Oil Prices Spike, Prompting Homebuyers to Hit Pause as Mortgage Rates Edge Higher
Oil Prices Spike, Prompting Homebuyers to Hit Pause as Mortgage Rates Edge Higher
Limit HOA power.
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Monday Market Jitters
Good morning. I feel like a Monday.
long weekend. Didn't sleep well. Still exercised, but here we are, Monday morning, and oil is crashing. The real estate market. Funny because five years ago, six years ago, I mentioned the fact that there are house cards, right? I'm not saying that this is happening right now, but it could very well be that our market could crash because of something outside of real estate.
Now, when I say the economy could crash because of something outside of real estate, the last big collapse happened because of the stock market and greed. But then it was all the toxic loans 'cause of real estate. So we kind of blame real estate because it's an easy redheaded stepchild to kick around. Right?
Oil Shock and Mortgage Rates
Let's take a quick look at this here. Oil prices spike. Prompting home buyers to hit pause. Mortgage rates edge higher. We got up to 6.6% last week, and now, if you remember, we were, we just bought 'em down at 5.999. Now we're back up to 6.6. Why? Because. Well, there were a couple of things, right? Iran War, everybody's freaking out.
Loan originations, meaning applications, slowed down. Home buyers took a little bit of pause, and there you go. Right there, right? So then what else happens? While buyers don't necessarily disappear, they hesitate, they freak out, and that's what's happening all across the US in the not-so-hot areas. Palo Alto, you know, those areas are always going to be hot because they're not, they're not subject to the norms of regular people. Those people have, and regular people have not. And what if you're trying to buy a house? In the Bay Area, which is already costly, and if you don't have 10 plus million dollars, you're struggling to find a house and make it affordable, right?
I have three houses for sale right now, and San Jose is 4.1% increase over last year. However, we're still seeing things slow down. Why? Because rates went up, okay?
Inflation and Price Stickiness
CPI in the indicator inflation comes in scalding hot in March. We pushed and pushed and got the market, got the economy back on its wheels, and it started spending, and that caused a little bit of inflation.
You saw it at the gas pump, i.e., E over here. You saw it in rates, you saw it in Butbut. The cost of eggs and toilet papers going down. Yeah, absolutely everything. Not will naturalize over time. It's just a normal thing. However. You're not paying 2000 prices right now in 2026. So prices have not normalized or come down.
They're subject to the inflation that we, we experienced over the last six years, right? So, the oil war, everything's freaking everybody out. So it's not that we're not spending, we're just not spending.
HOA Regulation Debate
Good news if you're in an HOA. And you know how I feel about HOAs? I'm not a big, huge fan of HOAs. And the reason is that the people who are in control are one, volunteers, two, power hungry, three, not really in control.
There's no regulation to subject them to keep terms and make it fair for everybody. Now, granted, the power-hungry tend to prey on the weak and the disenfranchised, or what? Or let's just say the ones that don't stay within the lines of the rules that they are governed by,y within the HOAI understand.
I understand both sides. My problem s,thatd I have friendwhoat manage HOAs. Their intent is to increase the cost of the HOA fee every year, and in California, they max out at 5%. There's no regulation outside of that. That's just kind of like a rule of thumb. There's no actual rule that I know of, and if I'm wrong, please send it to me.
Georgia Bill Breakdown
So I know Georgia is doing a new bill that will regulate the HOA industry, meaning that they have to be subjected to licensure, financial reports, everything. I like it. I like the idea of at least getting started, but what I wanna know is what's the point, right? To be fair to both sides, let's see what the point is.
What is the actual topic of this thing under the bill? Every HOA must register, blah, blah, blah. Place. Liens, a foreclosed bill, which garnered support from both parties. Now, if I were in an HOA, I'd be like, we do that every year anyway, so it's not a big deal. We'll just send the report to the state. And yes, we're, they're gonna get a fee, but what's in it for us?
What is it? How does that help the consumer, the owner of a house in the HOA, right? I've heard countless cases of people being taken advantage of by predatory associations. Can it do that? Will it do that? Will it save the owners of an HO or within an HOA from these aggressive predatory tactics? I don't know.
HOA Rules and Buyer Choice
And I understand the plight of the HHOA. I'm not a fan of HOAs, 'cause they do not; some take advantage of the situation that they're in. They go power hungry. I understand that.
But if you're buying a house within an HOA, you understand that you have certain rules and regulations that you have to fall under, fall in line with. Then, if you don't, then don't buy a house in an HOA. Which is why I chose not to buy a house in an HOA; however, I bought my parents' house, and that's in a retirement community, and so far it's not so bad.
If an HOA fails to register within the state, it will be barred from collecting fines, issuing liens, or Okay. I'm not calling myself a realtor anymore, even though I am a realtor. ' Yet when you ask what the governing board of the NAR does for the agent as well as the consumer, there's not really an answer.
Oh, we help them do this, and we help them do this. How does it? It's like when an agent charges you full boat, and they say, I work really hard for you. Exactly. Show me how you do that. I have a worksheet that shows you exactly what I do before we get started to justify why I charge you what I charge.
I'd like to see a little bit more about it and the five- 10 year look back on this and see what it really, how it really helps the consumer. Not the HOA. So there you go.
55 Plus Community Planning
If you're thinking about putting your parents into a retirement community or an adult community, an older adult community, 55-plus community.
There's some downsizing that needs to happen, some repairs that need to happen, and some hard questions that need to be asked. And answered before you move forward.
$2.6 million for a 1944-built, 1300 square foot four-bedroom, two and a half bath cottage on a 5,500 square foot lot. This is over here, Monte Vista and Kennedy are right here. Deanne's is right here. So this is my backyard where I grew up, but this is like a little cottage for $2.6 million. Let's take a quick look inside.
Five whole pictures. Look at that. So obviously, you're not buying it for the house, you're buying it for the land. 5,500 square feet. You're paying two and a half million dollars for the lot, and then you are gonna put one to one and a half million dollars on that lot to build into a McMansion. That's what you're buying.
There you go. If you're interested in looking, let's go take a look. This is.
Willow Glen Pricing Strategy
Willow Glen House of the week. The $2.2 million list price decreased. Why did I bring this one up? Because it's decreased in price.
Guys, I'm gonna tell you this a hundred times till I'm blue in the face, till you actually, actually, actually listen. You, as a seller, do not set the sales price. Yo,u as a seller set the list price, and if you list it too high.
If you list your house too high, it will not sell. If you list it low, and it could be five, 10, 15% below the price, you are going to get all the eyeballs you need to get your house sold, period. If you list your house 10% lower, you're still going to attract the high-end people, the people who can afford your house.
But you're bringing in traffic, you're bringing in things. I already got offers on my last listing. It's 1.65. This one right here. This listing right here? Yeah, my house.
We have 22,000 views on the advertising, right? Those are impressions. These are actual ad views. Search for results, Matterport views, and floor plan views. Remember all that stuff that's going into it. I already have an offer. I've had an offer for the last few days,s and I have a couple other offers coming in ' cause it's listed below where it's supposed to be.
I listed at 1.65. Comps are at like 1 8, 1 9 because I wanted to bring in traffic, and I brought in a ton of traffic over the weekends. So get your house sold quick. Don't be afraid. The list price, the buyers will tell you what your house is worth. Not you, not your agent, period.
Why Staging and Updates Matter
It's been on the market for 32 days, and it's on Boon, which is a busy street, and it's, look inside, it's nicely staged, also staging. Holy crap. Guys, you need to stage your house. I know it's expensive. Selling a house is expensive. If it were cheap and everybody could do it, we wouldn't need real estate agents to negotiate all that Stuff.
To bring in and do the desig,n and do the photography, and marketing. If you don't do the staging, you're not gonna have a pretty looking house,e and people are not gonna come in. And then pricing is important, but look, this is original, well, maybe upgraded. Years ago. I don't see the kitchen.
The kitchen was upgraded back in the nineties. You have tile? Yeah, that might be original. And they just painted it, which is okay. There's nothing wrong with it. But look, don't ask a premium when your house hasn't been updated. Let's take a look at cooling central AC. So at least you have that going for you.
But the original list price was. 2.3. Now you're at 2.2 and you're at, after a month, you're shooting yourself in the foot. Okay.
Sausalito 30 Million Listing
Bridgeway Drive in Sausalito. Price decrease. Okay, so here's the thing with this house right here: you're attracting the market with this house right here.
You should be a market maker. This is in Sausalito. There's not a whole lot of $30 million houses for sale in Sausalito, right? There's. One. And then in Tiburon, there are three. So those are your closest comps, but it's in a different town altogether. This has to be a market maker. So when you look at this house, it has to be beautiful.
It has to be right. And if you come in with a high price and then you decrease it, you're signaling to the market that you're not a market maker signaling like, let's get this thing sold. It's a beautiful house. If I had $30 million to spare, maybe I would do it. They dropped the price. Why would they go from 28 to 28?
I don't know. This is still a beautiful house. Everything about this house is gorgeous. I would love this house because it's on the water. Your view is the bay. You have San Francisco and everything there.
I am not a big fan of the zebra skin thing, but whatever. Yeah. That's gorgeous, guys.
Yeah. Nice. There you go. You have $30 millionlyingg around, and you wanna buy a house on the water? Let me know. Let's go take a look. Let. let's get you approved and start looking for houses. This checklist, when you download it, gives you all the things to look for in multiple homes.
So if you wanna look at air conditioning and kitchen and bathrooms and cracks and walls and all that other stuff, it gives you something to take a look at outside of, Ooh, pretty. Or, I like the floor plan. It lets you get down to the nitty-gritty and lets you walk through all the little things and figure out which house best fits your needs.
So download it.
County Stats and Affordability
All right, and then nothing else really going crazy right here outside of, we closed $428 million in sit, houses last week. So anyway, we're at $2.4 million average sales price in San Jose, in Santa Clara County. That's crazy. And people are squawking about 1.6 to 1.8. There you go. Puts that into perspective, right? Solano is the lowest at 618. If you can't afford a million-dollar house, maybe we can get you a nice house in Solano or San Benito, San Benito's 871.
There are a lot of houses out there, guys that you could buy, that you can afford, right? And why do I point that out? Well, Solano is about the same pricing as Las Vegas, Austin, and DFs. So you go outside of the Bay Area, and that's the kind of pricing you can expect. Six to 800,000. Yes, you can buy a house for $500,000.
Wrap Up and Sign Off
That's it for now. Thanks for watching. We'll see you out there.
Please like and share!
Vito Scarnecchia
Real Estate Broker, Veteran, Dad
DRE#: 01407676
408-705-6817
Vitos@abitano.com
FREE DESKTOP APPRAISAL https://www.propertyrate.com/agent/vitoscarnecchia
If you are moving ANYWHERE in the world - Let me know! I know a LOT of AMAZING Agents!
🔴 Willow Glen's five most expensive homes https://youtu.be/3A_E2ck0ePg
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