Return of buyer’s market in 2025 comes at a price
Return of the buyer’s market in 2025 comes at a price
Hidden homeownership costs are straining affordability
San Jose Real Property Transfer Tax Increases to homes sold over $2.3 million.
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Return of the buyer’s market in 2025 comes at a price.
The right buyer might come around, but the buyer has been patient. The buyer has been waiting for the right opportunity to arise. And if you don't believe that, take a look at the numbers.
Current Market Overview
Now, we're still in a seller's market; however, there's a huge amount of houses that are on the market that are just not selling.
I have two of them. They're overpriced for where the value is. Now you can have a stubborn seller, you can have a stubborn buyer, and ultimately you don't have a house being sold. That's because if the value doesn't come in for what the buyer will pay for, your house will not sell.
If your house is overpriced, buyers will look at it, but they won't put an offer on it, period. It's just common knowledge, common sense. If you think that we're going to wait for the right buyer to come along and see the value and put an offer at your price that you think it's worth, you're sadly mistaken.
And I see it happening all the time, my sister. She's in real estate too, wrote offers on houses this weekend below list price with a lot of concessions on it, and that's just the way it is. Nothing's going to change.
One of 'em got denied. They came back and said,We'ree not gonna pay any commission. We're not gonna pay these closing costs. We want you to pay more than what our house is worth.
Seller Ego and Pricing Strategies
Well, the buyers walked because of arrogance, the number one reason why houses don't sell, seller ego.
I can guarantee it. We're here to bring the buyer and seller together and make it work right? When times are great ,and there's a firestorm, and people are desperately trying to buy houses, you can have an attitude about it. Right now, things are slower. Prices are coming down a little bit. Still a seller's market.
We're still seeing houses sell list priced ove,r li,ke three to 5% over list price. If you price it accordingly, if your ego tells you it's worth $1 million and it's worth 500, your house is gonna sit. Period. Done.
Buyer's Market Dynamics
Okay, let's take a quick look at this story here. Return of the buyer's market in 2025 comes at a price.
This is written by Ryan Kingsley, editor. For Scotsman Guid,e a mortgage lender's magazine, keeping us educated on what's going on there. The gaps. Widening home sellers, outnumbered buyers in the market by 36%, up from 35% in August, so there's more sellers than there are buyers.
So it calls it a buyer's market, but here in the Bay Are,a it's not. It's still a seller's market because prices are going up, and houses are still selling. We're gonna go into that. We have the 12 Bay Area chart. Real quick marketing definition of a buyer's market is having at least 10% more active sellers than buyers.
Technically, our rule of thumb is anything over six months. If your market, whether it's a zip code, a county, or a city, is going over six months, then you're in a buyer's market because houses are overpriced and they're just sitting on the market for way too long. Oftentimes, the buyer ends up winning the negotiation because they have options. It's no longer a feeding fren,zy and you have 17, 20 offers. You're lucky if you get one offer. And now the buyer's taking advantage of that saying, you know what? I'm gonna write two offers. Is it ethical? Not necessarily, but you know what?
Buyers have options. So when I work with my buyers, I'm saying, let's go write three offers, two offers. Because if you get stuck on one house, then you're, not playing with a full deck of cards. You're not a You're just saying, oh, I have a pair of twos.
When you have two offers down, and you come back and see what options are given to you, whether it's a counteroffer or a signed offer, you have options. Buyers are taking their time. Buyers are taking advantage of this market. And here's the other thing, too. If both offers come back and they're not what you want, walk, go.
Look at another house next weekend, right? It will happen. You can write an offer, and deny it when they come back with a counteroffer. That's ridiculous. And guess what? In seven to 10 days, that listing agent will come back to you and say, Hey, I think we need to talk. You're like, too bad.
We've already moved on. We already have offers on two other houses, and they don't even want to talk to you anymore. You should have taken my offer when I gave it to you. That's how it is today. So are we technically in a buyer's market? Not necessarily. But if you find a house that's been onthe market for 30, 60, 90 days, you might be able to negotiate a little bit.
Just sayin,g Cupertino House of the week. This is upland weight, not my listing. It's $8.7 million, six bedrooms, seven and a half baths. 8,000 square feet built in 2003. And I'm afraid it's in the fire zone. Here it is. You're up in the hills. There's some hiking up there, some beautiful country back there. It's anice-lookingg house. It's a little opulent. I don't know if I paid $9 million for it. There are a lot of cracks that I'm looking at. So far, I don't see anything inside, which is peculiar to me. I don't know what the inside looks like.
You're not giving me a reason to go inside to look at it. Crazy Willow Glen House of the week. This is Willow Glen Way, which is a busy street. Seven $1.7 million. Two bedroom, two bath, built in 1938, and it's on a tiny lot.
It's been on the market 47 days because you can't do much with it. It's not even 5,000 square feet. A standard lot, six to 8,000 square feet. So this house is gonna sit for a bit. If you're looking for a two-bedroom and Willa Glen, this is gonna go off as a steal, I can bet you that'll go in about 1 2, 1 3 luxury Home of the week is in Napa.
And if Napa, you can get stuff at 95 cents on the dollar, on average. So if this thing pops and sits for a bit, you're golden. But imagine having a vineyard, having a ranch house out there for a measly $25 million, seven bedrooms, eight and a half baths, 8,600 square feet, just built five acres.
It's custom. It's in the east hills of Napa. This gorgeous monstrosity. Look at this thing. It's just beautiful. That's the front of the house. Nice raised flower beds. Nice outside living pergola with electric heat. I like that. That's a beautiful house, guys. It's all over the place. That's an A DU, it looks It is a garage, an A DU. That's your entry, I guess, to the main house, and then your A DU, and then probably a little storage shed. But you don't get the vineyards around it. Maybe something you don't want. You could probably buy it on top of it. There you go.
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Bay Area Market Analysis
I wanna show you something real quick. Months of inventory 12 B area County. This is the one that I measure out here. And November is not exactly accurate, is close 'ause we're at the, towards the end of the month, Thanksgiving is coming and we're on our way. Napa has the longest lived housing market right now.
We've definitely in a buyer's market. Napa is 75 days on market, which is still nothing. Six months is 180 days. That's why I'm saying we're still in a seller's market based on stuff that we've done for the last 50, 60 years, which is six months inventory. I think we're good over here.
Everything in the Bay Area is good, mainly because we have such a huge and strong economy here that it's hard for us to understand what it's like in other communities like Las Vegas or St. Louis or Austin, where it does take six months to sell a house. Some people lose their patience. I suggest you don't.
It takes time to sell a house, be patient, right? For example, like in Blossom Valley where I live 19 days on market, on average, there were three closings this week there were four new listings put on market, right? So they're seven put into contract this weekend. So if you price it right, your house is gonna sell.
My suggestion is always price it below where you think it's going to go, and you never know what's gonna happen. There's a fear. I understand that psychology and the fear that goes on and what's going on in your head as a seller. Well, if it's 1.9 that they can come down a little bit, but if I listed at 1.8, they're gonna come down.
And what happens if they give me an offer at 1.7? Then tell 'em no, but at least you'll have more traffic coming in. Closed sales in Santa Clara County, and the sales volume.
Just this week the loan is 360 million, which is crazy. Now look at Alameda and Contra Costa. if Santa Clara County is out of. your price range. $2 million, $2.4 million. Look at Alameda's 1.4. It's more affordable and it's not that far away. Granted, we're talking about throwing in all the Oakland houses with Fremont houses and all that too, but you could pay $2 million, $3 million for a house in Fremont.
But it's not three to $5 million in Cupertino. So you're gonna drive a little bit and traffic's gonna suck. But that's the mindset, right? Same thing with Contra Costa. You're looking at another $200,000 in savings. Is that worth it for you to commute? Napa is 1.4, and you're looking at 94 cents on the dollar on average.
Versus 103 in Santa Clara. 104 and a lot of different areas are coming down quite considerably.
Conclusion and Final Thoughts
There we go. Thanks for watching on Vito with Ano. We'll see you out there.
Vito Scarnecchia
Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad
DRE#: 01407676
408-705-6817
Vitos@abitano.com
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