This Week's Winners and Losers - 12 County Bay Area Real Estate Report



 


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Vito Scarnecchia,
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Market Update Kickoff

 

Morning. Lots of talk about a lot of stuff going on in this market, and it is crazy. The first thing we're gonna talk about is that mortgage rates are jumping back. Yep. It's true. Not something that we like to hear, but it is what it is.

We're stabilizing this market because 'buyers' demand just isn't where it needs to be, but inventory isn't where it needs to be. And we'll go into that in a minute. So just hang on. And also we're gonna talk about, yeah, the. Santa Clara County is screwing over you as a property owner, and we'll talk about that in a minute, too.





Mortgage Rates Back Above 6
Alright, mortgage rates jump. Back up above 6%. We knew this was coming, right? I mean it, we knew this last week, but here's the reason why, right? We need to stabilize the market. We need to stabilize buyers and sellers, not just on this, on real estate, but it's also on the car market, short-term loans, credit cards, and consumer, and everything to beat inflation.

Here we are, right? Mortgage rates rose to 6.11%. On average, this is not. We talk about this every Thursday. This is undisclosed. It's what is being published. It's not what you qualify for. So you can drop points, you can do all sorts. You can have excellent credit, an excellent job, an excellent down payment, and that rate might come down a little bit.

For the most part, it's 6.11 and the main. 

Why Rates Are Rising

The problem is the Iran War. And luckily, today I'm hearing rumblings of the US and Iran talking things out. Maybe we'll see what happens. But the cost of oil is going up. The cost of everything is going up.

Which is funny because I also heard somewhere that three to 5% of our oil comes from that region. And that's pretty much it. So this is not really about us. This is about the global thing. I could be wrong, and if I am, please let me know. I'm always willing to learn, but a lot of things are happening.

Buyers Are Picky Now

Pending home sales are improving despite higher home-buying costs. Yes. We have itchy buyers that are ready to go, but they're still being persnickety. They're still being picky about what they're buying.

 

Air Conditioning Adds Value

You can't have a house without air conditioning. Try to compete with a house with air conditioning. On average, I see it go anywhere from 60 to $120,000 over list price. On average, with houses, on the sales price, on houses with and without air conditioning. It's an easy ROI improvement.

Easy. Can you trust it? No. Is it based on everything else inside the house? Absolutely. Houses will be sold without air conditioning. Just not a premium, and houses without air conditioning will sit on the market a little bit longer because houses without air conditioning tend not to have maintenance done to them regularly.

And also, they don't tend to have higher upgrades regularly. So how can you compete with a house that's completely turnkey with air conditioning, with a brand new kitchen, with a brand new bathtub, a bathroom? So you don't, so you see the correlation isn't rough, but it's pretty much set in stone. If you don't want to invest in air conditioning, which costs $10 to $15,000, you're going to stand to lose 60 to $120,000.

Here's your weekly, yada yada, the list. The link to this is in my blog. You're very welcome to go to it. I'm not gonna spend a lot of time on it. 





Cupertino House of the Week
This is Cupertino House of the Week, and this is Scenic Boulevard.

$3 million, not my listing. Four bedroom, three bath, 2,500 square feet for a measly $3 million, built in 1978. Obviously, it's been updated, and it's down by Deep Cliff right here. Monte Vista High School is right here. That's Blackberry Farm. I used to go up here in Linda Vista Park and hang out and do what you know teenagers do.

But this is a beautiful house right up in the hills. You are going to be playing, paying fair plan with this 'cause it's up in the hills, it's in the fire zone, just so you know. But if you can afford a $3 million house, you can probably afford a fair plan. And I like the fact that they did the floor plan, the fair plan.

I like the fact that this agent did this. They did professional photos for 3 million bucks. Yeah, you better be doing that, right? Nice that you did the floor plan. All right, and there you go. 






Willow Glen Pick and Transfer Tax
Okay, Willow Glen House of the week. This is Iris Court, not my listing.

$2.3 million. This does qualify for the San Jose High tax thing. When you sell this, it's going to cost you three to four times more than what it used to, versus a house in Cupertino for the same thing, where there's no transfer tax.  San Jose, two bedroom, two bath. 1600 for $2.3 million.

There you go. A boy and I like this because it's walking distance to Lincoln. You can get toasty drunk at any restaurant there. The tavern. Yeah. Anywhere you go. 






Luxury Listing Tour
And this is Luxury Home of the Week in Diablo Canyon, CA, Arroyo, not my listing, but let's take a look inside it.

$22.5 million, five-bedroom, seven and a half baths. 8,900 square feet on one and a half acres. Built in 1918. And obviously, this one's been updated, and it's within the country club as well. Yep. And let's take a look inside a gated community park-like setting, gorgeous everything. Geez, this is awesome. Look at that kitchen. Everything about this is opulent. This is beautiful. The only thing that's missing is a helicopter pad.  I don't know. 

Off-Market Listings Controversy

How do we market your house? There are a lot of different ways, but one thing I want to talk about really quickly is that there are a bunch of lawsuits going on.

Zillow is being sued by Compass, and it's a bunch of positioning for all this other stuff about coming soon. Basically what it is, off market listings, and those are not traditionally, they were not allowed. Based on what the NAR National Association of Realtors wrote in our code, we aren't allowed to do coming soon.

And all of a sudden, we can do coming soon. And now Compass is coming soon. And so does everybody else. And here's the problem. Let's say, just say that there are three companies out there, right? And one of them's Compass, and the other one's ReMax, and then the other one is Century 21. So that really doesn't matter. So that all gets consumed into this one site, but it doesn't go on the MLS. Wait, what do you mean? Coming soon, you're supposed to post it on the MLS, saying, coming soon. Do not show. We call it members only, do not show, or show. And that adds to it; it's just really convoluted.

The bottom line is, explain to me how that helps the seller. It doesn't help the seller one bit. So I don't do the coming soon game. When I worked for Compass, I tried it once. I didn't like it because what's really trying to happen is here is Compass. Offers exclusive homes to people in their environment, in their ecosystem.

So if you're exclusive to Compass and you sign a buyer broker agreement with a Compass agent, then you get access to that. But not everybody signs an exclusive buyer broker agreement with a Compass agent. So how do you know that that house is being marketed correctly, and how do you know that every buyer in the entire world wants to buy that house?

Is going to see it. They're not going to see it unless they have an agreement with Compass. So it helps Compass, it helps the agents within the Compass and Century 21, and anywhere, wherever it's called an ecosystem. Selfishly, and I don't have a problem with that. That's the job of the stakeholder of the CEO of anywhere.com or whatever they're called to make sure that they maximize profit.

But at the end of the day, how does that help the seller? See, what I do is my job is to make sure that you, as a homeowner, when you go to sell your house, you maximize your profit, not necessarily a profit of my masters.

And that's the problem with going with these big, huge companies, and I don't have a problem with it. Outside of the fact that it doesn't help me and it doesn't help you as a homeowner, it helps them. It helps Compass, it helps Century 21 make more money. Great, good for them. My job is to make sure your home gets sold to the highest and best.

And I don't know how being a Compass exclusive or off-market home sale, I'll show you in a second. How does that help you as a home seller? You're not exposing your house to the entire market. Now, I want you to watch this real quick. This talks about how when you're on Zillow, Redfin, or any other aggregating lead site, these are lead generation sites.
With Homes.com. If you click on that and it's my listing, you're going to contact me. You're going to contact me directly. I am not gonna try to sell you on anything.

Your job is to get in. You, as a home buyer, want to know information about that house, not necessarily get sucked into buying it or being pressured into buying it. I'm not a car salesman, right? My job is to sell your home, not suck in as many buyers as I can and try to convert them. 

That's not how that works. So let's watch this real quick. 

What is going on? 
People love how the new Homes.com helps 'em get quick answers about any property by connecting them to the actual listing agent. 

Oh, so I'm done. 
Oh, no, no, no, no. We're still not sure. Everyone knows that we're the only site that always connects you to the.
Agent rather than selling off your contact info.  
Okay? Yeah, I'm getting great exposure. 
Speaking of exposure, can we get him a hat? 
Ooh, what about a beret? 
Oh, ding don homes.com. 

Maximizing Listing Exposure

The point is that look. You wanna make sure that you maximize exposure to your product, your property, your home as large as possible. And as much as possible. How do we get and maximize the exposure? I know that my listing right now has, let's see, over performance reports.

Let's take a look. 47,000, 61,000 impressions. I'm getting exposure on this, right? I've had 13 Matterport views, my ads have been displayed 2200 times, and detailed page views have been touched. So I'm getting the influence, right? And when you look at that, that funnel that we talk about. I'm doing everything I can to make sure that you get exposed, your house gets exposed, right?


If you're ready to start talking about getting your house ready to sell, let's talk about landscaping, curb appeal, and simple repairs. This home inspection checklist walks through every little nook and cranny of your house to look for things that you can get done yourself or hire a handyman.





Santa Clara Property Tax Appeal Fees
South Bay property owners to pay fee for assessment appeals. This is Santa Clara County. Homeowners and businesses will have to pay hundreds of dollars in fees to challenge how much they pay in property taxes every year.
County defeats the purpose. Oh, hey, you're charging me too much. We'll prove. Here are the documents. Ah, you gotta pay me for me to look at it. Well, no, no, no. I, I, no, I'm paying you property tax. Well, no, their comp, their complication is, oh, we're a different department. We're not the assessor, we're the whatever.

It costs $300 for an AP appeal. Now, look, this doesn't matter to you right now. Because prices are continuing to go up. But if prices go down like they did in 2008 to 2012, the prices kind of dipped a little bit in most parts of the area, in most parts of the county. Then you can go back and say, Hey, my property values have dropped significantly.

I want you to reassess my property or take a look at it and get a temporary stay. $675 on commercial properties, right? And they argue that the appeals process takes up time. So if you have a problem with this, call your tax assessor and tell 'em that this is bullshit, right? Proposed non-refundable fees, 294 own homeowners and 675 commercial, are unreasonably high and would create serious issues.

Give them a call, tell 'em it's bullshit. Tell 'em to manage the $470 million or whatever that they take in. I think it's billions of dollars that they take in every year, and they can't, and they have to gig us for it; it's ridiculous. So go and complain and tell your tax assessor that's baloney.

Call your county supervisor, board of supervisors, right? Figure out who that is and log a complaint. Make this happen. Remember, I don't care what happens on the national level. I know the Iran things are going on, and it's hurting us a little bit. At the end of the day, this is where it impacts you the most. As a homeowner, as a business owner, as a, a, a citizen of Santa Clara County.

Bay Area Sales Report and Outlook

All right, here's the 12 Bay Area county sales report. Of course, Santa Clara County is the highest by three times or two times. Look at San Mateo, which is the next highest, and then the lowest is San Benito.

San Benito is actually, think about this guys. They're actually fixing the 1 62. I have to remember what it is. They're actually redoing it right now to make it better. They're expanding the ramp so that traffic can go in. I think they're opening it up to two lanes on each, each way, which is necessary for San Benito to become the next gold mine.

So if you're thinking about buying an investment property or just land, think about buying in San Benito in the downtown area, because I think that that is going to just explode here pretty quick. Just my guess. Right. I've sold many Homes in San Benito, and there's just not that Silicon Valley rush, but it's enough to say that if the infrastructure got better, I think that we'll see.

We'll see these numbers just boom out. Don't. Miss it. Okay. And then the average sales price. Of course, San Mateo is the most, and Santa Clara County is $2.4 million on average. Crazy,

Santa Cruz is 1.5, and Solano is the lowest at six points, $611,000. Median sales price is 571. So look, if you are complaining about affordability, go to Solano. I know you're gonna have to commute a little bit, but look, the difference is by five almost. San Francisco is still topping off their home values, the list price to sales price ratio. Why I think the standard is, look, let's just list it low and see what comes in, 'cause otherwise you're just messing around. You're on the market for 20, 30, 40 days waiting for the right buyer to come on. That was, create that buzz and get it sold, right?

Napa is a second-home destination, so you can buy a house there, go there for the weekend, drink your wine, and Uber back to your place. But that's just not. Something that people are doing anymore. Okay. And then year to date, we have 2,700 listings year to date.

Right now, our pacing is. We're closing. We're going to close 5,000 homes this year. And if you look at the pacing that we have compared to what's closed in the past, we're far below the necessary needs right now. This might jump up in April, May, and I'd love to see that happen, but I think we're gonna see another slow doldrum year.

And I know two, three weeks ago I said, Hey, this is gonna be a banner year. I think we're normalizing. I don't think we are. I think I was wrong.

All right. 

I'm off to the gym. Thanks for watching. I'm Vito with Abano. We'll see you out there.

 


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Vito Scarnecchia
Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad
DRE#: 01407676
408-705-6817
Vitos@abitano.com
FREE DESKTOP APPRAISAL https://www.propertyrate.com/agent/vitoscarnecchia
If you are moving ANYWHERE in the world, let me know! I know a LOT of AMAZING Agents!

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