Where are Californian residents moving






 

Where are Californian residents moving Ryan Lundquist
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Moving Out of California


Yeah, we have a bunch of people moving outta California and my. Stats Muse Ryan Lundquist, who's an appraiser in Sacramento, also does pub public speaking on the ups and downs of the real estate market. Great guy to know. I would like to learn very unbiased information about real estate stats in the Central Valley.

Go here. 

The California Exodus: Myth or Reality?

Ryan's talking about what's going on in,   the Exodus of California now, is it an exodus? Not quite as much as everybody thinks or what have you. There was a time, four or five years ago during the COVID when people wanted to, I don't know, work remotely and they could do it wherever they wanted to.

There was a great opportunity for them to move to say, I don't know, Austin or wherever, and they started. Moving out. And then things got better and then their employers said, well, if you want to continue to work for us, you're no longer remote, so you gotta get back to Cali. That trend has since changed.

Migration Trends and Statistics

here's a, now it's the same chart in different ways of looking at it. So this one is blue and vertical, and people are mostly moving to Texas. This is from 2024, so it's not exactly all that. This is the same chart, just horizontal. And again, it's Texas still. Number one, Nevada is number two. And by the way, if you're moving to Las Vegas area, let me know.

I have an amazing real estate agent, my sister, who would love to help you buy a house in Las Vegas area, Summerlin or Henderson, or wherever she knows 'em all. She's lived here for 25 years and she's been doing real estate for a very long time. This is the same chart in green, uh, vertical.

Who's moving to California. So people from Texas, people that moved to Austin and they were working remotely, their bosses yanked their chain, said, Hey, come on home. You gotta work home. That's where they're coming from, Arizona, all the way to North Carolina. So there you go. Who's moving to California again in green?

Horizontal. And Ryan says, are you team vertical or team horizontal? It doesn't really matter. It's the same numbers. Going back to Cali. Yeah, that's an old one, Ryan. I did that years ago. 

Net Domestic Migration Insights

And net domestic migration. Migration shift. This is the important one right here. This is people going in and out the net shift.

Here in 2025, it's 229,000 people moved out of California. Unlike 2021 in the height of the forest firestorm of real estate, when people were getting out, 500,000 people moved out. I'd love to find this Rosie Club. Okay. The population didn't decline by 229,000. And remember, we have people, dying and li uh, being born, et cetera.

So just keep that in mind. 





Population Growth and Housing Affordability
And then the growth in the US resident population   our population on the whole, which is why affordability is a huge problem, is continuing to grow by leaps and bounds. We grew by 100, 1.8. Million, 101.8 million people last year alone,

last population increase, right? That problem is adds to the fact that developers aren't building enough houses, apartments, townhouses, or condos or whatever to fill the need of the population growth. That's why we have a massive affordability problem. So there you go.

Net domestic migration shift. This is to Texas, or for Texas, 2005 to 2025, there was 67,000 people moving to Texas still. So even though a lot of people are moving out of Texas, there's still more people moving to Texas. And then you can look at it a hundred different ways. Nevada, 15,000 people net grew.

15,000 people. Not a lot, but it is net domestic migration shift in Arizona was 31,000 and Tennessee. 42,000. Well, Arizona's Purple, right? I don't know. So was Nevada. Idaho. 20,000 net. This is net. People moving in and out, right? Who's moving and why? Housing, work, and family. All the reasons why. The reason why I move my parents to Nevada is because when they're ailing and they're getting older, and they're hard to take care of, my sister's here to take care of 'em, keep an eye on 'em, make sure that they fall and they can't get up, that kind of thing.

So there's a lot of reasons why, and then obviously work. And then if you really are hell bent on buying a house in California, you're tending to move out of the Silicon Valley or even the Bay Area. I know a lot of people that moved up to Sacramento because it's far more affordable. So if you wanna learn more about that link is in my blog.

This is homes.com. This is the sales sheet that I talk about when we go to list your house. This is all the marketing that we do to push behind and get your house sold far better than any other house on the market. And that's it. Oh, here we go. Now the, um. 

Existing Home Sales Trends

Existing home sales. This is across the United States.

This is the consumption or inventory, right? And you'll notice, look, there's a trend. June, 2025, it was 4.7 months to reduce all the inventory down to nothing, and now we're down to 3.3 in December. However, let's take a look at this number right here. December was. Fri of January was like nothing, almost happened.

Like all the numbers, inventory numbers went up, the consumption numbers slowed down.   The actual number of inventory went down as well for a lot of different areas. But now we're seeing it kind of start to increase. So what we're saying is. People just didn't buy a lot of houses in January. All across all the 12 different counties and the 12, 15 different cities that I look at, 12, 13, 15 different cities that I look at, we see the numbers continuing to grow up.

Everything's in an upward trend right now, but again, it was January, it was freezing cold. Two, there was no reason for anybody to buy, right? There was no reason for anybody to go out in the miserable cold and go out and look. So we saw a lot of houses, a lot of the inventory, the consumption numbers go up because it was just slow.

Now that the weather's getting better, we're going to see those numbers change, and we're going to see more houses get on market. So don't freak out. Oh my God, the market's Crashing. it's not gonna happen. All right. 




Real Estate Market Analysis
6.35 hasn't really moved. These are jumbo for, uh. All across the us. If we break it down to 9 5 0 1 4, which is Cupertino and 2.475, which is a very small house in Cupertino, you're looking at 5.5% a PR with a third of a point into it.
And the actual. Rate is 5.5, the quoted rate not taking you into account. Okay. And your monthly payment would be 11,200. Same thing here. Cross Country Mortgage. I know a few agents that work there, a few loan officers that work there. They're coming in being very aggressive. If you want to know who I work with, let me know, but I also work with some other people too.

So there you go. 




Property Listings and Market Opportunities
And then this is what you get for $2 million. This is in. I want to say Los Gatos area. Almaden area, right off of Blossom Hill Road. This is $2 million. This is a great buy. Four bedroom, two bath, 1800 square feet built in 1960. Take a quick look at this if you want to take a look. This is a true fixer upper guys, but think about this sweat equity we've been talking about the last couple weeks.

If you want to buy a house and put some good money into it and fix it and turn it around, this house could be worth a whole lot more money. And thank you for putting the floor plan out, guys. This is nice. I think this should be a requirement.   We have a fish to fry. It's a four bedroom, large living room, large family room.
I'd probably take this living room and chop it into an office and then boil that out because all you really need is just one family room. But that's me. Okay, what you get for a million dollars? This is Arctic Ave, not my listing. This is in what? What area is that? 9 5 1, 1 1, 3 bedroom, one and a half bath.

1000 square feet. Built in 1959 and here it is, right off the center road and you know Coyote Creek. That's the Golf Lost Lagos Golf course. The fairground right there. This house actually backs into the fairground it looks like. Let's see. Satellite, let's take a quick look.
Yeah, it's in the storage area. Okay, so there you go. And it's a nice house. Looks like it got converted though. It looks like they converted the garage.
So I'm not a fan of that. And they didn't bother to do the floor plan.
There you go. If you wanna look for decent affordable house, that's what you get for a million dollars in San Jose. All right, and then we also looked at these, so there you go. 

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

That's it for now. Thanks for watching. I'm veto with ano. We'll see you out there.

 


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