Is Powell Leaving? Numbers Nerd Alert

 





Is Powell Leaving? Numbers Nerd Alert

Santa Clara County Highs and Lows

Los Gatos Home of the Week 

Santa Clara County Price Reductions 

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Is Powell Leaving? Numbers Nerd Alert


Is Powell leaving? I don't know. Who knows? Doesn't really matter. 

Impact of High Rates on Real Estate




The only thing that's really affecting me today is the rates. The Fed continues to keep rates high and their fear is runaway inflation.

Trump is saying he should quit 'cause he is too late to the game. However, over the last four or five years, he's done a lot to control inflation, supposedly. Whether you like it or not, he's kept inflation as low as possible. He's brought it down. Did he do it the way I preferred? No, but I'm not in charge, so who am I to complain?

The point is that rates still continue to be high, and it's affecting my income. it's hard for me to sell houses based on what values were 3, 4, 5 months ago. There's definitely a contraction coming not necessarily in Cupertino or Los Gatos or even Willow Glen, but in Blossom Valley.

Buyers are being picky. Now let's go through this. 





Current Economic Indicators

The current rate is 4.25 to 4.5. The next FOMC is July 29th, July 30th. Fed watch indicates a high probability, around 93% that theFedd will maintain the current range at this meeting. The Fed is still projected to lower rates, a total of half a percent, two quarter-point cuts.

Powell stated that the Fed is in a wait-and-see mode. Monitoring effects. And by the way, you can go to my blog, and all of this is linked for you. Trump wants him out.
Whatever happens, happens,  




Market Contraction and Housing Affordability

Have existing home sales slumped? I don't know if this is actual closed sales or homes that are for sale. They have definitely slumped now.

This was part of the matrix we put together three, four years ago going into a recession knowing that home sales will slump and they definitely have nationwide. Housing Affordability Index is now lower than the a hundred percent nominal, Anything below a hundred percent makes it less affordable.

Anything above makes it more affordable. So March of 2025 across the nation, housing was affordable federal fund effective rate is still four and a quarter Not as low as it was, but it's low. And we're slashing prices, right? Well, not slashing prices, unemployment.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/jul/flash-report-june-unemployment-rate-falls-more-people-find-jobs

It's not a bad thing. right now, 4% of the nation is unemployed, GDP says that we're not so bad, right? All items, 8.86, that was because of the inflation and everybody needed to buy goods and money was cheap.

So now we're coming back down to normal. So inflation is back down to normal. We want it 2%, but we're at 3%. So, plus or minus, I think we'renot doingt so bad. Powell's fear is that this would spike if we raised or lowered rates. If we lowered rates, money would become cheap again, and prices would inflate.

I don't know if that's true or not. 



Real Estate Market Trends

However, when we look at rates, the job market, and the stock market. Inflation, GDP-CPI, all this other stuff, we're still seeing the stock market do great now. Overall, it's doing great. If we look at today, we're down 200 points, right? Same with the SP. We're at an all-time high, 6,200, but if we look at today, it's kind of going down.

Well, from where it started, three points. And if you listen to Crash Bros, I know I always talk about 'em, but this is one of 'em, and he's linked down below. There are plenty of 'em. He just happens to pop up on my YouTube all the time. He is saying that housing affordability is out there and being.

Crushed or decimated, but his job is to bring eyeballs to his YouTube channel so people watch him. So he's talking about all these outliers that are happening. Could it happen? It absolutely could happen. We could go into a massive recession tomorrow. I've been saying that for the last three years.

Before that I thought 2018 we were going to be in a recessionary period or a peak, a plateau. But the market kept on going and then COVID happened, which stalled for a little bit, and then the market just took off, which we saw inflation. Now we're bringing back down to normal and here we are.

So let's go. The numbers I'm trying to stay at the 500 800 foot view to understand just what's going on. Houses are still selling. We closed 149 homes last week.

We're seeing a huge amount of price reductions. My house should have sold for a million. Now I'm listing it at 900. What's going on? The market's contracting. And here's the thing. If your house is on the market for over 15 days and you still don't have an offer, your house is overpriced for today.

The market's contracting. It's nothing against your house. Or your agent. It's also the summer. When housing markets get slow. ppricecontract. So we're at the tail end. What happens if we don't see rates go down at the end of July?

Nothing. We're still gonna see the contraction happen. So we'll see September and then November, and then we'll be in 2026. In September and November, we'll see rate cuts. A total of 50 basis points or half a percent.

Two quarter point cuts by the end of 2025. That means if we don't do it in July, we're gonna do it in September and November, or we'll just wait until November and do a full half point. depending on the winds of change, the odds of March, we'll see the market accept a quarter point reduction.

Is that good or bad? Depends on where you stand. If you're selling, it's not great. If you're buying, it's great. This is a great time to buy. I know affordability is out the door, but buyers are being picky. if you're targeted and smart about what you're buying, you could buy a house with less money.

Or concessions or repairs, right? A concession. A repair is a concession, but there are a lot of things going on. So when money gets cheap, more buyers enter the market. Money's expensive right now, so there are fewer buyers in the market. But we know that buyers are in the market 'cause we're still closing 150, 130 homes a month on average in Santa Clara County.


let's talk about Los Gatos House of the week. This one is on market, 98 days. It's still at its original price. Why hasn't it sold? location. It's got a great location.

Let's take a look at it. It's not walking distance. I mean, you could absolutely hike to downtown Los Gatos, but it's closer to Saratoga Keto Road, so you're on a drive to get there, condition. This is a. Four bedroom, two and a half bath, 2,600 square foot house built in 1975 Montclair Road.

Not my listing by the way, and nothing against the agent or the seller, but it's the old Dutch style house, multiple add-ons to it. It's been updated nicely, white, nicely fresh. The Corry encounters look a little dated. You have some fluorescent going on, fluorescents are kind of a thing of the past, which screams dated, but also the finish of the cabinets.

I would've painted the cabinets white. Freshens up the house, makes it look a little bit less dated. this fireplace is screaming date, right? You have a nice, big, huge garage and because of the Dutchman style you have vaulted ceilings and the rooms.

Well, actually, that's one room, it looks like. Yep.


And let's talk about this It's a beautiful house. There's nothing wrong with it. It's a little dated. on the first 15 days, potential buyers are going to see it on the MLS, on Zillow, on their aggregate websites, right? And let's say that the pool of buyers out there that could afford a $3 million house is.
Probably not a thousand, but let's use a thousand after 15 days. Those buyers will want to take a look at this house. It goes from eyeballs to boots, to disclosures to offers.

Marketing right? Eyes on listing right here. Lemme open this up so you can see it. Eyes on listing. So this goes to the MLS and the aggregate sites. Thousands, right? More showings. 10 to 50, right? Out of those thousands of people will actually visit your house. And then the next KPI is how many disclosures you're going to see, how many people actually download the disclosures? My listings are still getting disclosure downloads. Over the weekend, I had five and six showings on my listing, More offers.

So that's the trickle-down idea of how your house gets sold. 






Understanding Real Estate Pricing
Now, let's say that your house is worth a million dollars and you think it's worth 1.2 million. If it's over the market of where people are willing to buy your house, you're only getting 5% of those buyers; of those thousand people, you're only gonna see 50 of them.
Okay. If you're at market value, you're only hitting 25, which means you're gonna get 250 of those buyers. If you're at 5% below, you're getting 50% of the buyers. The other ones below there, their bracket of range is probably too low for us to attract. So we really want to attract 50% of that market, the real buyers for that house.
If you're above the price. You're hurting yourself. If you're at market value, you're hurting yourself. If you market below 5%, right? 5%. If you're a million-dollar house, that's $950,000. You're gonna attract a whole lot more buyers, but Vito, what happens if my house doesn't go for what I think it's worth?
Your idea of what your house is worth isn't what a buyer thinks and the buyer. Is looking at hundreds of different houses online, and maybe 20 to 50 houses on the ground 
They're looking at these houses, right? And they're looking at, let's say, 50. And out of those 50, yours is the outlier in a bad way, because it's overpriced for the condition and location. Then you're gonna sit on the market and wonder why buyers are not coming. 98 days on market. No price change, right?

As an agent, what am I to do here? I can tell you that if you readjust your price, I would drop this down to two and a half and bring in buyers if you're really interested in seeing what the market holds today. Sellers fear that that's like the death nail. Oh my God, my house is not worth two and a half million.

It's definitely worth three and a half, 3.1, because just back in April, the market sold the house right down the street and about the same square footage for $3.1 million. Actually 3.25. So I listened to my agent. I dropped it down a little bit. So what's going on? The market's contracting. Okay, this is the Santa Clara County sales price average SFRs, Santa Clara County sales price median. Now look, March and April were the height of the market. Median-wise. May was the height of the market. Let me bring these to you so you can see them. Santa Clara County average. SFR no condo or townhouse, right?

This is 2025. Prices are dwindling. Prices are contracting all across Santa Clara County. May saw 2150. That's the highest median sales price in history in Santa Clara County for single-family homes. No condos. No townhouses. Why is it dwindling? Because rates are staying high.

The stock market's doing great. Inflation's down. The job market's doing better, the fact i, the rates. Remain high. They've remained artificially high for too long for us in the housing market to perform for you, saying this is what your house is, and people are on vacation, and the summer bbringss slower market, but the fact is, is that.

Houses are expiring. They're going outta contrac.t When I say outta contract, we're pulling a lot of houses back on. Market. Buyers are pulling out with new homes too, because there's a lot of fears of layoffs or there's a lot of fears of recession. There's a lot ofearrs of affordability, sothey'ree just pulling out.

Number of canceled, withdrawn, and expired listings. Santa Clara County, single family homes only, not condos or townhouses because I like to keep it baseline. We've had a huge number of, cancellations in May and in June we're still seeing 234. that resets every month, So I don't know what July is.

We're gonna see that happen quite a bit over the next couple of months. 2022 happened right when the rates went up. We went from two and a half percent, up to four, to five, to six, to seven. That's exactly when that happened. And then it went back down to normal because people got used to it.

But people are fatigued with the 7%. That's it for now.

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

That's a lot of talking, isn't it? All right, so now you kind of understand the mindset of the real estate. I'd love to hear your point of view. I try not to bring politics into this. I just try to show you the facts so you can make those decisions on your own. I'm not claiming that I'm right. This is just the stories and my little myopic view of my market, my industry, to help you understand real estate a little bit better. I hope this makes sense. Thanks for watching. I'm Vito with Ana. We'll see you out there. 





🔴  5 Cities Near San Jose | Moving to San Jose https://youtu.be/sDkdDq42vo8?t=46  

🔴 The Five Biggest Turn-Offs For Homeowners https://youtube.com/shorts/lwknH5DCS5c 



Vito Scarnecchia

Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad

DRE#: 01407676

408-705-6817

Vito@abitano.com

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🔴 Willow Glen's five most expensive homes https://youtu.be/3A_E2ck0ePg


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