FAKE NEWS Jason Walter 84% of California is in Trouble: NEW California Housing Market Update

 

FAKE NEWS Jason Walter 84% of California is in Trouble: NEW California Housing Market Update
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San Jose Snapshot | By the numbers | #rewtf of the week 🦅 🌎 ⚓️
FAKE NEWS Jason Walter 84% of California is in Trouble: NEW
California Housing Market Update
First Republic Bank sold to JPMorgan Chase
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 Hey, welcome back. Three things you need to know. Silicon Valley living. Let's get moving. Today we're talking about three things you need to know. The first thing is fake news. Jason Walters. It's true and it's not true. And I'll tell you why it's not fake news and why I'm full of crap, but you have to wait until the very end.


So watch, I'll try to keep this between eight and 10 minutes. And then First Republic Bank sold one of the fa failing, the fourth failing bank. And what's going on? Why I think that's important for you to know. And then a coming soon and Yep, let's get moving. Today we're talking about. First, before we get started, let's look at the W R E W T F of the week.


Yeah. Look at that one. And I grew up with the sky. Yeah. I offered 20,000. I haven't heard back from him. So that's just, yeah, that's like deep Ozark. Alabama, Arkansas, and I had, I have actually a duplex in Arkansas somewhere, but yeah. Yeah. Make offer. There you go. All right. So 40 days on the market, we have 133, which is shrinking, exceptionally shrinking.


Same thing with 90 days on the market. REOs are shrinking. Rio's, all of California's bank-owned properties. All of California popped up just a little tiny bit. Now, again, we'll go through this a little bit, but I do want to talk about what we're doing here.


Prices did go down. Now if you know who Jason Walters is, he's I think he's an appraiser, and then he's also a realtor up in the Sacramento area, and he does a really great job of talking about really what's out in the industry. Sometimes it's a little more salacious, but at the same time, gives you really good numbers and it all comes from C A R N A R and a lot of other really tightly focused numbers from all across the area.


He's but, The whole thing here, 84% of California is in trouble. That's about true. What's going on here is this one right here, and we'll come back to this. That's how we keep you hooked. First Republic Bank we think that this is the first bank of many to fall. JP Morgan bought it. They actually made out like a fricking bandit.


They, I think made like 18 or 80 billion in the transfer because the feds, the fed, the F D I C saved them. But the bank had to collapse and get into bankruptcy. And then the JP Morgan pulled him out and while they had to sink in 30 billion, they made. Boatload of money. 13. What is it? 92. I'm just looking really quick, but JP Morgan made a boatload on this.


So good for them. Sad for JP Morgan for the First Republic, but I don't think this is going to be the last. Of failing banks. I think we're going to see a lot of regional banks failing here pretty quick next six months, and I think that might be our tipping point. If you recall, there's this, these tipping points that I talk about right here.


Housing, credit cards, healthcare, commercial real estate, and energy on automotive. I think I was wrong. I think it's going to be the banks that are failing that will trigger or tip over our recession. That's just maybe where it's going right now. I don't know.


Coming soon. Okay. Yeah. This is an awesome house. I've been working on this for the last couple of three weeks, which is why I wasn't there yesterday. I didn't do one yesterday, this beautiful little house, so I grew up. Let me see if I can show, you here. There we go. This beautiful little house, original I grew up in Cupertino, and this is actually in West San Jose on the east side of Saratoga.


Sunnyvale.


And this is the house that we've been working on for the last couple of weeks. And I know the seller from high school, her mom passed away. She grew up going here, and this is what we do. When we, came in here. This house was full of personal property. I can show you photos galore. This is a blank slate or blank canvas.


If you say, if you wish. Everything is in its original condition. These homes when they're completely turnkey cell for 25, 26, we're going to be listing this at 1 8 8 8 8 8 8. And just as a side note, there's another house that's a similar size, about 50 square feet less. It listed for 1.6, and I can tell you it went for way over one 2.0 and it had 33 offers.


So if you recall back a few weeks ago, I was telling you where the market's hot and where it's not. Everything on the west side of 87 is still fairly hot, including Almaden Valley, and somewhat argue that it's on the east side, but it's on the west side. But Almaden Valley, Willow, Glen, and all the way to Cupertino, Palo Alto are still amazingly hot.


The photographer that shot this yesterday, He's an amazing photographer. I think he does a fantastic job. I actually ask for him all the time now. He's, and he is a great guy. He told me he did a house up in Palo Alto that was like 18,000 square feet, maybe 8,000 square feet, 5,000 square foot garage, and it's going to go for 18 million.


Everybody that has money is looking to move into this area and this house and these, houses over here in this neighborhood. Let me see if I can really quickly


Maps. Yeah, there's, for me real quick.


On.


Oh, there. It's right there. Okay. So I actually sold a little townhouse over here a couple years ago. Another good buddy from Monte Vista, and this is Monte Vista, right here, DeAnza. I lived here when I was a kid right here and this. Funnels into Limbrick High. There's no guarantee. And then this is, I think it's called Westbrook.


It's the neighborhood,


but it's very close to the Apple campus, which is Ray, that's Apple influence loop. That's where the old headquarters is. And I think, let's go to satellite. Right here. That's Apple Park. That's the spaceship. Sold a condo over here last year and yeah, you're basically walking distance to here. Lazy Dog Bar.


If you ever wanna take your dog to a bar, there you go. But this is all Lynbrook High School right here. I took a video of these parks right here of this Calabasas Park, and then.


That pops up. Yeah, so I actually, when I was a kid, I rode all the way out here in my little BMX and rode in these dirt bike paths pretty fun times. Okay. Enough for that.


More and more in talking about financial intelligence. And what it is, we get together with a group of other service professionals, health insurance, home insurance, car insurance, financial advisors, lenders, you name it. And we come together and we talk about what's going on and how you can get ahead in life.


And. Just today we were talking about doing this thing about creating a small business where people can feed in and invest and buy small businesses together and together it's stronger, it's a better thing. And we have a solution where we take a business that's we buy it from a retiree or what have you, and make it better.


But the whole idea is getting you to a point where you can actually invest money. You don't have to make a ton of money, but you can make, what money you save work for you, and you can be better educated on financial advice and financial choices that you make to make yourself get ahead in life.


If you're interested, let me know. Okay. Real quick the numbers really quick. Really, quick. We're still hurting for numbers. And I want to tell you the reason why is because


Yeah, okay, 95%, but here's the thing, 51 out of the 78 houses, two-thirds of the houses that closed last, the last week. Sulf for over list price, yet we're going down an average of, that's because the houses that are in really bad condition people are picking at, and more houses on the east side of 87 are selling for less than on the west side that is selling for more.


So there you go. Last year we had 131, which is, I would say yeah, 60% down. And then the average list price is 1.5. Again, we're, that's the year, year. in line. The average is 1.586. So we're coming up on the 5.86. Last week was an anomaly. It was pretty high, but I think we sold a couple really big houses.


And then the average for sales price is 1.6, and that's where you get your average. We're actually down $5,000 from the top of the market last year or, the average. So we're coming down a little bit. Just a slight, fraction. The medium price is 1.5, which again is not that far off from the average.


Average. This price, sales price ratio, last year it was one 16. We're going to see these numbers change quite a bit here in the next couple of months. A couple weeks. High low, 1 37, 75. Again, you have to look at the averages for these to make things make, any difference, right? That's what we're tracking here.


17 days on the market and I took a look to make sure. And then pending, we had 92 pending last week. That's a far cry better over the last few months, right? I don't think we, yeah, I can't. So the last time we hadn't close to 92 was where are the numbers? Oh, November? No, it was over here in September last year.


So six months ago. So the market is coming back, guys. You're a first-time home buyer I would suggest. Oh geez.


Sorry, here we go. Let's go back over this again. 268. The actual number's 3 59. We had 78 closes last week, and again, of those 65% or 51 of them were over less price. Even though the list price, the sales price ratio is 95%. These two numbers are right here. I think a majority of the houses are selling. They're keeping those numbers up.


Days on the market. 17, pending 92. T F T, back on Marcus. 25 cancellations. All right, let's talk about Jason Walters again, I don't want to besmirch him cause I think he's a fantastic guy, right? And this is where he's making this claim. This, thing right here. Only three of the counties in all of California are above 50% or above the asking price,


right, or 50% above, sold above the asking price. We're still very healthy. San Francisco County is doing very healthy. Alameda is doing very Cal healthy San Mateo. I think what's happening is they're just seeing the contraction because people are just watching houses stay on the market longer. And that's okay.


And I think that's true for the rest of this, right? Mendocino Plumas, if you're looking for some really great real estate, those are the areas you want to go to, right? El Dorado, we just have a list of sales going on there. San Lu Obispo, anything on the coast is going to continue to do really, well. So again, It wasn't fake news up until the fact that he showed this.


It was fake news to me until this thing, because he was saying everything is down, All the counties are down, like negative 32, 34, and negative 31. Like, this is the Bay Area, right? But this is all the Bay Area. Remember the places that I tell you that, you can ab that you can focus on?


Different counties that I should do, I should know this, it should be Monday, right? We have that little thing right here where a lot of these places are great places, to invest in Contra Costa Sonoma Solano. Again, they have the numbers wrong, and once that figures out, well, I'll let you know, but like Santa Cruz, they're doing really well.


But look, 89% on average. So you can come at a 10% discount. Napa, they only had 10 sales last week, so he's very right in all this stuff. But all the way through I was like, you're wrong. You're full of crap. And all of a sudden now I wanted to talk about this because.


All right, we'll skip that out. Where is that last?


housing supply. That's what's going to save us, right? Our housing supply. If you look at all of here, there's an abundance of supply versus over here or Bryce Versa. San Francisco. San Diego, Sacramento.


We see us, and we keep going back. Supply. Doesn't matter what the rate's going to be, doesn't matter if unemployment's out or the stock market crashes or whatever. Because we have such a low inventory, it's naturally low. I think we need to be like 800, 900, and even 1200 just in San Jose for single-family homes to keep it a healthy market.


We haven't seen that like that for quite a while, so there you go. All right. I'm at 16 minutes. I promised you eight to 10. I lied full of crap. I'm Vito with Abu. We'll see you out there.