Housing Market Outlook: Brighter Days To Come –National Mortgage Professional 🦅 🌎 ⚓️

 




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Introduction to the Housing Market Outlook

Housing market outlook. Brighter days to come from the NAR. If Yon, I've spoke about him quite a few times. He's, the NAR Chief Economist, he's been around for decades. Very well spoken. He's a good guy to listen to if you are in the market.

If you're in this industry it helps to know what's going on, and that's why I share this news with you when you're ready for it, it's available to you so you can digest it and see it in your point of view.

Residential economic issues, trends. You talked about a rebound. I don't really know why we're saying it's a rebound, because the market here really never slowed down. It slowed down a little bit the last couple months, and the only reason why we've had less sales is because there's less houses on market.

The consumption is there except for the last couple months. But over the last two years, the only problem that we've had is because houses just aren't being put on market. The demand is there, and we've proven that over and over, not so much in other parts of the country. However, here in the Bay Area, houses tend to sell pretty quickly, and we're still pretty spoiled here, right?

Existing home sales are expected to rise 6%. In 2025 and accelerate by11 11% in 2026. Home sales should climb by 10% this year and 5% next year. Median home prices will continue to rise. we did see a dip in median home sales over, all in the United States, but we're still up here in the Bay Area, mortgage rates are the magic bullet We're forecast to bring it down about a half a percentfromI don't think that's enough to trigger a fire sale or see houses go quickly.

I don't think that's enough to get people that own. Houses with two and a half percent mortgages to put their houses on market. remember back in 2021, people were buying whatever they could. Not the fewer ever home, not there are fewer they want the d. They're waiting.

They were like, I need to buy a house now because it makes economic sense for me, prices went up. Homes were selling $400,000 over list price. There are 15, 20, and 25 offers on every house. 

Seller and Buyer Dynamics
Now we're learning to work with buyers. sellers can't really command anything.

It has slowed down a little bit. We need to be at about five and a half to exit the current sellers, the recent homeowners, to put their houses on markets so they can find their forever home. That's where we're missing in our demographic of markets. We're seeing empty nesters, we're seeing relocation, we're seeing move ups, and I have listings of all of those.

I have people that are getting rid of their home, moving into retirement homes. moving out of the area and moving to bigger homes. those are the demographics of who's selling houses right now.

But what we're misswhoare the people looking for their forever home are being they're stuck in their home. Remember bought. In 2021 and it's livable. It's not what they want because they got into it. So once we get to 6%, we'll see the market speed up again. And Fannie Mae and other people have been talking about this as well as me, the housing market remains very.

Difficult at the moment. 

Federal Reserve's Influence on the Market
Part of the delay of the recovery is because the Federal Reserve has Sellers Sellersd its outlook and appears to be on a pause for a longer period. Powell testified last week and said that we're still not at a place from his point of view, whether it's political or the market. His job is to keep the economy moving forward and not get into a recession, and he's doing that job whether you like it or not.

Whether you think he's doing a move-up or not, it doesn't really matter. He downgraded his economic projections and reduced 2025 GDP growth from 2.1 to 1Moving raised its inflation forecast from 2.4 to 2. The fast ascent of mortgage rates, which was two, three years ago. It really hurt the real estate market again, across the nation.

We're still buying houses. We still have demand. We still have houses selling. Not at the same tick as 2021, but also not what we saw in 2000, 2004, We're not in a recession right now. This is still a great time to sell, right?

Wage growth is at 3.8, inflation edged down to 2.3. Home sales has been very difficult over the past two years. We've seen the lowest home sales in 30 years for two consecutive years. There's a light at the end of the tunnel. 

Local Market Insights

Again, this is something that is for the entire United States.

Not global, not local. We're not seeing a contraction in our market. We're seeing a slight contraction right now because we're out of the selling season. houses are coming in, our offers are coming in lower and with more concessions on them.

Yesterday I spoke about this, I'll bring this up again.

Bring that over here. Ding ding. Thank you camera. Man. When you sell on a hot market, yeah, you get a higher price. That's great for your ego. You can tell people you sold at the top of the market. Really it does hurt you because you sell for more, but you also have higher selling costs. and then when you go to buy another house for sale have higher acquisition costs.

So remember that you have more competition. You have to pay a premium. Because you're going up to $400,000 over list price. Sometimes you have to deal edged an appraisal gap and you haven't gotten a lot of repairs done before. But here's the thing, when it's in a slow market and you're buying a house, you can ask for all that.

You can ask for repairs, you can ask for concessions. You can ask for credits and buy downs for the points and all that other stuff. And it's actually a great time to buy a house. Currently experiencing, it's not affordable due to the end figure out where you can. Houses, get into a house now, and then you can lower the rates when they come down.

 

Pricing Strategies for Sellers

When you sell in a cool market, like right now I have six listings c, coming up, I have three activinand they're Fairly active. my houses are getting showings almost every day. It's not like it was 15 showings every day for a couple da days 

You know when you price it you're gonna get it sold quickly. What's the pricing for it? If you think it's worth $2 million, list it at 1.7. If it's worth 1.5, list it at 1.2, 1.3. some buyers will come in and say, no, that's what I'm paying for.

If you price it you're gonna get a lot of offers and then you can see the price bid up to where the market really is. I know it's scary, but that's just the way this market's set up. It's blind bidding. It's not a fair thing, it's just the way it's okay.




Distressed Property of the Week
Distressed property of the week. This is on 16th Street in San Jose, not my listing. $850,000, two bedroom, one bath, 816 square feet, and it's near 1 0 1. Here's the thing. This is a great thing to take if you are looking at doing a tear down and build up, If you want your forever home, this is a great option for you.

You can buy it for 800 and put 500, $700,000 into a nicer home. Now you have something that's fairly million, MyMy, you have some equity built into it. There's not much to this house. It's pretty blank, pretty barren. This is also a great rental, but,f or $816,000, you're not gonna cash flow very well unless you have the cash to drop down 





Featured Listings
This is home, Some Apple, $2.4 million, Live Oak, my listing. Four bedroom, three bath, 1700  square feet. Two-story. And there, it is right there.

So this is a Shea home, a Shea built home, and it was updated a few years ago and then repainted recently they have granite counters and hardwood floors. This is a nice house. It is move-in ready.

It's not anything super fancy. There's a nice grill outside the kitchen set up and a nice backyard that needs a little bit of lawn care. 


Mountain View, home of the Week. The reason why I picked it is 'cause it's close to Castro Street, walking distance to do. This is Fairmont Ave. $2.4 million. Three bedroom, two bath, 1200 square feet. Built in 1945 and it's a basic bungalow home. Original cabinets, original tile.

White appliances. There's not a whole lot to this house, but it's also fairly large for the price. Fairly large. It's on one car garage. Let's see what it's calling.

Nope, no air conditioning. The older homes tend to not have air conditioning. ioning and 40-day on market report. We're starting to tick up a little bit. We're seeing those numbers go up, It's normal to see this. In the summer, but we are seeing homes flagrantly tick up even in the 90 days.

It's goingShea-builtle bit are still pretty nominal. We're seeing the REO California tick. They are just a tad bit. Nothing really crazy to worry about because back in 2010, this was 2 2600, not 266. Okay. And then for sale in San Jose. 





Market Balance and Future Outlook

I think we're in a balanced market right now. I'm gonna call it.
I know I was saying that it's a thousand for San Jose and 2000 for Santa Clara, but all things being what they are, I think we're in a balanced market. I think it's fair for buyers right now. Buyers are taking their time, they're being picky about what they're buying, and they know the value of every house that goes on the market.
what they're looking for is homes that are turnkey, ready to move into, and they don't have to do aninha one-carit. There's houses out there that are DIY and the ones that are in price. Whether they're overpriced based on their condition, 40-day location in the market, or they're sitting on the market, and people are being picky about it.
Ju.t remember that's gonna happen. We're a little bit higher than where we need to be. I still think we, once we get to 800, 900, will be really in a buyer's market, but homes are still selling. I told you that before. Homes here in the county. We're staying on the market 17 days on average once it gets to six months.
That's a buyer's market. So again, I don't think we're hurting right now. I think we're seeing a balanced market, the way things are set out. With the rates being where they are, where the economy being, where they are, and the propaganda machines spouting.

Negativity, the sky is falling. World War III, nuclear Armageddon, all this stuff. I don't think it's going to affect a lot of people. I think what is really affecting us is the rates. Once the ratesWhatWhatdown, we'll see the market balance out and back to normal, which is being more of a seller's market here.

There are two years, we've seen buyers take advantage of this and it's a great time to buy. Less competition. Don't pay a premium, no appraisal gap. You can ask for repairs, you can ask for credits, or you can ask for credit concessions. And you can buy a larger house if you can afford it, right?

Because rates are still. Crappy right now. Thanks for watching. I'm Vito with Abano. We'll see you out there. 




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Vito Scarnecchia

Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad

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408-479-2427

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