Are we headed for a REAL ESTATE CRASH?

 





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Are we headed for a REAL ESTATE CRASH?

Introduction and Technical Issues


Let me get this thing going here, sorry I'm a little frazzled. Because my audio didn't pop up last time and it pissed me off. All right. 


Market Crash Concerns


Let's hope this works Okay are we headed towards a crash? I don't know. I don't think so not here maybe in the other parts of the country and we'll find out a little bit more As we go through this, but these stories are popping up.


I just watched this guy on Saks Realty and they're talking about CFP B if it gets gutted, then that could screw up a lot of things. CFP B is a governing body or a regulating body for the interest, of the mortgage industry. And they have to make sure everything is, the Dodd-Frank and all these other things are done so that, we are protecting the consumer and.


If Dodge Doge collapses this organization, maybe this will do it, but it's not just that it's all about the politics, et cetera, and I don't get into that, which is why I just watch it, but I don't really listen to it. A lot of it. 



Investor Home Purchases Decline Slightly Nationwide, Drop Significantly in Parts of Florida

Investor Impact on Housing Market

Talks about the fed rates and the housing affordability and, they're saying that investors are only 15 percent of the problem of the homes that were bought in 2024, but. In certain areas, there's, they're buying more like in Florida, they bought more over the last four or five years, more than 15 percent like in Austin and places where there was massive growth investors flocked to it and made it hard for people to buy a first timer, a new home buyer homes because.

They just bought it cash versus, first-time home buyers buying FHA with three and a half percent down. It was just, it just made it more difficult. So these guys right here are saying that investors are slowing home purchases just like everybody else, but it's also pointing toward Florida. 


Regional Housing Issues


It's not just Florida. Florida is having problems because they're having the HOA problems, but they're also having hurricane and insurance problems. And just like in California with the wildfires, some people are just walking away. Saying I'm done with Florida because it's just getting hit every year with mass, massive hurricanes.

And I'm just not, it's not fun for me anymore.

Probably want to go to Houston or wherever to enjoy the subtropical environment, or maybe the Caribbean islands somewhere, but they have hurricanes too. So there's never a perfect thing, right? So Scotsman guide is news. Media outlets talk about the mortgage industry, and they talk about what's going on in just interest rates and CFPB and all these other things that are going on for any Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, realty times are more toward us.

It's more of a consumer-facing product of mag. Magazine or media outlet. And they're saying the same thing. 


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Investors are slowing their home purchases just like everybody else

Interest Rates and Market Predictions

Home purchases declined slightly nationwide. That's because rates have been high for so long. Last week rates went down. So maybe that'll change it. If we do go into a recession, that means things will reset. That means rates will come down slightly, probably not to 3%. Definitely not down to fou, and definitely not a definitely, never say, but maybe five and a half, 6%. That'll be the new norm. And with that, more buyers will hit the market, which means demand goes up, competition goes u,p and prices go up.

So that will. Not be the greatest thing for home buyers but fits home sellers. Okay. 




Cupertino Home of the Week 

Cupertino House of the Week

Cupertino house of the week. This one right here, Hyannis Port, is not my listing 3. 2 million, three bedroom, two and a half bath, 2200 square feet built in 1963. And the best thing about this, which isn't really all that great is it is facing Kennedy junior high.

And I think it's on the corner. It's on a corner. No, I think it's a second house. Yes, the second house is from Bob, and Bob is a fairly busy street. It's a major artery to get all this, all these people onto the freeway. So there you go. And then take a quick look at this, these houses here, or these pictures.

This is nicely updated. It looks like somebody lived here for a while and updated it to their looks and feels. I like the kitchen. I'm not really great with gray, it's nicely deck. It's nicely adorned. The cabinetry looks nice little accent walls and a purpose-built room for the office.

Nice, I have the same tile, but that one's done better than mine.

Nice little pergola or sunblock. It has a nice little heater built in. That's cool. I like that idea. But yeah, there you go. And your neighbor has a, your neighbor has a pool. That's the best way to have it is to become friends with your backdoor neighbor and let them put a gate into your Backyard fence here.

And then you can use their pool. Okay. Let's see. Blew it is still on the market. 





Willow Glen Home of the Week

Willow Glen House of the Week

This is Willow Glen's house of the week. Not my listing six bedrooms, six and a half baths, 4, 500 square feet, still 4. 5 million. This thing is not selling and the reason why is because it's overpriced. And we talked about this, in my last video and I tried to get video or audio on the reason why it's not selling is overpriced for the area. Even though it was brand spanking new built in 2024, they took it probably overpaid for it. An old house, like an old, smaller thousand-square-foot house. And they tore that down, put this huge home on it.

And now they're trying to sell it for profit. And that's why they're stuck at 4. 5 because they don't want to lose money. So there you go. 






Luxury Home of the Week

Luxury Home of the Week

The luxury home of the week is lupine, not by listing 25 million, eight-bedroom, nine and a two half baths, 10, 000 square acres, 10, 000 square feet, and almost two acres built in 2008 and this thing is gorgeous guys. Got to look at this thing. A little bit too many photos for my taste, you get the box Brownie background with the nightscape. Yeah, I'm not a big fan of the silly backgrounds, but there you go. But this house is just gorgeous. It has a wine cellar, has I think a pool room, has a movie room. Look at that. It has your waiter, your butler waiting on you. Nice. It has a workout room and a huge bathroom.

And then there's your wine cellar, tennis court, and basketball court, and a four-bed, four-car garage for your Teslas. Here you go. Okay. And then this right here, we'll go into it real quick. 


Bay Area Weekly Sales Report

It's a 12-month or 12 Bay Area County weekly sales report. Alameda came back down to normal numbers. Remember last week I was showing you that these numbers were out of whack, so they're coming back.

So don't pay too much attention to this. We have. Almost a thousand sales year to date. And last week we had 146 in Santa Clara County. We're still the second most expensive place to live in the Bay area. And in the contract, we have 1, 264. Of what we have this year so far, we have 2000 new listings for sale, right?

Inventory is catching up, but we still need to be at about 2000, 2000 homes for sale at any given time for it to be a balanced market. So we're still underwhelmingly low. We're at about a thousand homes. I think it was 900 last week when I looked at it, this is an alarming little number right here, but it's only because.

These numbers will fluctuate every week at the beginning of the month and at the end of the month the numbers tend to Smooth out but because we're in the middle of the month first third of the month these numbers are jumping up because it's assuming that there's a certain amount of Homes for sale at any given time.

So these numbers will smooth out just so you know, so don't go get all freaky It's 23 months in Santa Clara County, we're at 7. 2 months. We're at a buyer's market. No, it has to be a buyer's market for three months, which is a six, six months inventory for three months in a row for it to become a buyer's market.

So don't freak out. These numbers will fluctuate every week because the amount of new homes go on sale at the beginning of the month and then it flattens out. So just don't worry about that too much. 


Conclusion and Sign-Off


Alright, that's it for now. I hope the audio worked. I'm Vito with Abitano. Thanks for watching.

We'll see you out there.











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Vito Scarnecchia

Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad

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408-705-6817

Vito@abitano.com

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