value: https://hmbt.co/bT7qRJ      

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If you are moving ANYWHERE in the world, let me know! I know a LOT of AMAZING Agents!

🔴 Willow Glen's five most expensive homes https://youtu.be/3A_E2ck0ePg




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