2025 Housing Crash Predictions

 



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2025 Housing Crash Predictions

The Market's Going to Crash?

 The market is going to crash. The sky is falling. We've been saying that for a really long time, and I've been telling you for the last, I don't know, four years now. 


Affordability and Living Costs


I hope the market crashes, not for the sellers, but for buyers to make it more affordable for buyers to come in.


There's a lot of people out there that want to buy a house and they just can't afford it. There are certain things you can do and certain things you must be careful about, but living here is expensive. And only some make 300, 000 a year.


Insights from Ryan Lundquist


My muse, my data nerd muse, Ryan Lundquist, who's an appraiser up in Sacramento. I talked to him quite often. He has some amazing charts and he has great storylines and topics that really wrestle with this idea of what's going on with the market. I wanted to show you this. I think it's very telling.


Debunking the Price Crash Myth


The price crash hasn't come. I don't believe the market will crash unless there's a major global meltdown. And even then there are people with a ton of money that will come and pick up the houses. This is part and parcel of what this story is telling us home prices are always predicted to crash, especially with social media.


Now you hear something called crash bros. If you haven't heard of a crash, bro, some guys sit on the video on YouTube and Tick Tock. Espousing that the market's going to crash because of this and that and all these different things and all these little graphs and it's a valid argument it very well could but it needs a tipping point a reason for the market to crash we're so tied into our GDP and the global economy that If prices started to crash outside of Silicon Valley, I highly doubt we would see anything other than a blip.


And it's mainly because. We just don't have the supply for the demand that's here. Could it push more people out? Yes, but then more people will enter. More investors will enter. 


Market Dynamics and Predictions


What happens if the market crashes? Oh no, I lost my job. I can't afford to keep my house. So I have to give up, sell it. Or give it back to the bank We're hearing about a ton of layoffs all over the place. And I know people who have been unemployed for six months, two years, and they're not hurting, right? Because people know from 2008, my generation, 2008, they got hurt. And they know that they have to stash cash, right?

AIDA Attract, Interest, Desire, Action

If you're a renter, it's much more difficult for you to stash cash because all of your money is going to somebody else's mortgage, Wells Fargo, NAR, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, CoreLogic, And ank of America. They're all saying that we're looking at, I don't know, 3, 4, 5 percent appreciation next year, even Apollo Global Management, which I don't know who they are, said 10.


It's because there's not a lot of inventory. After all, back in 2021, 20, and 21, we saw rates go down crazy and people bought, and now they have a ton of equity because rates go down. Home values have increased due to inflation due to rampant home buying during this firestorm that we had in 21.


And now it's a totally different world, right? We're off the cuff. We're at a plateau. Are we going to see a crash? We could see it in different markets. It says right here, there's no such thing as a national market. It's because we're all microcosms of our own microeconomics.


Here are venture capitalists, electronics, and high tech. You go to St. Louis, it's finance and healthcare. You go to Ohio, you have. I think football, I'm not sure exactly, but every little place has its thing. And yeah, prices contracting in Florida because prices have, and insurance prices have gone up.


Prices contracting in Austin, not so much in Dallas, Fort Worth, or Houston. That coming down a little bit, but that's because people are saying I moved there and didn't really like it. Didn't like the summers. I'm going to go back to California or wherever they're coming from. We did see a rebound in inflate prices.


We saw a lot of energy go through November with my listings. It's one of those things where people got caught up in a fervor because rates went down a tad bit and then people went back into the market.t 


REOs and Foreclosures Analysis


This one right here talks about the median price versus 23 and 24 Prices have gone up on average days the market has gone up number of sales has gone up in short sales we're very flat on reos or properties Whatever pops up and gets sold really quick because it's just not the number of REOs happening right now. This right here talks about new listings and new sales. Since 2016, we had 35, 000 in the Sacramento area, 35, 000, 37, 000, 36, and 000.


And now we're down to 25, 000 for 2024 and 2023 was even worse. People are getting used to that norm. And now they're going back to. Business as usual. It's not a firestorm. Don't expect 400, 000 over the list price accordingly. And it sells. Now this is one zip code. As you can see back from 2007 to 2012, we had a glut of foreclosures.

What you get for $1MM in SILICON VALLEY

There's one zip code in the Sacramento area. This is the Oak Park neighborhood. The blue ones are the REOs ' owned properties. And you look over here. And there's just nothing to be had because people are holding onto their houses, hell or high water, right? We had one at 1 million. And the Arden Manor neighborhood, 


There are, but not the flood of eos we saw back in 2008 to 2012. It's because if you look here, these numbers just are not climbing right? See, the numbers just aren't climbing. We had thousands of bank-owned properties.


During 2008, 2012, we just, we're not seeing that. So even in our area, they're still happening. They're just not happening at the glut where we had thousands of short sales and REOs. REOs in Sacramento County, we had.


13, 10, maybe 16. That's Sacramento County, right? Watching these videos, understand that what we're offering is just information. I'm not telling you we're going to have a crash or not. I'm a homeowner and I know that would hurt me. It would hurt everyone else who owns houses, but people understand it comes and goes.

Home Inspection CHECKLIST HERE https://abitanogroup.com/homeinspectionchecklist

The price goes up, the price goes down, just like the stock market. And if we have a huge glut of homes for sale, prices will come down. It'll make it more affordable for home buyers. And that's what we want. We want to get away from a nation of renters. This segment is brought to you by the home inspection checklist.


If you're thinking about selling, download this inspection checklist. It'll help you with your honey-do list and get you going. 


Current Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Rates this week

Today's mortgage rates are 7 percent The rates haven't changed much outside of, 7%. If you're a VA, you can look at 618 or FHA is 616. And quoted down, you put a couple of points in, you can lower your rates down quite affordably. These are based on 250, 000. Let's see,


change search options. Let's do 2 million.

What you get for $2MM Santa Clara County

Let's get excellent credit and update the lenders. Let's see what's out there. 29, 000 a month. That includes PITI, which is, principal interest tax and insurance. So yeah, you're 1. 6 million loans is going to cost you 10, 000 a month regardless. But you can buy it down and you can always go down, maybe ask what it would be like a point and a half, two points to buy that down, and how much lower that rate will be.

So you can definitely get moving on this. And get yourself into a loan. This is what you get for 2 million in San Jose, Santa Clara County. This is KingstoWayay. Not my listing for a bedroom three bath, 1, 700 square feet built in 1960. And it's right in the Almaden area. Here's a basic house. Nothing's been updated. It still has plastic. Counters, white appliances. So this one's priced pretty much accordingly, especially for its location, which is North of the expressway. You have an original, it's like a laundry room or maybe a wet bar. I don't know what that is.


And a nice dry, low-maintenance backyard. There you go. That's what you get for 2 million in San Jose. Let's take a look. Oh, it's in the Saratoga area. That's why it's so expensive. Yep. And then let's see what you get for a million dollars. I've actually been to this property showing it a couple of days ago.

This is Brody. It's not my listing five bedroom, two and a half bath, 1, 786 square feet built in 1998. Silver Creek Country Club, Seven Trees, Communication Hill, and Flight Path are right here. I used to live right, where,


Rahway, Skyway, right here. That's not too far away. Again, it's 95111, and this house is Well appointed, but it has some funky nooks and crannies. There's a full bath in the garage and it's a tandem garage. You'll see here, that there are two different floorings. This is the family room and then right adjacent to it is another bathroom.


Another full bathroom, but it doesn't lead to a bedroom, which is confusing upstairs are four full bathrooms. This is the master. In here is the master bathroom, they updated it with some modern lighting, but over here, the guest bath is old-looking. This one left me wondering, this is a total R E W T F deck right here. This is Trex and it's overbuilt and melted. I think upstairs is Trex as well. It's overbuilt and functional for sure. There's A stairway. And then there's an air conditioner right here That's the deck up on top so you can look at your neighbors and then there's a shack right there But you know overall it's a decent house. It needs Some touching up.

FREE HOME BUYER CHECKLIST HERE https://abitanogroup.com/Homebuyerchecklist

This is the system I use for this lead funnel right here. If you want to download a home buyer checklist, you're going home shopping this weekend. By the way, I have open houses this weekend down in Hollister. If you want to come visit, please do. We talked about the housing and inventory snapshot.


 


Napa Housing Market Insights


This is Napa again. Napa has been hurting. We're looking at almost six months. I think Napa is the place to go guys. Look, it's been hovering at or below six months, which means that's a buyer's market and it's affordable. Napa has an average of 1. of  5 million. So yeah, you can get 10 million houses, but you can also get 500, 800, 000 houses.


Can't do that in San Jose. You just have to be willing to drive a little bit.


And here are the months of inventory and, the number of active. So remember back in 2008, 2012, we had a huge glut of inventory. Prices came down a bit. We're not seeing anything that's suggesting that right now outside of Napa. 


Santa Clara County Inventory

Inventory And Supply Charts

These are the cities inside Santa Clara County.

San Martin has a four-month, inventory and only four houses for sale. Everything else is below two months. If you look right here, these are the numbers. U. S. is showing a 4. 2-month inventory, and that's what we're talking about in Ryan's blog if it's at six months, then it becomes a buyer's market.

Campbell is 0. 4 months, Cupertino 0. 8, and Gilroy is 2. 8. I do want to point out that San Benito is 3. 7 months. That's high, but given the fact that it's a pain to get to Hollister, which is where the main suburban center is, it takes about 20 to 30 minutes to get through Highway 25 or the new freeway coming in.

And there are good things and bad things about that, right? Getting to Silicon Valley from Hollister is a pain. Naturally, your dollar is going to go a lot further for houses, but you're going to have to deal with, commuting every day. There you go.


Conclusion and Final Thoughts


That's it. That was a fun week. It's been a crazy week. I'm Vito with Al Batano. Thanks for watching. We'll see you out there.


Vito Scarnecchia Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad DRE#: 01407676 We’re Hiring! 408-705-6817 Vito@abitano.com Website: abitano.com https://www.onereal.com/vito-scarnecchia-1 update your home value: https://hmbt.co/bT7qRJ RELOCATION@ABITANO.COM FREE DESKTOP APPRAISAL https://www.propertyrate.com/agent/vitoscarnecchia If you are moving ANYWHERE in the world - Let me know! I know a LOT of AMAZING Agents! Book appointments here: https://calendly.com/abitano/15min Home Buyers Course YT YouTube.com/SanJoseLiving IG https://www.instagram.com/abitanogroup/ FB https://www.facebook.com/vito.scarnecchia/ LI https://www.linkedin.com/in/vito-scarnecchia/ Blog http://blog.abitano.com/ POD https://spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/oxdH1Hwfcvb Professional Photography by Kim E https://photosbykime.com / Local Real Estate Market and Home Value Report https://hmbt.co/bT7qRJ Financial Intelligence https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSc0R5pjHIAPguZ5GDEB-fTbGJXKpWK3coK9Khymv_GTWkMnyQ/viewform?usp=send_form https://www.onereal.com/vito-scarnecchia-1 Willow Glen's five most expensive homes https://youtu.be/3A_E2ck0ePg

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