It’s a buyer and seller standoff. Who will blink first? - Ryan Lundquist

 







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It’s a buyer-seller standoff. Who will blink first?


Introduction and Market Overview
Ah, nothing better than coffee. Buyers are being persnickety, and buyers are holding off. Buyers are. In the control seat. They're driving the bus today. The market has slowed down now. 

Buyers' Market Dynamics

Well-priced houses that are positioned well, that are completely done up, they're going to get a lot of attention.

There are still buyers out there. They're being picky, though. They want a fully turnkey house. They want to pay the right price for it, and they're taking their time. 

Insights from Ryan Lundquist

I. Ryan Lundquist, who is an appraiser up in Sacramento, IE, the Sacramento Appraisal blog. He's my muse. He does a lot of great graphs and charts, and great information fothe r Sacramento area.

While I don't service it a lot, I take his information and use it for my own. And share it with him. When you see his name as a hashtag, that's 'cause I'm sharing the information that he sparked my interest. So that's why I use him a lot. But here, this thing right here, it makes a lot of sense, right?

Buyers and sellers are talking. They're like, hey. I don't know if I wanna buy your house. I think I'll eat a little bit. I think I want to take some time to buy your house. 

Current Market Conditions

Now, there's a lack of urgency today, right? Four years ago, in 2021, we had a firestorm. I had 15, 20 offers on every house.

People were desperate to get in because the rates were so low. Today we're at 7%. This gives buyers some breathing room, and I think it's healthy. 

Historical Market Comparison

And I always say that we're at 2000 homes for sale to be a balanced market, but I think we're at a balanced market right now, at like 1400 ish, simply because the rates are so high.

Buyers are waiting, and actually our inventory has kind of peaked..d So I think right now we're at a good, happy median place for buyers and sellers to come together. Is the seller gonna get that high price that he was hoping for? 'cause that house sold 3, 4, 5 months ago at that price, maybe.

If it's in great shape, but if your house is dialed in and it's priced right and you attract the market, you're going to sell. Buyers are willing to stay and wait. And guess what? They have a lot of houses to choose from.

So if your house goes into contract, there are five other houses that they can look at that they've been waiting on. So demand has absolutely been shrinking. I did something like this. Sales volume comes in May. Oh, there it is. This is year to date, January through June, 2001 to 2025. We're the lowest right now. We have been in 25 years, guys, 24 years. If you take that. Aggregate.

This is the Santa Clara County homes aggregate year-to-date stack. That means it goes all the way to December. It shows something similar, alarmingly, but in 2004, we had 17,000 homes for sale or sold. Right now we're at. 3000 homes per sale. In 2004, we had 8,000-ish homes sold by June of last year.

Now this is just mid-June. This was done a couple of days ago, so it's not exact, but we're still so pathetically low. 








Impact of Interest Rates
Because rates are down now. Economic uncertainty, job loss, uncertainty. We don't know where we're going, right? If you're thinking about buying, this is a great time to buy, right?
Fannie Mae forecasts a sharp dip in mortgage rates by the end of the year. Next week, June 17th or 18th, the Feds are going to testify and talk about lowering the rates. We're expecting a quarter percent. We would like to see half a percent. Don't know if that's gonna happen or not, but we need to see rates come down for buyers to get active again.
Beware, though, if rates do come down, more buyers will enter the market, meaning more competition. So just keep that in your head. Rates today are 7%, but if you buy a $2.3 million house, you can buy it down with a point or so and drop it down to 6%. You're still paying $10,000 a month. The median household income is 1 59, and the median income was 77,000. How do people afford it? People are affording it. I don't know how they're doing it. 
Buyer's Net Sheet Explained

Okay, let's go into this real quick buyer's net sheet. I'm gonna open this up so you can take a quick look. There we go. 

San Jose Property Transfer Tax
Okay, so the reason why I picked 2.3 is because the San Jose just opened up their property transfer tax to $2.3 million. We're going to be at $2.3 million on average pretty quick.

That means everything on the bottom end, on the lower end, people don't have to worry about it, but it's something to be concerned about. $2.3 million after the transfer tax takes effect. What does that mean to you? It means a whole lot more money because I will open this up so you can see this real quick.
Transfer tax versus conveyance tax. A house sold at $2.3 million at 0.75 would be $17,000. This is a one-time transfer tax. A house sold at 2.29999 would be at 33%, or 0.33% would be $7,500. So if you sold it for $1 less, you're saving $17,000. This is from the city. If a property sold at $2.3 million, there would be a conveyance tax, plus a transfer tax of 17,250, which means your total out to the city of San Jose would be 24 4,840.
So yeah, $300,000 more gives you a little bit more leeway if your house is edging up towards $2 million. That's good because this is from last year. When you look at the volume of homes sold over $2 million sharply declines. As it does with the other homes in different cities. However, it's not a normal thing to see that.
I think they're smart to do that. I think it should have been two and a half million dollars, but there you go. Let's go to the buyer's net sheet, $2.3 million. How much do you need to earn? For the 36 DTI. There are exceptions. You don't have to make $500,000. You have to make $5 million.

Is that right? 5, 3, 6. For your debt-to-income ratio, you need to be making $5 million. No, it's times five. You need to make $662,000. In order to qualify to buy $2.3 million, that's a household income. So both of you have to be making about $300,000. There are exceptions. What happens if you only make $500,000 combined?

Yeah, you can still get into it, but there's gonna be an exception, meaning your points are gonna be a little bit higher, and your total out would be about $13,000. A month an exception means you're gonna be paying like a quarter percent more. So let's make that 6.2,5, and now you're paying $14,000 a month.

But if you're making $500,000, $600,000, that's a great write-off right there. Are there people out there who are making that kind of money? This is Silicon Valley, right?

It costs a lot of money to live here. You need to make a lot of money. And if you don't have that mindset, then you're making the median price, right? I make more than the median price or income, but still, I can't afford a $2 million house or $a 2.3 million house. If you're thinking about selling right now, this is a great time to drop.

Download this checklist. It helps you walk through every nook and cranny of or house so you can get your house ready to sell, so you can repair all the little tiny things. And if you need a handyman, Gimme a call. I have plumbers, I have handymen, I have landscapers, I have painters.

They're all super busy right now, working on the different houses I have coming up for sale. Just be Aware that this is how we do it. We want you to have your house repaired. I know a lot of people are like, I'm not gonna fix this. I'm not gonna fix that. Well, you don't have to, but that's going to distract a buyer's eyeball.

And remember, we just talked about buyers being patient. Their sense of urgency has waned is good because sellers have gotten complacent about presenting their house. Now it's time for you to do it. I'm seeing it all over the place.

We have homes that are on the market. We have over 300 homes on the market for over 40 days because it's overpriced for the condition and the market location condition market. All right. Get your house looking pretty. Set realistic expectations for yourself on price. The list is a little bit low. Attract the market. Get your house sold without a lot of drama.





Real Estate Listings Tour
Okay, what do you get for $2 million in San Jose? This is a four-bedroom, two-bath, 2200 square foot home built in 1979. It's a beautiful house. This is against the hills, so it faces north, and it's staged beautifully. Great little house, the older kitchen, but I still love it.



I prefer wood. I prefer granite over quartz. Buyers tend to like light and airy, so they want the white quartz and the bright painted cabinets. If you look closely at this, maybe they have newer floors, but everything was upgraded back in the nineties and two thousand.

And remember, I said that this house is set against the hills. You're gonna have a sloped grade. But that's nice 'cause you have a nice backyard. You can see over and take a look at the views of the city. Beautiful house. Nice views of the power towers, which you get for a million dollars.

Four bedroom, two bath. 1,260 square feet. Built in 1958 and this is a 9 5 1 1 1 over by Heller Park. You can walk to Heller Park, and there's a nice bike path that goes all the way down to Morgan Hill, Gilroy. It's an awesome ride if you ever do that.

Let's take a look inside. This one looks like it's been done up, but I can't tell you why they got rid of the grass, probably 'cause this tree destroys the grass. So they mulched it, got rid of the grass, and put low maintenance yard in.

It's been a windy day, 'cause that looks like the for sale sign. Okay. I like this feature right here. It really helps the house pop out because it's a standard house, right? But at least you did something nice to it. This looks nice. It's been updated. It looks like it's been flipped. Yeah, this is definitely flipped.

You can tell because they put it in stainless steel, but they put in the cheap stainless steel stuff, and it's brand-new. Everything is brand spanking new in this house. So yeah, while this is flipped, I would take a closer look at the workmanship, and that's the finer details. That's why you have an agent who knows how to look through and find different things.

See, they cheaped out. They want mulch instead of grass. I would've put a lawn back there and probably gotten rid of this, whatever this is. Looks like a deck. Maybe it was a pad for a hot tub at one time. Yeah. There you go. And thank you for putting the floor plan on so few and far between.

I don't think they did the floor plan. It costs literally nothing for us to do a floor plan. It allows a buyer, I actually put them right up front. I do the front of the house, the door, and then I put the floor plan in because the floor plan helps the buyer visualize where the placement of all the rooms is, and if they like the flow.

It's not about curb appeal, it's about the secondary thought. How is this house gonna flow? When you're looking at a picture, you can't really tell that Nothing's changed. I haven't touched these because we're still in the middle of June.

We're still in a seller's market, but the rates are so high. We're seeing houses sit on the market a little bit longer. We're going to see houses sit on the market 40, 50, 60 days, and I think that's gonna be the norm until we see rates come down again. If you price your house correctly, complete all necessary repairs, and make it look attractive, you'll attract buyers.

You're gonna attract offers. If you don't do anything to your house, you have a price that is what the last house sold for, you're gonna be sitting. Have a fantastic weekend. I'm Vito with Abano. Thank you for watching. We'll see you out there. 



🔴 Video Living in San Jose in the No. 4 spot. in US  https://youtu.be/hxw5k739OKU?t=521

Vito Scarnecchia


Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad

DRE#: 01407676

408-705-6817

Vito@abitano.com

Update your home value: https://hmbt.co/bT7qRJ      

FREE DESKTOP APPRAISAL https://www.propertyrate.com/agent/vitoscarnecchia

If you are moving anywhere in the world, let me know! I know a lot of amazing agents!

🔴 Willow Glen's five most expensive homes https://youtu.be/3A_E2ck0ePg




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