Housing Market Crossroads: Inventory Climbing, Sellers Holding Out

 



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All right. We requested supplies, and we received them. Supply is getting higher as we speak. 2004 was the peak of supply and demand. 2008 was a huge shocker, we had all those toxic asset loans, and ever since then, we've been climbing up and u,p and now we're at a plateau. Sellers are being very stubborn about pricing their house correctly. 

Current Market Conditions

The market is contracting; this article says that things are coming down. Here's the proof of post-pandemic highs, giving buyers more options.

Now that's true. 





Buyer and Seller Behavior

Buyers have been picky over the last few months. It's absolutely true. As a matter of fact, yesterday I showed you the expired number. I wanna show you this real quick. 






Local Market Analysis


Yesterday, I did several expired listings in Santa Clara County. Everything's shooting up. This is 2022, when rates went up.

This is the number of canceled, withdrawn, and expired listings in Santa Clara County, SFR, single-family homes only, no condos. I do this because Ryan Lundquist talks about different ways of looking at the market.

He's an appraiser in Sacramento, and I take that same. Concept the same topic and try to manipulate it. So it's down here in Santa Clara County and the Bay Area, if you look, we shot up as far as Withdrawn cancellations and expires. And that's three different categories, but they're all the same thing.
June, it fell a little bit. This number's probably gonna change because we're still early into June, so this might plateau out. And then once we get into July, we'll see the same thing go up a little bit. We're seeing frustrated sellers. Pull houses off the market, and home delisting spikes as sellers hold out for better offers.

This was July 8th, by Luke, by Bains, and Scotsman's Guide and Delists are outpacing overall inventory growth in the US housing market. But I just showed you Santa Clara, real estate listings. Noted that the listings increased almost 50% from the prior year, whicisre 35%.

Again, we were going into a slower pace, and this is, so what does this mean to you? 

Market Predictions and Advice

It means this is a great time to buy. Is it a great time to sell? No, but right now we're on a downward slope. I wouldn't say it's a crash like 2008. There's less competition right now, and what will happen is, sellers will start panicking.

Sellers will start pulling houses off the market. Sellers will start lowering prices, and then more competition comes in because buyers realize now's the time to buy. Next thing, you're competing for price. Because you have multiple offers on houses, this is exciting for me because I've been telling you this for the last four or five years. 

This is a time to buy a house. If you are in the market, 




Interest Rates and Their Impact
I know that rates are high, but when rates drop, they have to drop. ' 7% is just not sustainable right now. It's just keeping people out of the market. When rates drop, there's going to be a whole lot more buyers in the market.

If you buy today, you can refinance, then buy a house you can afford right now, because once the rates drop, there'll be more competition. And then we'll see a little bump. These are recessions right here. This is the case US National Home Price Index, and this only goes to 1988.
I'll show you in the next slide. This slide right here goes to 60 every time there's a recession, rates hold except for 2008, right? Even in the last recession in 20, we saw prices go up.

Prices continue to go up. Because we were seeing historically low rates. Now things are evening out, but prices are still going up. Why? Because people need a place to live. Real estate is still a great place to park money if you have it.

And here are the mortgage rates, right? We're at 7%. 7.76 was the highest that we saw in November 2023. Now we're down to 6.67, but you can drop that down to six or five and a half if you buy points. When it comes down, it's gonna come down maybe a quarter or a half percent. Rates are already down a quarter percent from March, April, and May.

So that means you're gonna look at 6.25, maybe 6%, and then you're gonna want to buy it down to 5.5% to bring buyers back into the market, make them feel good, as a rule of thumb, right? That's not the exact number. That's not science. I don't know if we're in a buyer's market or sales market, but I think we're in equilibrium right now.

We're in a balanced market. Keep that in mind. 





Detailed Property Insights

I. Okay, Wednesday, 90 days on market, we have 67 total listings that are on market over 90 days. I keep looking at this one on Woosley, which is right by my house. This one is 1.48558, and it's been on the market forever, and it's just not selling. The agent took their photos with the iPhone. If you're gonna 1.458 for a house, you should have professional photos. This is a three-bedroom, two-bath, 1400 square feet. So that's what you get for 90 days on the market.

Distressed homes in the Bay Area, there's 69 of them total. Everything here is condos and townhouses in Santa Clara County. It should not be selling for $800,000. It's a two-bedroom condo. It looks like it should be maybe $150,000, but it's a rental, right?

This is set up to be a rental. It's a single-family house, so $800,000 for a two-bedroom house? I don't know. I probably wouldn't buy that. I'd probably buy that for $300,000 and insult the bank. These are bank-owned properties.
Here's the San Jose snapshot, which we'll go into real quick, which is Wednesday, and we have 3,300 homes that are on the market over 40 days. We have 67 homes that are on the market. Over 90 days.


Bank owns, we have 69, and REO is all of California's 2,76. So, we're still not in the REO market. Just to give you some numbers, here's a chart for your review. Nothing is spiking, except for the inventory, which is currently 40 days or more.
Same thing with San Jose. We have our inventory, we just don't have the buyers. Thee market is telling us that buyers are being picky. They're waiting for rates to drop. And if they're going to buy a house, they're gonna get it for their price, or their condition,n or location.
Houses are still selling. We closed 70 houses last week. 69 went into contract. This is for San Jose in Santa Clara County. We had 142 going into contract. Not boggling numbers, but if you look at this number over the last couple of years. It's not bad.
It's still relevant. Not crazy numbers like we saw in 2020 to 2022, but I still say it's a good time to buy. I don't think prices are gonna come down. It might come down a little bit, but not enough to make it affordable.
Buy what you can afford, and when rates come down, you can refinance. That's what I've been telling people. That's it for today. It's Wednesday, July 9th. I'm Vito with Abano. Thanks for watching. We'll see you out there. 





Vito Scarnecchia
Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad
DRE#: 01407676
408-479-2427
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