Are we headed for a REAL ESTATE CRASH?

 






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Introduction and Market Crash Claims


Guys,


the last couple of weeks, I've been seeing this chart that I showed you a minute ago here this chart doesn't mean. What? All right. So this guy's going around Steve Burns at S Joseph Burns.

He's going around telling people that the market is


Going to crash because, right now, foreclosures or delinquencies are at an all-time high. Oh my God. And here's the thing. 


Analyzing the Delinquency Rates Chart


I got a chance to take a look at this chart. Let's take a quick look at it. And when, at first glance, you're seeing Freddie Mac, serious delinquency rates, Freddie Mac, January 31st, midpicks, whatever the hell that is.

And it's worse than it was in 2008. You're right. It absolutely is, but it's not for single family homes. It's for multifamily homes. Where is it? I gotta find it here somewhere. It's rates, multifamily, mid price. Multifamily. It's that's duplexes and fourplexes and stuff. 


Multifamily Homes and Overbuying Issues


Yeah, because people overbought them because people on the internet teach other people how to sell residential real estate and in a performer.

Let me explain this to you. It's a performer. They sell a million dollar property for 1. 5 million saying, if you get the rates, the rental rates up for this fourplex. Up to say 1, 500 where they're really right now, they're 950 on average, each unit, your value would be 1. 5. So that's what we're selling it for.

Oh, and by the way, you have to get rid of the mold. You have to remodel the kitchen, you have to remodel the bathrooms, you have to remodel the front landscape, you have to do all this stuff on top of what it is. So during the firestorm, ignorant people went and bought these properties. Not being able to understand this because some real estate agents and some lenders be like, yeah, we can get this to it No problem.

We can get you into it. No problem, and they walk away and then you're left hanging holding the bag and now Those people are stuck because they can't afford to that. They overreached on the price And now they don't have enough money to remodel or, and that means you can't increase the value of their, the rent and some places have rent controls and some places have stop gaps so you can only increase the rent so much per year and the landlord, the previous landlord never did it.

So it's on the previous landlord that they were lazy and they never upped the rent. For those tenants because they were nice guys and they just sold it and they got sold and then the people who bought it got sold bag junk. So these multifamily properties are going into foreclosure and yeah, this is not just 1 to 4 units.

These are apartments too and I've talked to you about this before. Apartments on the grand scale of things are much more expensive than single family houses on the average and those are going into foreclosure because. Ignorant investors, mom and pop investors bought into, whether they bought into a REIT or they bought it themselves or what have you, they bought a bag of goods.

And that's what we're having here. Not single family homes. 


Single Family Homes Delinquency Rates


Let me show you this right here. This is single family homes right here. Boink! This is 2008. This is where delinquencies went up. And I hope you can see my, I hope you can see my mouse, but down here in 2024, 2025, it's picking up just a tad bit, but it's nowhere near anything detrimental.

It's not what Steve Byrne said. So always be careful about this. I saw this on the YouTube. I saw this on the Facebook. I saw this on, I saw this on Tik TOK and I kept seeing it. And it really bugged me because. This guy's going out and spouting untruths, right? Freddie Mac housing delinquency rates are now higher than 2008.

For multi family, totally different. Single family residential mortgages booked in domestic offices, all commercial banks. We're always going to have foreclosures, right? But it's nothing horrible like we saw in 2008.

Could we still go into a foreclosure boom? Yeah, absolutely. The market could implode, the economy could implode, we can go into World War III, we're already verging on it right now, right? Who knows what's going to happen? Right now, I don't see it happening. It could tick tomorrow, right? We could be in 2006 right now, and see it going, going up.

That could absolutely happen. Don't think that, don't think twice about that. It could absolutely happen. But right now we don't see any indication that foreclosures are going to be a problem. In 2020, that was the COVID issue. And those foreclosures got solved because you were given time to get that solved.


Cupertino House of the Week

So enough said Cupertino house of the week. This is a brand new listing four million dollars Not my listing Bellevue Ave five bedroom four bath 3, 500 square feet built in 1975 These are homes that I looked at when I was a kid and I fell in love with them. They were gorgeous They were out of my league at that time again.

That means they still are I lived over here By DeAnza. That's DeAnza right there. I live right here. Around Stevens Creek Boulevard, Carmen Ave. So this is up the hill. This is where Deep Cliff Golf Course is. This is up the hill. And, in the foothills. And, let's take a quick gander at these pictures here.

I'm gonna move me over to the right.

So yeah, slightly updated still with the same 1975 architecture and look and feel, maybe they upgraded in the eighties or the nineties, but it's Cupertino up in the hills. Everything up in the hills is way more expensive, and I'm glad that they actually did a floor plan for you because you get to see what you're buying

It's nice, and again, it's 2, 500 or 3, 500 square feet. 



Willow Glen House of the Week





Willow Glen House of the Week, Newport Ave, not my listing, 5. 2 million, 6 bedroom, 5 full baths. Stay tuned because we have an awesome luxury home that I want to show you. He said sarcastically, 3, 500 square feet, built in 1900, meaning it's over 100 years old.

On almost three quarters of an acre, and it's right here, right by Lincoln Ave, walking distance to Lincoln. Let's take a look inside. 94 whole pictures. I love the fact that it takes 94 pictures to show how much five million dollars is worth. And of course, there's 15 pictures of the outside before you get inside.

Nicely manicured, old Victorian style, even though it has a brand new kitchen.

Tastefully upgraded, sure. I like the fact that they're using the wallpaper to accentuate the fact that it's an older house. It's kinda nice. You got a laundry room with a bed in it.

I don't know about that. That looks like it's a basement. Maybe it was a garage at one time.

Let's see if they actually spent the time and energy to have, give you a floor plan. Nice. They did. It's nice that they did that. Wow. Lots of moving parts here. Looks like it's a Winchester mystery house kept keeps going. Downstairs. That was a basement. Here you go. A lot of floor plans, three car garage, maybe a four car garage.

It's nice. There you go. All for 5 million, six bedrooms. I don't know if I'd call that a basement, a bedroom. 


Luxury Home of the Week



Here's your luxury home of the week. No idea why they would put 30 million. I have a guess that this is a typo, but first road, not my listing. This. Little five bedroom, three baths, 1, 100 square foot, 1920 square feet, or built in 1920 1, 165 square feet, but it's almost two acres, which is why I think it's really 3 million.

Here's Pierce road. You're in Saratoga and Cupertino border and. Yeah, I don't know if it's 30 million.

Yeah you're buying the land so you can develop into here 1, 2, 5, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22. So you can develop it for a mere 30 million dollar purchase of two acres. If they let you do that,

I'll pass on that. Thank you very much. If you're thinking about selling your house, download the home inspection checklist, get you started today and call me. I will give you all my handymen and landscapers and painters and plumbers, and we'll get you started, get you ready to go. 


Bay Area Weekly Sales Report



12 Bay Area County, weekly sales report.

Again, we're at 1. 9 billion in 10 weeks. Not too shabby. That's just for Santa Clara County. Alameda is out of whack right now. They're at 232 percent over list price from last week. Their numbers are completely off. So somebody did something wrong. Remember this is a human run business. We input all the data ourselves and the reports are coming in this way.

So somebody did a typo just like we did here, right? This one was 30 million, which really should be. I don't know, maybe 3 million to San Mateo. You're looking at 200. 5 4 million where Santa Clara has always chugged along just under San Mateo at 2. 3, 2. 4 million. And we have 296 new listings this week of them of the 1, 848 listings we've put into market.

1, 000 of them are already in contract and we put 187 into contract just in the last seven days. And I did something new called the months of inventory and the months of inventory will give you an idea of ups and downs because I do that every Thursday. I show you months of inventory, but these are monthly goals.

And I figure I can do this every week so you can see the plus and minuses. And eventually I'll show you a graph that makes sense. There you go. All right. 


Conclusion and Sign Off


I'm off to the gym. I'm Vito with Abitano. Thanks for watching. We'll see you out there.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiP41bXXA0E


Vito Scarnecchia

Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad

DRE#: 01407676

408-705-6817

Vito@abitano.com

Update your home value: https://hmbt.co/bT7qRJ      

FREE DESKTOP APPRAISAL https://www.propertyrate.com/agent/vitoscarnecchia

If you are moving ANYWHERE in the world - Let me know! I know a LOT of AMAZING Agents!


🔴 Willow Glen's five most expensive homes https://youtu.be/3A_E2ck0ePg


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