Introduction and Personal Memories
I was young once. My senior drill instructor stopped Sergeant Waters and me as a young 18- 19-year-old slick-sleeved private. Graduating from boot camp in MCRD San Diego. This was September 18th, 1987.
Marine Corps Reflections
Those days are days that you don't ever forget, along with November 10th, which is coming up, and if you don't know, it's the Marine Corps birthday.
I was looking at this. This is my dress blues cover, my formal cover. This guy right here is missing a little chinstrap that goes right here, and this bill is just cracked this completely unserviceable.
I was talking to another buddy who talked me into joining the Marine Corps, and he said. I should wear my dress blues to the Marine Corps Ball. This year is 250. The Marine Corps is 250 years old as of November 10th. And it's kind of a big deal to those of us that I've served and, I'll be in Vegas at the time and it just so happens one of my buddy's kids who's in the Marines is in 29 Palms and their Marine Corps ball is in.
Las Vegas. So I was talking about wearing my dress blues, but boy, I tell you what, I will not fit into them. I'm like 10 inches bigger around the waist, probably 20 inches bigger around the gut. Anyway, to all of those who have served, thank you for serving to all of us Marines. Happy birthday.
Okay, enough of that.
Mortgage Rates Update
Today's mortgage rates are going up 6.35 for a jumbo, a 30 year jumbo. You can get a VA at 6% and you can get a 15, you can get a 7, So FR, I don't even know what the hell that is, but Right sir. Slowly coming down. They've actually ticked up over the last couple days since the Fed testified, but that's because they're exposing their margin.
You can buy the rates down. So if you buy an average price house in Santa Clara County, which is $2.4 million and $500,000 down, and you have excellent credit, you can get your rate down to 5 Your payment will be at 11.5 or $11,500, and that's with about a point. Just so you know.
Renting vs. Owning in Retirement
Okay boomers own the most homes, but 12 million will still rent. Is it smarter to rent when you're older, when you're retired? Yes and no. Depends on your financial situation. If you have more money than you'll ever spend it's not even a question.
But if you're struggling to make ends meet, would it be smarter for you to move into an apartment or a condo? So you don't have to deal with the maintenance and the upkeep. And sometimes I think about it and all the money that I've sunk into this house when I turned 65, am I gonna continue to want to do that?
And I was talking to one of my neighbors yesterday at the dog park and he was like I've been in this house for 28 years and I've kept it up. So I thought, and I look at my house. It's nowhere near where it was like when I first bought it. I didn't do all the maintenance I thought I needed to do.
As you get older, you're less inclined to do stuff around the house. You know, my daughters, I just looked at my garbage disposal and my daughters leave food in there overnight, and that means it's gonna eventually rust out.
And those things are four or 500 bucks. Now they're, not cheap anymore, so I'm gonna make them pay to have it fixed because it is just one of those things I've had to replace four or five times since I've been here. To $20,000 a year on this house, on top of the mortgage, on top of the rent on top of the insurance and taxes, et cetera, just to keep it maintained, but also update it As I get older, I do less and less around the house because, well, I get lazy. I get less inclined to do stuff, and when I do anything around the house, it takes me four or five days to get over it because, you know, I'm older. You know, I was talking to a couple friends about playing hockey and the guy I did the haunted house with, I know him from hockey and He still plays hockey and I just, whenever he says, you should come play, all I think about is the four or five days of pain that I'm going to have after I play. And I meet some people that play hockey at the park and they talk about me joining their, little beer league. And, all I think about is the pain, right?
So again, as you get older, it gets harder for you to recover. And even I go to the gym every day, right? I go hiking, I'm very active. But then you go and do something and you're sore for a couple days and you're, you're just not in that maintenance shape, I guess you'd say.
So is it easier for you to rent financially Maybe. Maybe it's smarter for you to stay in place. I can tell you tax wise if, there's two people that own it and one of 'em pass away, you get the tax base step up. It's probably smarter for your kids if you. Die in place or pass in place. It's kind of a morbid thing to talk about, but you know, the only two things that are for certain in this life is death and taxes, and you have to talk about 'em.
California has some really great laws in place to help transfer your wealth to your, kids. And if you wanna learn more about it, I can put you in the direction of the right people to talk to and I can give you the questions. Once you pass, then you have a little gold mine in your house and your kids can sell it off and you have the step up talk to tax basis, and then you can move into an apartment or a rental and not have to ever worry about it again. Something to think about. You have any questions or comments on that?
Please do make those comments.
Foreclosure Trends
Study rise and foreclosures filings continue through the third quarter. Now listen. Foreclosures in California. We talked about it yesterday. they're not really doing a lot in California. But in Florida, in Texas and a lot of different states, they're starting to happen.
Texas for sure. There are hundreds of homes going into foreclosure right now because people are losing their, jobs. A lot of people moved to Texas to do remote work, and now their employers are saying that they have to come back to wherever they went, to New York or California, and they have to go back to work.
So they have to sell their house, but they can't sell their house because now it's underwater and then they wind up losing it. So that's kinda what's happening in Texas and Florida. 72,000 properties started the foreclosure process in the third quarter. It's an increase, 22%. That's the foreclosure process.
it's, a lot different than what it was in 2008. So don't think you're gonna go out and get a hundred homes in foreclosure. It's a totally different process.
Now it's all online and you go through a bidding system and you're buying it as is. So there's a lot of things that are wrong with it. Texas has almost 10,000, Florida has almost 9,000. California is 7,800. those are foreclosure starts. Those aren't actually turned over to the bank and they have to sell 'em off.
' cause right now I can tell you that we have exactly in California 278 homes that are bank owned or in distress that are actively trying to be sold. So it's not like it's crazy. Those foreclosure starts just mean that they're going through the process of doing the paperwork and trying to work with the owners and trying to get it back into market.
Or back into payments so that they can afford to do it, whether it's a loan. Adjustment, try to work with them, try to help 'em out. They don't want to take back the house they want you to make the payments. So they might go from a 30 year to a 40 year and lower the payments, see if you can get back on track, et cetera.
So. Loan modification. That's what it was called. All right.
Impact of High-Rise Housing Projects
Santa Clara High-Rise housing Project would displace businesses, but is that a bad thing? Affordable, high-rise housing is sprouting along El Camino rial and Santa Clara, but it would displace numerous local businesses.
However,
I can guarantee you that most of those restaurants and different businesses out there that are struggling to stay alive right now from COVID, from not keeping up with technology, not from scaling and all this other stuff, maybe it's time for them to get out of business.
I hate to say it this way because mom and pop businesses are the lifeblood of the US economy. It kind of sucks. And if you're in a strip mall on El Camino and you're being told you might have to move the affordability of that is just nothing. If you're a small mom and pop and you're struggling, there's no way you can afford to take all your business and move it down the street.
It's just not gonna happen. Out with the old and with the new, kind of like our political system, we should get rid of some of our older 30 year plus tenure. politicians, they've just they're, entrenched and they're in a power mode. They're on both sides. I don't care what side you're on, they need to move on.
So do these businesses. Right. And you look at like PF Chang's, you look at, what other ones. All these other businesses that are no longer around, there's a PF Chang in Vegas, but they're not here in California. Why? Because rent's pushing them away. It's just normal, right? It's normal for businesses to gain popularity, do the cash cow, and then contract, and then go outta business.
Happened in my magazine business when I was in magazines and I sold advertising. Print was the king, and then all of a sudden Google came over and then we had to adapt and a lot of those businesses went away. So just is what it is. The thing here, this opportunity here, it's just like downtown Sunnyvale.
If you've walked downtown Sunnyvale, it's beautiful. Those used to be strip malls and old single level type strip mall type. Downtown and now they got rid of it and they put high-rise buildings on it and they have retail on the bottom. And yes, the retail's gonna be more expensive, and those old mom and pops, they're going to the wayside and there's new businesses coming in.
So I think out with the old and with new is a good thing. It sucks for the business owner, but because they were staunch and they didn't. Go, work in their ways and try to get better at efficiency and technology and all that other stuff. Maybe it's time for them to retire. Kind of sucks, right? Half a curry and the guy just never changed his business. he finally sold it, and the people took it over and the business went out of business like within two years because they couldn't turn it around and for Norton's, and the prices kept going higher, and the food was good.
And the atmosphere was cool, but it needed to be updated. And I can tell you like the cutlery was cheapest cutlery in the world. And if you're charging premium prices, you better have a look and feel to every detail. Like if you go to Las Vegas, you go to pay $50 per a meal, you're gonna get treated right.
You're gonna your, cutlery is gonna look nice, the plates are gonna look nice, the atmosphere looks modern and nice, so you gotta keep up with it. And that's the thing about businesses is you always have to constantly renew yourself. Figure out how to reinvent yourself, make yourself more valuable to your clients, because prices do go up if you say, this is the same old thing, but because of inflation, meh, well, you're gonna piss off your clients and that's what's gonna happen here.
Current Real Estate Market Overview
the new numbers for inventory and sales across the 12 county. Bay Area counties are out and inventory is down. Sales are down, but that's normal. This is November, right? These numbers are October. We're past the selling season. We're past the secondary selling season, August and September.
October was expected to go down in inventory and sales because hey, guess what? It's raining right now. Are you gonna go out and look at a house right now? No. It's cold, miserable. Gets dark at five. You're not gonna go out and look at houses unless you're super, super serious.
They want to look at it when it's beautiful and warm and sunny, and it makes 'em feel good to go look at other people's houses, right? So inventory is dwindling, active number of homes. Months of inventory and everything is, is dwindling. But again, I think March, we're gonna see a resurgent march, April, may, I think we're gonna get back to the normal.
I think the last couple years was good for us to see a balanced market, but I think in March, April, may, we're gonna see something come back as a resurgent of the seller's market. Don't, Hold my feet to the fire on that though. Santa Clara County cities, months of inventory, everything is up except for, I think that was San Mar just popped out.
They only have like three houses for sale, so they're kind of an outlier, but they're part of the county, so we've gotta include 'em. There's only one. What is that one right here?
Anyway, we're still within the norm. And these blue, the blue is the US inventory across the entire us. And that can tell you right there, four and a half months of inventory across the us with the million homes that we have for sale, we're still in a seller's market.
'cause things are slowing down. We're edging up to a buyer's market. We're getting close to it. You see how it's kind of been edging up very, very, very slowly. I think it's going to turn signals March, April, may. We're gonna see a downturn in the rates. And there you go.
Conclusion and Sign-Off
That's it for now. All right. Have a great weekend.
I'm Vito with Abano. Have a great weekend. We'll see you out there.
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