Mortgage refinancing rises as rates fall, but many prospective buyers remain sidelined
Mortgage refinancing rises as rates fall, but many prospective buyers remain sidelined.
Daily mortgage rates dip to 5.99%
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Mortgage refinancing rises as rates fall, but many prospective buyers remain sidelined.
Rates Dip Below 6
Mortgage rates hit below 6%. First time since 2022. And yet buyers kind of sat on the sidelines. Refinances sat on the sidelines. Let's take a look inside here. Yep. Mortgage rate, mortgage refinancing rises as rates fall, but many prospective buyers remain sidelined because housing affordability, not much we're gonna be able to do about that.
That's a tough thing.
Affordability and Supply Crunch
The biggest problem that we have is not investors. It's not the interest rate, not the cost of houses, it's the lack of buildings or houses being built. It's been like that for 30 years. And when you have low supply and high demand, prices go u,p and it makes it unaffordable for many.
And that's where we are right now. So, unfortunately, that's not much you're gonna be able to do about it outside of a windfall, maybe winning the lottery or getting some money from your parents. But if you're. If you're a borrower, if you're a buyer right now and you're struggling, it's not gonna get any easier.
Crash Talk and Buyer Hesitation
Earlier this week, we talked about the potential of the housing market crash. I've been hoping for that since 2008 2012, because that's when buyers got to buy houses. But when the market does crash, then there are more investors hitting the market. So. What's the real answer here? Purchase applications were down over, over the week, but were 12% higher than a week before now.
Daily mortgage rates dip to 5.99%
Weekly Rate Moves and Uncertainty
Look, we're gonna go into the market on the interest rates and show you where we are right now. Rates have gone up since last week, so that's also part of the problem. But we also get people who get skittish when war is on the horizon. And because of what Iran did over the weekend, what we did back to Iran, et cetera, however you wanna look at it.
But people get skittish, oh, we're gonna go to war. Something's not, we're gonna have an election. I don't know who's gonna be the president. If he becomes president, I'm not going to buy a house. People don't care. You know, if you get so sidelined that you think the news is going to affect the housing market, you're sadly mistaken because a lot of people don't care.
A lot of people just keep their heads down or notice the grindstone, and they buy houses,s or they sell houses. So I get it, it does slow things down for us, but it is what it is, and there's nothing you're gonna be able to change about it. The arm stayed above 8%. We'll go into that in a minute, right? Existing home sales, we're going to look at inventory as well.
It's starting to pop up. The month supply was up to 3.7 in January, which is crazy considering December went down so far. Rates are not quoted at 6.34 for a gumbo stop and 6.12. Well, Vito, you said, well, this is this week, this last week. You look. Last week we got down to 5.99, so I'm not lying. Just rates go up and down.
Should have refinanced last week, right? I had two people call me and say, Hey, I'm going back into the market now because rates are below, but now the rates are above. So what's gonna happen? We'll see, I think we're just gonna have to time it and just hope and pray.
How to Buy Down Rates
But here's the bottom line, right?
You can get your rate down to 5.5%, no matter what, 3.7 5.375iff you pay points. This is obviously for two, $400,000, $500,000 home with a 20% down payment. If you, let's see, I don't know. The average price in Santa Clara County is 2.4. Let's say that you have excellent credit. You can get a 30-year fixed and go 9 5 1 2, 3.
And let's go. Include FHA, include VA, include USDA. Yeah, let's get rid of those, 'cause not very many people do that.
I wonder what happened here. 20%.
There we are. Five and a half. Five and a half. So you're looking at five point half percent. You're still below five 6%, right? You have to buy a point and don't worry about it. We can work with the seller and get some points, et cetera. Do it now before it gets hot. I don't know if the market's gonna get hot or not, but it is what it is.
Bay Area Inventory Snapshot
February numbers are out. They're right here for you to take a gander at. They're in my blog if you wanna spend more time on it, but if you look. The numbers are still going down a little bit. This is months of inventory. It's good months of inventory are going down. That means supply is being sucked up, and everything we look at is going down.
It's the same thing here for Santa Clara County. This is for 12 Bay Area counties, and this is Santa Clara County. For the most part, everything's going down except for, I think it's San Martin, but everything is going down, and we're all below, except for San Martin, below four months. So we're nowhere near a buyer's market.
Haven't been. Buyers are being picky, and they know that. We know that. We've known that for the last couple of years, and that's okay. So there you go. That's it.
Spring Outlook and Wrap Up
I think we're gonna have a good month, a good couple months, I think March, April, May are going to come back. I think we'll see prices stay nominal.
I think they're gonna hover around 6%, which is a lot better than 7%. Not as good as 2%, but it is what it is. And I think buyers are itching to buy and sellers are itching to sell. And I think if we price things correctly, we let the buyers determine what the pricing is worth. Get a lot of competition out there.
Prices will still stay, still stay nominal. All right, that's it for now. Thanks for watching. Have a great weekend. In my blog, I have a, uh, open house curated so you can click on that and see what open houses are available this weekend. We'll see you out there.
Inventory vs Sales
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