Mortgage Delinquencies Increase Slightly in the First Quarter of 2025

 



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Mortgage Delinquencies Increase Slightly in the First Quarter of 2025 

Introduction and Mortgage Delinquency Overview

Good morning. Mortgage delinquencies increased slightly in the first quarter of 2025. What does that mean? Is the world falling apart? Is the sky falling? No. It's normal. It's all part of the configuration. Look, here's something you gotta look at here real quick. There we go. See, it's nice and big. It looks professional. 


Historical Context and Current Trends


This is 2008 all the way to 2012, and things started going back to normal in 2021. That's when COVID hit. So they just put a moratorium on that, and nothing's really changed. Yeah, things popped up, but they settled out, right? These are delinquencies.


If you don't pay your mortgage in 30, 90 days, then you go into a foreclosure process. But these are just. Basic, normal things. It's not anything to worry about. 




Mortgages 30–89 days delinquent


Understanding Mortgage Delinquencies

And the reason why I'm bringing this up is because we have something called Crash Bros. they talk about how the market is going to crash how the housing market is decimated and how this is a great time to okay, but look, these are the numbers, These are mortgage 30 to 90 day delinquents. From consumerfinance.gov and the CFPB, these are real, live numbers. This is Nationwide, and this is Santa Clara County. Bigger numbers are better. Okay, so what is this telling you?


We're actually headed towards a little bit of an uptick, but it's not anything crazyThesese are 30 to 90-day delinquencies. Santa Clara County is 0.3%. Of all the mortgages that are out there, 0.3%. Same thing with the United States.


All the way across the United States, 1.6 of the mortgages that we have are delinquent. Nothing compared to 2008, where we had 3.9. Is it a big jump? Yeah, but it's slowly going up. Mostly because affordability is out of the way and a lot of peoplewhot bought priced homes that couldn't really afford itweres they bought into the whole, bought the rate, noe the house, not the rate date, the rate, not the how.


The point is if you. Can afford a house. Buy a house. You might not get your forever house, but you'll get into a house and start building equity, which will help you walk into your life economically. And what I mean by that is you get to stop worrying about rental increases.


You get to stop worrying about being evicted or, hey, my landlord's selling the house, so I have to move again. Or, my refrigerator never worked right, or the dishwasher never worked right, and I can't wait for my landlord to come and fix it. You economically become locked into that rate, Good or bad. That's the new mortgage. Now, let's say that we're paying, $7,500 a month for the mortgage. Yes, you're paying more than what the rent would be, which is $5,000 for a four-bedroom house, but you also get to write off all that interest.




Delinquency Rate on Single-Family Residential Mortgages

Not all of it, but that's going up to $40,000 a year. And if you average that out, it becomes more affordable for you. You get to write off stuff, right? Now, these are delinquency rates and single-family mortgages. Booked in all domestic offices and all commercial banks, and we're still pretty low in Q1, 1.8% of all the mortgages that are out there.


Is it something to worry about? No. This is just another angle of looking at real estate and understanding where we're going as far as the market's concerned. 


Market Conditions and Buyer Behavior


Are we headed towards a recession, possibly? That was cooked in the books when we voted Trump into office. Whether you like him or not, I don't really care for him either way.


It doesn't matter. I don't vote on party lines. But you go down and figure out where the market's going, and yes, we're actually in a slow period right now. Rates are extremely high. We can't really get to the next level until rates come down.


We can't bring new buyers into the market until rates come down. We've begged and pleaded for the last two years for supplies. Now we have a supply. Our inventory is growing well; it's actually growing. Leveling off here in Santa Clara County, but we've gone from 400 units to 1300 units now. So it's a good thing.


We need to be about 2000 to make it a truly balanced market, but it's artificially balanced right now because interest rates are still high. We're at 1300 two years ago. We were at


700, February, 2024. It's just a year ago. We're at 700 and we're at 300. And change for single-family homes. Right now, we're at 600, so we've basically doubled our inventory, and yet the buyers are just out there being picky. Over the weekend, I had six showings on one listing and five showings on another.

They're taking their time. What is it gonna take to get the house? Do I have to bid over? They're saying, this is what I'm going to offer for this house. And the sellers are being stubborn, which, granted, over the last three decades, we've gotten used to sellers telling buyers what they want and getting it, and they're a little spoiled.


We're all spoiled. A little bit about that, right? Inventory is where it is. If interest rates come down, a half a percent more buyers will hit the market, and then it'll come back to the firestorm. So if you're selling your house right now and you're frustrated, I would just say Be patient.

Because rates should come down in September and you can do without what you want. I'm not saying it's going to, I said should.Iff we're in the political fray that we see on the news every day, may or may not happen, we may go until January,2026 before rates come down. Who knows?




San Jose Real Property Transfer Tax Increases to homes sold over $2.3 million. 


Been telling people this since, ay we, just increased our real property transfer tax in San Jose to $2.3 million. This is huge because. My talk about the Measure E idea was that it would stall homes from increasing over $2 million before July 1st of this year. Homes transferred at $2 million or more quadrupled their transfer tax or conveyance tax or whatever you wanna look at it, if it's over 2.3, now, 2.3 or over.


You now quadruple your transfer tax, which means instead of a conveyance w,hich is a dollar 10 per thousand, split 50/50 between the buyer and seller, it's now four times that, and it's supposed to go to housing affordability. And if you wantto  learn more about it, go to my blog, find this real property transfer tax thing, and the link is right there, you can read more about it and understand if it's actually helping people or not. It's up to you to decide that. 





Cupertino Home of the Week

Real Estate Listings and Pricing Strategies

Cupertino House of the Week, Two and a quarter million dollars. This is a townhouse, half plex duplex, four bedrooms, three and a half baths, 2,500 square feet.


Built in 1992 via Sorento, not my listing. And it's right off Homestead. And De Anza Boulevard. This is a pretty house. This is nice. The problem is that half plex, and why do builders do half plexes or duplexes?s If I could put eight single-family houses on an acre, I could probably put 12 units or six duplexes on. The same acre, so I can crush more houses into that same acre. And it's ultimately to the degree of the developer because they wanna make more money on each sale, and they want to have more sales.

If I can sell you a single-family house for a million dollars and I can only put eight houses on it, that's $8 million. If I could put 12 units or six duplexes on that same acre and I can sell it to you for eight 50, I'm making more money, if that makes sense. That's why half Plexus happens.





Willow Glen Home of the Week

So steer clear of those if you have to. They're a good option to get into your first home. Camino Pablo, this is Willow Glen, house of the week, not my listing. $2.75 million four-bedroom, three bath, built in 1972. Looks like it's a corner lot. Let's take a quick look at it. Yeah, on the market for 17 days, and they decreased the price.


The original price was 2.9. Now it's down to 2.75. They're not getting the traction that they want. When should you lower your list price? First, I argue that you should always list it lower. Bring the market to you. Attract the market. Don't be a market maker.r You're selling a luxury home like this one right here. If you're selling a house that's been updated and was built in 1972 or 195if, you may miss the market. And it's not attracting the traffic that you thought you were gonna get. You've overpriced the house. When you overprice the house, it's detrimental to the value of that house. Buyers ultimately tell you what your house is worth because that's what they're willing to pay. You overprice it, you're gonna get a trickle of zero, if not zero traffic into your house.


Sure. You're gonna get a ton of people watching you on Zillow, the MLS, and Redfi,butut the true KPI is traffic. People setting up appointments to see your house, if you put obstacles in front of them, that's another thing, but that's not what we're talking about.


I'm talking about pricing. If your house is overpriced and you get a trickle of people coming through, whether it's just showings or you have an open house, and a majority of them are neighbors. You are not doing anything for yourself. You've overpriced your house, and that's detrimental. I probably would've listed this at 2.5 and let the market bid it up.




Luxury Home of the Week

I know there's a lot of fear right now, but there's still selling within seven days if you price it right. Pacific Ave, luxury House of the Week. This is not my listing, which was two point $27 million, six baths, six and a half baths, 9,625 square feet, built in 1910. right by the Presidio, right by the Bay.


You get a lot of cool days, a lot of foggy days. Let's take a look at this gargantuan monstrosity of a luxury home. Wow, this is beautiful. Just wish it wasn't in San Francisco. I'm not a fan of going to SF., tThisis how the other half lives, guys. Look at this. That's beautiful.


Yeah. That deck is worth $27 million right there. All right, there you go. And then lastly, let's talk about the sales data for the entire 12 Bay Area counties. Nothing super crazy other than we were over $10 billion in less than half the year. In revenue. We're past the halfway mark, $10 billion in sales.


The sales volume this last week was $418 million. We closed 180 sales, which brought $418 million. The median sales price is $2.4 million in San Mateo. We have 240 new listings this week.


We're getting the inventory that we want. We just don't have the buyers coming in we still have buyers coming in, but buyers are being picky, right?

We had 139 houses going to contract this last week. If you look at Blossom Valley, this is the area I live in. We had eight complete closings this last week, the average sales price is 1.56.


If it's priced right, your house is going to sell at 4% over list price. What does that mean? You don't price it at market or above market. You price it just below about 5%, and then you should get your house done. When you look at averages versus location versus condition, you have to take that into account if your house needs upgrades.


Needs air conditioning, needs a new pool, needs a new roof. Hasn't had a new kitchen. You're not an average house. You're below average. And the proof of the pudding is if you're not getting traffic over the weekend or during the last week. The proof is that your house is overpriced, and the buyers that are out there have seen your house and decided to look at something else.


Months of inventory are jumping up right now because we're only in the halfway mark of the month. These numbers have come down quite considerably since last week. But these are the true indicator numbers right here, June, we're at 3.9, Santa Clara County. We're at 1.6.


Months of inventory. That means if we stop putting new houses on the market right now, we would rent out in 1.6 months. Napa, we're in a buyer's market, right? That's Napa right there. We've been in a buyer's market for Napa since January. Napa is a great place to buy a house.


If you're thinking about buying a house. For an investment purpose or whatever. That's where you want to go. You can do Airbnb, whatever you want to do. That's it for now. Thanks for watching. I'm veto with Abano. We'll see you out there. 



🔴 Gorgeous Custom Built Estate 1036 Ridgemark Dr


Vito Scarnecchia

Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad

DRE#: 01407676

408-705-6817

Vito@abitano.com

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🔴 Willow Glen's five most expensive homes https://youtu.be/3A_E2ck0ePg



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