Housing market standoff: Buyers walk and sellers pull listings | Inventory vs Sales

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Housing market standoff: Buyers walk, and sellers pull listings
Housing Forecast 2026: Mortgage Rates Remain Above 6%, but Affordability Improves Modestly
PROBATE AND ESTATE SALES
Open Houses this weekend, Silicon Valley Curated
Mortgage Rates this week 
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What you get for $2MM in Santa Clara County 
AIDA: Attract, Interest, Desire, Action 
What you get for $1MM in SILICON VALLEY 
Inventory And Supply Charts
FREE HOME BUYER CHECKLIST HERE https://abitanogroup.com/Homebuyerchecklist

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Introduction and Market Overview

Yeah, it's getting crazy out there. That's all I gotta say. It's just that people are taking their time. Everybody asks me, How's the housing market? How's the market? We're at a standstill right now. We're just at an impasse. Nothing is sparking this industry.

We're like the stock, the market that I follow is the US 30. And it's not doing much. Houses are being sold, right? Some houses are sitting on the market. Buyers are waiting unless they find a good deal, and so are you. And let's get into this real quick. Lemme see. Here we go.

All right. 

Housing market standoff: Buyers walk, and sellers pull listings

Current Housing Market Standoff

Housing market standoff: Buyers walk away while sellers pull the listing. Now, there are two quotes I want to say. The standoff highlights A disjointed market where buyers are emboldened to demand concessions, while sellers facing the prospect of selling at a loss are opting to wait on the sidelines for a more favorable environment.

Been saying this a long time now. It says roughly 53 home purchases. Canceled in October. Crazy, right? Because buyers want the option. They think they have the seat, but in reality, there's no massive sell-off right now. Like in the stock market, right?

On the supply side, sellers are retreating rather than capitulating to those new market dynamics. I'd rather stay here than sell at a loss. Buyers are saying I'd rather buy at my discretion at my terms than what the seller wants because the seller has had their way for the last 30 years or so.

Regional Market Insights

Now, this isn't everywhere, right? This is just in certain areas. Napa's taken a bath. San Benito is taking a bath. Santa Cruz County is taking a bath, but outside of the Bay Area, we're also seeing housing values go down in Austin and Florida. The boom has hit. We're waiting for things to turn around. And don't forget, sellers bought.

The sellers that are available right now, they need to move because they want to, because they're relocating death in the family, an elder, Whatever. The other ones, there's a very, very small supply, especially here in the Bay Area. We'll get into that. The supply is showing that sellers are not willing to make a move.

They might not have their forever home. They might not have the home that they want, but they got the home that they got because four years ago, we had a firestorm. And when prices are artificially inflated, people are less likely to move after that because the values go lower, and they're stuck in a 3.5% mortgage, and now they're looking at six.

 Housing Forecast 2026: Mortgage Rates Remain Above 6%, but Affordability Improves Modestly

Future Market Predictions

Mortgage Rates this week 

Housing forecast of 2026 from realtor.com. Mortgage rates will continue to average above 6% next year, but affordability will improve modestly as a typical monthly payment falls below 30% of a household's income. The forecast predicts mortgage rates will average 6.3 across 2026. Mortgage rates are. I quoted at 5.3 on a 30-year jumbo. 30-year fix is 6.2. If you're a veteran, you can get 5.86. That's without points. That's without looking at your credit and your income and your savings, et cetera.

Qued, Mutual of Omaha, if you buy a house in Silicon Valley today, the median price is about 2.4 million, and you can get it down. To 5.96 or 5.84. The interest rate is 5.625 and 5.75. So those are your monthly bill payments, right after a challenging period for buyers and sellers, and renters in 26 should offer a welcome, if modest, step towards a healthier housing market.

Everybody has been talking about wanting a balanced market. It is true. We want a balanced market. Sellers are still saying, I want a seller's market, but buyers are saying We want at least a buyer's market and if you want us to work with you, you're gonna have to work with us. And then forecast for home buyers in 2026.

 Easing mortgage rates, not so Much. The realtor economic research team expects household income to grow more than 3.6. That's the other thing. We're expecting household income to grow next year, not because of regulation or the politicians, 'cause they have no idea what it means to be a worker.

It means that the businesses will start. Paying people more. And how you do that is by changing jobs, right? Home. Prices continue to rise in 26, but incomes grow faster. That's actually a good thing. Think about this, right? We're expected to see a three to 4% increase next year.

We're used to eight to 10, maybe. Here we're seeing 12 to 16 in the Bay Area. So housing affordability is slated to go down. Meaning income is going to go higher, the economy's going to get better. That's if everything goes wrong,h RightWewe could see the Atlas Comet coming to hit us.

Forecast for home sellers, prices are gonna be a little bit less. We've seen our prices contract a little bit. It is just what it is. So there you go. If you want these links, they're in my blog. They're in the copy, in the description, so go ahead and do that. 

Open Houses and Listings

Open houses this weekend.

We have 124 houses for you to go look at if you want. The link is in. In the description and in my blog, this is free to get into. I don't ask you to check in or gimme your information. You just come in and take a look at it, right? And I looked at Far Ranch, which is in Saratoga. It's a beautiful house, a bedroom.

Three and a half baths on two acres, 6,500 square feet, built in 1984. This is $7.5 million, and it's here in the fire zone. If you can afford seven and a half, you can afford the fair plan. This ian s an old school, old deco, old, charming-looking home. So will this sell? Very possibly.

What you get for $2MMin  Santa Clara County 

There you go. Nice. And then what you get for $2 million is Adele Ave, not my listing. $2 million, three bedroom, two and a half bath. 1384 square feet. Built in 1958. This is in Mountain View, $2 million. This is a buy for Mountain View, 'cause typically you're at about $3 million.  And it's done up well. It's done with modern deco, and yeah, no floor plan. Unfortunately, that kind of sucks. $2 million. 

What you get for $1MM in SILICON VALLEY 

What do you get for a million dollars? This is on Coyote Road in 9 5 1. One in San Jose. Three bedroom, two bath, 1100 square feet. Built in 1958. Vast difference. This is also a filter road.

It's not a busy road. It's not like an avenue. It's a filter road to get to different places. It's not like the inside of a neighborhood, but everything looks like it's been updated and modern. So this is a buy a million bucks. Heck yeah. This one's gonna go fast. I hope they did a floor plan. Good.

See, there you go. A floor plan. It's easy, it's cheap. It doesn't cost that many agents. If you're not doing that, you're hurting your clients, period. So there are your three bedrooms. It's a very tightly packed house. You could probably build this out. I don't know why they would make this. The dining room is actually a family room.

Maybe that's how they built it out. But yeah, you can build this out and make it into a massive living room and then tie this into a fourth bedroom. 

Inventory Analysis

Inventory numbers are out. And in October, across the United States, is that 4.4? Let's see what that means. Alameda is 1.5 months. Santa Clara County is 1.3. We only have 700 homes for sale right now. We need to be at about 2000 to be at a balanced market. So that's why it's still a seller's market, but still buyers are saying that they're waiting, right? They're just not gonna sit around.

Same thing here in Cupertino, 1.4, Campbell's 2.9. We just don't have a ton of inventory right now, and you can see. Our inventory's going down massively. Well, these are months of inventory here. So Napa is the one outlier. It's 5.8. It's been hurting for quite a while, but that's 'cause everybody, there's no real major industry there.

It's more like second homes in Napa. And this is Santa Clara County. Single-family homes, months of inventory versus supply.

We're seeing it super, super low. If I did this for Napa, it would be up here. Okay. And then cities of Santa Clara, these are all the ones over here, Mountain View and Palo Alto, and all this. We're still well below the six-month mark. 

Conclusion and Sign-Off

All right, that's it for now. Thanks for watching. I'm Vito with Ano.

 

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Vito Scarnecchia

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