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Who is selling right now? | What you get for $1MM in SILICON VALLEY
Bone to be alive. It's in my head right now. So who is selling in today's market? That's a huge question. Are the people who bought during COVID selling? No. Why would you sell a house? That you're paying $1,500 a month for the mortgage. If you have a mortgage that's 2.5%, 3%, why would you sell?
Even if it's not the perfect house, you have no motivation to go and pay 7%. It's actually 6% now, but we'll get into that today.
Current Sellers in the Market
But who is selling in today's market? That's great. Let's take a look at this. Who is selling? I love this picture. This is from Ryan Lundquist. He's my real estate muse.
He's up in Sacramento. He's an appraiser, and he has some great information, great stats.
Sacramento vs. Santa Clara County Listings
So all this information comes from the Sacrament, and I take some of this information. And relay it over to Santa Clara County and then, 12 Bay Area counties, so that we have real numbers here instead of up there anyway, our current list is mostly from people who bought over the past years.
No, but a solid chunk of it is 18% of the listings represent homes that were previously purchased between 20. In 2024. It's not a huge chunk, but it's decent. Right. Are owners with low rates holding onto their homes? Yes. Absolutely. Why would they sell and put themselves into financial pain buying another house right now if they need a, if they have a three bedroom and they need a four bedroom, or they.
Moved, or they have moved jobs, and they need to go somewhere closer to their work. It doesn't make financial sense. It's easier for you just to commute, and if you commute from Morgan Hill, San Jose, or even Los Gatos up to Palo Alto or Mountain View. You see the pain of going up there every day.
It's true. So do sellers have massive equity? Yes, absolutely. There are, and we talk about this all the time. We have homes that are selling short, sold, and andbank-ownedd. We just don't have a huge chunk of it. We have maybe one or 2% of the inventory right now that is bank-owned.
I mean, on Wednesday, we look at all the bank-owned properties all over California, all the way down to the Bay Area,
So our current listings, mostly properties purchased long ago. Yeah, over 50%. This is again, Sacramento, but the numbers are relative, right?
They're going to be pretty close to each other. Most of these homes have been owned for over 20 years. A majority of the sellers that are selling today are selling basic homes, right?
It's not what buyers want though. Buyers want turnkey, fully reconditioned homes with air conditioning that they don't have to work on. Some people will, for the most part, people don't want to work on homes. They don't want to take on other people's projects. Other people's projects mean I have to redo the kitchen, and I have to put a new roof on.
I have to redo the pool. I have to put air conditioning into a 60-year-old house. It just doesn't make sense for me to do that when I can buy the same house somewhere else.
Okay, so just think about it from this point of view, right? From a buyer's point of view. If I have a house that looks brand new and it's a little bit more, maybe even a hundred thousand or $200,000 more, would I be willing to pay that if I were in the market right now versus a house that's $200,000 less?
An agent doesn't want to sell an overpriced house. It's a waste of time for them. It's a waste of energy for them because they know. Buyers come into a house, and they look, and they say, Yes, this is a nice house.
I will pay for it because all the other houses look the same. They're in the same condition and they're in the same price range. If you have a house that needs work and is overpriced for the location it's going to sit, and then the seller's gonna think that the agent's an idiot. It just happens that way.
That's just the way it is. So if your house is in original condition, price it accordingly.
Today's episode is brought to you by the home inspection checklist. If you haven't done it, drop it right now. I just sent it off to somebody yesterday.
Up in Hayward, they are going to sell their house, and they have some things that they want to take a look at and fix before we bring in an inspector. You know, carpet, walls, chips, cracks, dents, things like that. There's a dishwasher that needs to be repaired or replaced. Little things right, but the little things are going to matter for you.
When a buyer comes in and they see a crack, or a dent, or a scratch, or dingy walls, or carpet stains, they're gonna think, ah, you know, there's something wrong with this house. There's more deferred maintenance with this house. So download this, get it done today.
Rates are down below 6%. Well, not technically the quoted rates, the rates are 6.42.
For a 30-year jumbo, it's down 0.05%. And yeah, look, a software arm could be 5 82, a 15-year fix, which is a little more expensive. Even a 30-year fix is 6.49. But look, let's take a look at it here. The average price of a house in Santa Clara County is 2.4 in change. A down payment of $483,000, right? You can go all the way down to 3% or 5% on a conventional if your income qualifies.
Right? Mutual of Omaha. 5.952. Farmer's Bank of Kansas, 5.975. They're not looking at you as the borrower. If this were your perfect candidate, you would have no blemishes. You have a great income, and you have plenty of a down payment. We're gonna let you pay a point to drop it down to 5.97.
It's actually 5.875. That's awesome. We're below 6% guys. Buyers should be coming out in droves. There's no reason for people to not come out right now, except for the affordability. So my choices are list it low, bring in the buyers, get it sold, or list it high and watch people come through and tell you, Oh, it's not what we're looking for whatever reason.
Okay, what you get for $2 million in Santa Clara County, this is in Santa Clara City, so it's a little closer to the epicenter, which is Palo Alto of our market. Baldwin Drive, not my listing. $2 million, four-bedroom, two-bath, 1300 square feet, built in 1958. And if you're wondering where it is, it's right here.
It's north of Two 80, west of the Lawrence Expressway. Let's take a look inside. This is brand new on the market.
It's on an inside corner, meaning your backyard is a huge pie, which is great because of he way this thing's set up. That's awesome. And believe me when I tell you that $2 million for this house is a good deal. It's a good deal because houses over here are selling for $3 million, all fixed up. So buy the house, fix it up.
Your house is worth 2.7 to 3 million bucks, right? Everything in here is original, cleaned out, and original, right? They didn't even bother staging it because they know what the value is. They underpriced it, they're pie-shaped in the a buyers, and they're gonna get it sold in six days. So what can you do with the $2 million house? Well, you can knock it down and put a McMansion on it. You could spend $200,000, fix it up, and live in it. Because look, this house, there's a lot of deferred maintenance in it. Remember what I told you? It's a pie shaped lot. It's big, huge backyard. This is a huge value for anybody.
This house is gonna sell sick, and it doesn't matter what the condition is because the price has been priced below where the market is. So I'm gonna tell you what you get for a million dollars in Santa Clara County, Silicon Valley, autumn Bail.
Not my listing. A million dollars. List price decrease. We're gonna see how many days on market. Three bedroom. One and a half bath. Oh, this is an attached house too. Wow. This isn't even a good buy. I'll tell you right now. This is by Montague Expressway in six 80. It's been on the market for 20 days.
This thing's probably worth eight or 900,000, maybe. Let's take a look inside.
Yeah, you need new floors, new walls, new kitchen. Well, the kitchen looks okay, but that outside, man, that thing is horrible. Yikes. Well, yeah, you can tell that the agent did their own photos. Probably said, Hey, look, if this thing's gonna sell, it's gonna sell for whatever, but let's just get this thing on the market because yeah, I wouldn't buy this thing.
I'm not a fan of attached houses. Developers do this so they can cram more houses into the land that they buy. And the cities and counties want it because they can put more A, PNs, meaning they can charge more property tax. But for the buyer, the owner, I don't think it's a great thing.
It doesn't even have air conditioning. If you're gonna price out a house, make sure you look at the air conditioning, make sure it works, make sure it looks good. Make sure you have it because buyers expect it. Today people are expecting air conditioning. I get this all the time. Well, I've never had air conditioning, having lived here for 30 years. I don't need to have air conditioning. It doesn't matter. It's not what you want. It's what the buyers want. If you want a sellable product, you have to have air conditioning inside the house.
Because it's an added cost. You're looking at seven to 10 grand just to put in air conditioning, and then you have to have the ducts redone. And then on top of that, this is a 52-year-old house that has been maintained outside, and it's for a million bucks. People aren't gonna buy it.
This thing was originally listed at $1.5 million. I would not have listed it unless it was 800,000. I would've quick-sold that thing.
Inventory and Market Trends
Existing home sales are out for Fred. This is across the United States. We have 4.6 months of inventory right now, which leads us into a great segue.
That's these big, huge blue lines. Right now we're at 4.6. If you look at the numbers right now.
This is 4.6 July, so we're seeing the numbers come out, and unfortunately, the US numbers come out a month late. Napa's going up in inventory. But everything else is pretty much staying down eMartínfor Marin. We're at three months of inventory, and everything else is pretty nominal.
And then look at. The active number of homes for sale versus the months of inventory. And it's nothing for Santa Clara County, right? We're nowhere near it. These are the cities' breakdown, and everything's coming down evenly.
This is San Martin. All right, so what does that mean? It means inventories, dwindling. Buyers are coming out. We're gonna start seeing more competition. We're gonna start seeing more people at open houses. We're gonna start seeing more buyers come out of the woodwork, and we're gonna see more volume of sales come in because we're at the parity of where buyers are happy and sellers are selling their houses.
When rates are down below 6%, a happy medium, our happy range is 5.5 to 6% for home buyers. We're right exactly where we are. And will rates come down lower when the FOMC testifies at the end of September? We don't know. The assumption is, is that we're going to see rates come down a little bit more, so that's where we are. Hope that makes sense.
Conclusion and Upcoming Listings
I think this is a good time to get your house on the market. I have one coming up next week. Yeah, on the 12th, we'll be having open houses. I've got one up in Hayward, and I have a couple more coming around, too.
So, this is the time. It has been a slow summer. I've pushed people off. I've kind of advised them to wait until September. Now we're seeing rates come down. I'm excited to see what happens, and stay tuned because everything will come down in the next couple of weeks, a nd we'll see what happens. Be able to report to you live.
All right. That's it for now. Thanks for watching. Have a great weekend. I'm off to go do my weekend stuff. I'm Vito with Abano. Thanks for watching. We'll see you out there.
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